COLD AND DRY

With this winter of disappointments its pick your poison. Do you want it warm and wet or do you want it cold and dry. Both are equally depressing in my opinion, but to tell you the truth I would rather have warm and wet because at least you know that there won't be any snow. This type of weather pattern is killing because there is nothing worse than having a storm go out to sea, which is happening right now and will happen again on Thursday.

There will be some snow tonight, but the operative word is "some." Some places will see snow showers, while others see scattered flurries. If you see a steadier snow shower tonight, you may pick up a coating to an inch, but thats about it. Then partly cloudy and then the miss Thursday will usher in the coldest air we've seen in years. Lows on Friday morning will be widespread in the below zero range. It will be battery killing cold. Highs on Friday will be only about 5 to 10 degrees above in SNE and -5 to 5 above in NNE. It will be ridiculously cold with a biting north wind as well, making it feel in the -15 to -30 degree range in the afternoon from South to North. Thereafter, we "warm" up immediately on Saturday with highs around 30 and then Sunday we will be in the 30's.

So, to repeat myself, cold and dry will be the rule and dangerous cold will be here by Friday. I don't think a map is necessary for tonight's event, so don't expect one later on.

ANOTHER MAJOR LEAGUE DISAPPOINTMENT

It is now looking clearer to me anyway that our Thursday storm that yesterday at this time looked to be an absolute monster, is now going to be getting its act together way too far offshore and just giving SNE very minimal effects. This forecast is still a good 96 to 100 hours away from verifying, but pretty much once we get inside of 84 hours and especially 72 hours, these tracks pretty much get etched in stone one way or another. Basically this is how the computer models worked this thing yesterday through today.

Yesterday's models...

00z: Showing a monster EC storm with heavy snow inland, rain coast, then over to a blizzard. (GOOD)

06z: Backed off with minimal QPF. Storm development offshore. (BAD)

12z: Raging EC Blizzard again. Storm development perfect of I-95 special. (VERY GOOD)

18z: Backed way off. Overall flow much more progressive. (BAD)

Today's Models...

00z: Very similar to 1/20 18z. (BAD)

06z: A little better with inverted trough bringing eastern NE some snows. (STILL BAD THOUGH)

12z: Gawd awful. Storm development way off into the Northern Atlantic. Just wind from it. (WORST RUN YET!)

So, as you can see, the GFS is starting to trend in the wrong direction for snow lovers. The European model has been like this for the past day and a half now and yesterday's JMA showed a complete miss as well. So, I am just about to stick a fork in Thursday's once promising looking storm, barring a miracle.

One thing the 12z GFS and NAM shows is a little snow for Tuesday with an upper level low coming through NY State into SNE with a little moisture being thrown off the Atlantic at us. I want to see more runs of the models before really going for this, but it is not out of the question that everyone is fair game for a nice coating to perhaps a couple of fluffy of inches out of this one. Wouldn't that be a nice surprise.

Long range. After Thursday's big miss, we go back into the freezer for next weekend. Any miracles and I will be sure to post something. For now, its a no go on Thursday's storm.

The Chill Dominates

The chilly weather will dominate through this weekend and all of next week. A chill that we will have to get used to because it looks like this chilly pattern we just entered could last through Valentine's Day and may even go right through February. Tomorrow will feature partly cloudy skies for all of us getting last minute chips and dip and making the last rounds to the liquor stores before the Pats - Colts game. It shouldn't be brutally cold or nearly as windy as it is today with temperatures around 30. Gametime in Indianapolis will feature some light snow, but it doesn't matter as they'll be in the nice 72 degree RCA Dome.

Dry and cold weather continues through midweek with temperatures generally in the upper 20's to lower 30's with partly cloudy skies. Dull, boring weather is dominating. That may change by the end of next week, I am eye-ing Thursday, especially Thursday night into Friday, for a change of this dull, boring weather, but that is still 5 - 6 days away and that is plenty of time for the forecast to change. As we saw with the last storm, it wasn't totally resolved on the computer models until the thing actually started. For now, I am playing the conservative route and just throw it out there that there may be a potent coastal storm sometime late this upcoming week. Just throw it in the back of your mind.

Well, it looks like I covered the forecast today, and there is nothing much else to talk about. Try not getting blown away today with the wind gusts approaching 50 mph.

TOTAL BUST...

Don't I have my head in between my tail. I will admit it. I totally busted the forecast last night and blew it in a big way for most N&W. SE of Boston was mostly rain and got that, but to the NW, I totally blew it. There was nowhere near 2-5" just N&W of Boston. I live 12 mi NW of Boston and saw a skim coating washed away overnight and this morning with a snow shower move through around 9AM. Lemonster got about an inch, but other than that, my forecast was a BUST.

The forecast remains quiet and cold, allbeit windy tomorrow with a High Wind Watch as winds may gust to between 45 - 55mph. Windchills tomorrow night may be around zero to 15 below. Cold continues into early next week with a storm heading out south of us on Tuesday that may deposit a few inches on the Capital, believe it or not. Thereafter, we may go into a stormy pattern with a blocking pattern with cold and storms developing off the coast and riding up the coast, so we could get some interesting weather late next week. However, I will be playing the extremely conservative route with this one and not overforecast it, like I have done with the past two storms.

Its official. This winter just plain blows.

UPDATED SNOWFALL

The more east trend of the storm peaked last night and has since returned some precip to areas of western New England. Here, I think it will be an all snow event, but you will not get into the heavy duty precip like areas further east. Here I am expecting a good 1-2" with isolated spots getting around 3", especially Putman, CT, may see up to 3".

Further east we get to Worcester. From Worcester to just inside Route 128, this is where the "jackpot" for this storm will be. Precip will blossom on this area and snowfall could get locally heavy just in time for the morning commute. All said and done, a gloppy, 2-4" is likely, again with an isolated spot picking up 5". Someone N&W of Portsmouth, NH may wind up with closer to 6" of snow.

East of the "jackpot" zone, this is where it is tricky. I have moved it a tad to the east, but am still keeping the city of Boston on the line between the mix and the mostly rain to the SE. Here, you will likely start as snow, quickly turn to rain and may quickly turn back to snow just in time to get the last moderate to heavy band to go through with perhaps a coating to an inch. All said and done here, I put a general 1-2" of snow, but most of it will be washed away. SE of here, you don't have to worry about this one. All rain in the green area. Sorry.

The true "jackpot" with this storm will be northeast Maine, Downeast Maine, with perhaps as much as 10-18" of white gold. Much of Maine at this time from just inland of Portland to Caribou, including Bangor is under a Winter Storm Watch for possibly 6"+. Some will get much more than that and see near Blizzard conditions at the height of the storm. Enjoy it.

Bottom line, the snow moves in overnight in SNE around 1-3AM. It only lasts about six hours, but it could be an intense snow for about 2-3 of those hours, so stay tuned. Further north into NH and ME, expect the storm to move in late morning to early afternoon from south to north, but in northern Maine, the snow may continue into Saturday morning with near Blizzard conditions Friday night. Ski areas will do great with this one. I would not be surprised if one of the resorts picks up a quick 20" of powder out of this one. Again, enjoy it. I will.

More on the extended forecast, which stays extremely wintery with more chances of snow later.

WINTER STORM FRIDAY

A nice little snowstorm is on the way for SNE. As always, we will have to be watching the rain/snow line with this one. This line will be mighty important because just to the west and north of it, that is where the heaviest snowfall totals may be. Right now I have a good swath of 2-4" of snow for western New England. The "jackpot with this storm will be to the north and west of Boston by about 15 to 20 miles. A solid accumulation of 4-7" of heavy wet snow looks likely. The pink area is the wild card. The rain/snow line will be dancing around this region. We could see widely varying amounts of total snow. I will start as snow and then may transition to rain and then back to a heavy thumping snow on the backside of this system. Possible. For this area, I did not put an accumulation because we could wind up with nearly nothing or wind up with over a half a foot of wet snow. Its too close to call. SE of there, including Boston, it will be a brief period of snow, accumulating very lightly. Then it will transition to rain with temperatures in the mid - upper 30's at Logan and lower 40's on the Cape. Friday night we may see a flash freeze in areas that warm up enough to get some melting and rain during the storm. Temperatures will drop like a rock into the single digits and teens Friday night when the storm pulls into the Gulf of Maine where the northern part of that state will have blizzard conditions with 6-12"+ of powder.

More details on this storm later.

COLDEST WE'VE SEEN IN YEARS!

The coldest weather we have seen in two winters is on the way to New England as we speak. This morning temperatures were around 35-40 degrees across eastern SNE. Now temperatures are ranging from the mid to upper 20's in northern MA to lower 30's elsewhere. Its only going down further from here. Tonight temperatures will hit rock bottom, ranging from around 0 in Worcester County to around 10 in the city of Boston. Then tomorrow we will not see highs make it out of the mid to upper 10's all across SNE. The Cape may even see some ocean effect snow due to a strong north wind. Could we be talking about accumulating snow on the Cape tomorrow? I would say a good coating to an inch is possible especially from points Chatham up to Provincetown.

We will see an amazing turn around Thursday with highs rebounding all the way into the lower 30's after morning temperatures will range from 5 - 15 degrees. Then Thursday night, all eyes will be on the South. We will be watching a storm getting its act together south of the coastal waters of North Carolina. This storm will be getting together quickly and will be moving up the coast at a fairly rapid pace. Now the next question is how close will this storm system make it to the SNE coast? I think it will be coming close enough to give inland areas a light to moderate snowstorm. The coastal areas are the wild card with this system as they will be borderline between rain and snow due to the abnormally warm waters off our coastline. Water temperatures off the SNE coast are ranging from the lower to mid 40's, a good 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Besides that, I think inland areas are in line for a fairly significant snowstorm on Friday, with several inches possible. Many media outlets may be shying away from this right now, but if the GFS and NAM models continue to show what they are showing now, they will not longer be able to play the conservative, safe route and they will have to go out on a limb and say that we are getting this. I must say that NECN meteorologist is alluding to this storm, so I'll give some credit to him. I am sure that Barry Burbank of CBS 4 Boston will be hollering about this storm by tomorrow morning if the maps are still showing it.

I would like to hear what you guys think of this storm and please post your thoughts. Any help forecasting this would be greatly appreciated. If the NAM and GFS keep showing what they are showing by 18z tonight, I will be making my first snowfall accumulation map on this system, which believe it or not, is only two and a half days away. Surprise snowstorm, anyone?

SNOWSTORM FRIDAY?

I have been watching this potential storm threat for a couple of days now, but have been preoccupied with this dud of a storm that is going through now. The GFS has been showing a storm for a while now and I had it in the 6 day yesterday. Here it is. The coastal. This is from the 06z GFS. There are a lot of factors playing into this that will give us a good storm. One is that it is going to be getting a lot colder with the NAO going nuetral at this time. A lot of factors still have to come in to make this happen, but if the models are still showing this tomorrow night, you bet we'll see some snow.

The Week Ahead...

A WINTER WONDERLAND (way up North)

I have updated the forecasted accumulations. I have downgraded for everybody as there will be just too much darn warm air involved. Yesterday, there were two camps. One for a good snowstorm, the GFS, and one for a good rainstorm, the NAM. Well, this morning, the GFS has cracked under the pressure and now looks just as warm if not warmer than the NAM at the current time. So, for this, plus with the help of fellow blogger Joel, I have decided to downgrade these numbers considerably. Read 'em and weep. Its mostly rain south of the city. A few pockets of freezing rain may be entrenched in some colder places, but they will likely be scooped out. NW of the city and into much of northern and central MA, we will have a brief period of some mixed precipitation. We could get some freezing rain or sleet, but that will change to rain. NW of there, there will be a longer period of mixed precip, so travel could become dangerous. NW of there, expect snow on the onslaught, which will change to a mix then back to snow briefly at the end. Everyone has a chance of some snow at the end to pick up a light accumulation, but the models aren't really showing this ATTM, so I will choose to leave it out. Thats all for now. SNE, you got screwed again!

Thereafter, it turns frigid with highs in the upper 10's to lower 20's on Wednesday, before "warming" to near 30 by late week, before another shot of Arctic cold next weekend.

Stay tuned to the latest information on this developing winter storm for New England and finally GO PATS!