HURRICANE DEAN UPDATE: TARGET JAMAICA?

HURRICANE DEAN UPDATE 1PM...

"...DEAN MOVING AWAY FROM LESSER ANTILLES AND STRENGTHENING...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE...DOMINICA...AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BEDISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGINISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS INEFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...SABA...ST.EUSTATIUS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA...ST.MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...

THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA HASBEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLICHAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNINGALONG THE SOUTH COAST FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICANREPUBLIC BORDER.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CABO BEATATO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANEWATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HAITI FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLICBORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLEWITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.AT 11AM AST...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRENADA ANDITS DEPENDENCIES HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDINGJAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESSOF DEAN.FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITORPRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATEDNEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.6 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES...170 KM...WEST OF MARTINIQUE AND ABOUT 350 MILES...565 KM...SOUTHEASTOF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND THISMOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS TRACKWILL KEEP DEAN OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THESAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THENEXT 24 HOURS AND DEAN IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE.HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROMTHE CENTER...

AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185MILES...295 KM.LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCEHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES.STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM DEAN OVERPUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO5 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AREEXPECTED IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF10 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.

THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...14.6 N...62.6 W. MOVEMENTTOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH.MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB.AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANECENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500PM AST."

As you can from the map above all signs are pointing to a Jamaica landfall or close to it on Sunday PM. This will be a very dangerous Category 4 storm by then with winds close to 140 mph. A very major hurricane. Pressures have dropped dramatically with the last run of the updates and this is a sign that this storm is about to undergo EXPLOSIVE STRENGTHENING, both in possibly size and more likely wind strength and how far hurricane force winds extend from the center. No visible eye is seen in the center of the storm yet, but I would say that within the next 12-24 hours a visible eye will be there. Winds of 105 mph will likely come up to 120-135 mph with the eye formation as well and it will happen very quick. It will not take more than 3-6 hours for the eye to appear, once it starts to form.

Here is an elevation map of the island of Jamaica. As you can see, Jamaica in general is rather mountainous, away from their famous beaches and coastline. The most mountains are on the ends of the island, both on the east and west sides of Jamaica. If Hurricane Dean goes south of the island, the entire island will be pretty much battered by the worst winds of the storm as the strongest winds and threat of tornadoes are always on the right side of the storm's path. A more northerly track north of the island could limit damage to the popular tourist destination. Only time will tell what track relative to the island Dean will infact take, but either way Jamaica looks to be getting the brunt from a strong Cat 3 (at the least), to a very formidable Cat 4 storm with winds of nearly 140 mph sustained at the center with gusts in excess of 160 mph. The mountains will surely make sure that the heaviest rainfall amounts are accumulated. Rainfall in excess of 10" is likely worst case scenario and this would likely cause deadly mudslides. If you know any at resorts, I am sure their vacation will be postponed and the island will be evacuated today and tomorrow and by Sunday it will be too late. Jamaica away from the resorts is a very poor country and people do not have access to strong shelters, the ones you'd find in the US. This could be a very big humanitarian disaster, but only time will tell. I hate to be a doomcaster, but all the signs are there for a major disaster and I hope the people at the highest levels are taking appropriate action to ensure the safety of countless lives.

Jamaica is only part one of this storm. After affecting Jamaica, it will head back over the steamy waters and likely come close to Cancun, Mexico another very popular tourist destination and then from there it heads into the Gulf and its anybody's guess where it goes from there.