WINTER STORM LOOMING

Very good read on the possible storm around here the day after Christmas. This is from the Boston Forecast Discussion.

"FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FORMIDABLE EAST COAST STORM STARTING LATE XMAS DAY INTO THE NIGHT OF THE 26TH. THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE IN NEAR-PERFECT AGREEMENT TONIGHT AT H+120 AFTER VERY LARGE DIFFERENCES ON THEIR RUNS 24 HOURS AGO. BASICALLY...BOTH PUT A 985-ISH LOW JUST E OF BOSTON BY TUE EVENING. UNFORTUNATELY FOR SNOW LOVERS...THERE WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO BE A SCARCITY OF COLD AIR.IN ANY EVENT...FIRST THINGS FIRST. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH FIRST SYSTEM SHOULD BE QUICKLY MOVING OUT EARLY SAT EVENING...IF NOT GONE BY THEN. BLUSTERY NWLY FLOW UNDER CLEARING SKIES SAT NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW.SUN...XMAS EVE...BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. PERHAPS A PERIOD OF BKN STRATO-CU OVER NORTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND 850 TEMPS JUST ABOVE ZERO SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO AROUND 50 AT MOST LOCALES.HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AT THE SFC SUN NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NEAR-SEASONABLE LOWS SHOULD BE EXPECTED.SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH STATES SUN NIGHT...AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON XMAS DAY. MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS IS THE WAVE THAT ALLOWS FOR GULF CYCLOGENESIS SUN...WHICH CONTINUES UP THE COAST SUN NIGHT AND MON. A SECOND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE IS THEN PROGGED TO FOLLOW IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FIRST...WHICH IS THE STRONGEST OF THE TWO. THIS IS THE ONE THAT LOOKS TO REALLY SPIN UP THIS STORM AS THE WAVE PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM. IT'S STILL TOO EARLY TO PREDICT THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE A PRETTY FORMIDABLE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE MOVING UP THE COAST XMAS NIGHT...AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON TUE...EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST TUE NIGHT.WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON XMAS DAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AND AS EVERYONE KNOWS BY NOW...COLD AIR HAS BEEN HARD TO FIND SO FAR THIS DECEMBER AND IT LOOKS LIKE THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE. THUS...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM SOUTH TO NORTH XMAS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. EXTREME NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE COAST MON NIGHT...THE WARM AIR SHOULD HOLD TOUGH...SO EXPECT RAIN ACRS MOST OF THE CWA...EXCEPT PERHAPS NORTHWESTERN MOST ZONES. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 30S FOR THE MOST PART...EXCEPT PERHAPS THE CAPE/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST WHERE LOWS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE IN THE 40S...MAYBE EVEN 50.IT'S HARD TO SAY WHERE THE LOW WILL TRACK EXACTLY LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS THE LOW PASSING OVER THE SOUTH COAST WHILE THE 00Z OP GFS AND 00Z ECMWF HAVE IT PASSING INLAND...THEN EXITING THE COASTLINE BETWEEN BOSTON AND PORTLAND EARLY TUE EVENING. THIS IS ACTUALLY EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT FOR A 5 DAY FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY THIS IS LIKELY TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE...AND I WOULD EXPECT SOME MODEL FLIP-FLOPPING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.WILL FORECAST RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WEST TO EAST DURING TUE AFTERNOON INLAND AND TUE EVENING TOWARD THE COAST. TOUGH TO SAY HOW MUCH SNOW WE'LL GET...BUT IF THE LOW TRACKS OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA COULD GET SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE TUE AFTN AND TUE NIGHT AS IT RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES AND MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. LOTS OF TIME TO LOOK AT THIS. IN A NUTSHELL...MAINLY RAIN STARTING LATE XMAS DAY THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF TUE...CHANGING TO SNOW LATE TUE AFTN/NIGHT. WINDY TOO. COULD GET VERY GUSTY AS THIS LOW DEPARTS.STILL LOTS OF POSSIBLE SCENARIOS WITH THIS LOW AND IT'S TRACK."