QUICK HITTING POTENT CLIPPER...

Doing a quick little post this morning before the snow starts falling here outside of Boston. I thought I would show you the radar of the upcoming clipper with its snow shield. The red line corresponds to where it is actually snowing right now. For a clipper, that is pretty good. One reason for the great saturation of the atmosphere was that a feeder band of "virga" snow moved through our area last night, moistening up the atmoshere, making it so that now when the snow moves overhead of you, it only takes a little bit to get it snowing. This snow event will be a quick 3-5, maybe 6 hour period of light to perhaps moderate snow. Visibilities will come down to about 1/2 mi to 3/4 mi during the peak. I was looking at observations in Upstate New York around Saranac Lake, and they were reporting heavy snow with a visibility of just 1/4 mile. So we will get into the "action" even here in SNE. Snowfall accumulations are about the same as yesterday...maybe an isolated inch or two more common even down towards interior Rhode Island. (NE RI) Also, NW Worcester County and NW MA may see a scattered 3" amount out of this system. Still going with the "Jackpot" area in central VT, where 2-4" of snow may accumulate. SW NH may see 2-3". Have fun in the snow. I won't mention the bad news, aka...the extended forecast...today.

BIGGEST SNOW EVENT OF THE SEASON!

Timing of the event is between late morning Saturday until 3-5 PM. Enjoy.

MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE TO COLDER WEATHER 10 - 14 DAYS AWAY

Here is the latest forecast of the NAO. Notice that by the end of the period, about 14 days, or 2 weeks away, that it will be transitioning from highly positive towards nuetral to perhaps slightly negative. We usually get our largest storms when the NAO transitions through POS from NEG or through NEG from POS. This will be very interesting to see if this should really pan out. I have been seeing this forecast for about 2 - 3 days now and we could be seeing a "PATTERN CHANGE" finally. Well, I hope so. Until then, after the New Year's Day "surprise" we will likely go back to our current weather pattern of turning mild for several days to cool down to slightly above normal for a day or two to warm back up with limited snow for at least the next 2 weeks. After that, we could see our long awaited change back to COLD AND SNOWY? We will wait and see if the long range computer models start to show this potential pattern change. No dancing in the streets just yet. If you have anything to add to this, post a comment and let me know and we can try to forecast this change together before all the major media outlets and other forecasters do.

NEW YEAR'S DAY MESS?

After yesterday's snow flurries/showers/squalls, today have turned out to be a rather chilly day with highs in the lower 40's, which is still about five degrees above average. Normally, Boston should be around 38 degrees this time of year. We may actually get there tomorrow afternoon with a projected high of 38 degrees for Boston. We stay there again on Saturday with the possibility of a few snow flurries or snow showers widely scattered about the area. It looks like the best chances of seeing any snow Saturday will be north of the Mass Pike and especially in Central and Northern New England. A few favored ski resorts may actually get an inch to a couple quick inches of snow on the day Saturday. Wouldn't that be a nice surprise for the ski operators. There is a few snow showers up that way today in central-northern New Hampshire and SW Maine. A dusting to an inch or two cannot be ruled out with highs in the lower 30's at the bases of the mountains to mid - upper 20's at the summits.

Sunday now looks like it will be a mostly dry day with increasing high cloudiness ahead of the next storm system, slated to arrive sometime in the predawn hours of New Year's Day, Monday.

Here is the map for early Monday morning. Hopefully, this is past the midnight hour with many people outside celebrating New Year's and seeing the ice sculptures on the Common. This year looks to be fairly good for the sculptures with decently cool highs in the upper 30's with lows on New Year's Eve expected to drop into the upper 20's in the city to mid 20's in the suburbs. This will set us up for the storm system moving into our area on Monday morning. Here is the map for early Monday morning and it is showing much of MA above the 0C line with frozen precipitation falling. This could be freezing rain or sleet, closest to the line with a mixture of freezing rain/sleet/snow possible north of the Pike. Newest information actually is showing the possibility of this storm system starting as a brief period of light to moderate snowfall before turning to more of a wintry mix. Nonetheless, all wintry precipitation will turn to rain by Monday around noon, except in the deepest valleys where the shallow cold air may keep temperatures around 31 or 32 with freezing rain. These situations are very tough to forecast and can be called low confidence forecasts.

COOL TEMPS FOR A COUPLE DAYS AT LEAST

Thought I would get in a quick post today to update you on the potential New Year's Day storm. Still looks like it will be a mainly rainstorm, however temperature profiles have trended colder with an expansive high pressure located over SE Canada, near Montreal. This high pressure system will actually keep the precip at bay for a couple of days, by the way it looks right now. Yesterday it looked like rain/snow/sleet would be moving in late Friday night and into Saturday, continuing for a few days. Now it looks like we will have a mostly sunny day on Saturday with increasing clouds on Sunday. With the storm being surpressed to the south for a couple of days by a Canadian high pressure system, I have trended the temperatures colder for Friday - Saturday. Mainly in the upper 30's. We will warm up somewhat on Sunday with highs in the lower 40's and rain developing late in the day. This will be similar to the setup we had Christmas Day. It may begin as a brief period of some sleet/freezing rain, northwest of Route 495, but will quickly transition to plain rain during the day Monday, all the way up to central and northern New England. The storm will come to an end on Monday night and Tuesday morning with leftover snow showers in the mountains of northern New England, with perhaps a small accumulation? Let's hope so. Anyhow, another pool of cooler air will move into all of New England Tuesday with highs back to seasonable levels, in the 30's. Other than that, there is no risk for any major, or even minor - moderate snowstorms for SNE in the near future. Maybe a few flurries this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon.

SKI RESORTS SMILING TONIGHT...

Ok...now this is getting a little ridiculous. Another Christmas has come and gone and we are back to where we started. A snowless winter. I don't know what is causing this awful winter, whether it be El Nino, the strong PAC jet soaring across the country, or global warming, but it is starting to get depressing. This is just not a Boston winter at all. This type of winter has been comparable to an average Richmond, VA or Raleigh, NC average winter. Not that of a New England or Boston winter which is famous for its wintertime snowscapes. This is just getting sad.

Now that I have got that out of my system, lets look to the extended forecast to see if my prayers will be answered. In short, no. Don't get me wrong, snow will be falling in New England tomorrow and Winter Storm Warnings are posted for the spine of the Green Mountains and northern Vermont for 7-11" of snow, with Winter Weather Advisories for the valleys of Vermont and northern New Hampshire and much of Maine for about 3-5" of snow with ice/sleet further south. In northernmost Maine, Snow Adviories have been posted for about a good 4-7" snowfall from this storm system. Its snow and the ski areas desperately need it, but for a late December snowstorm in Northern New England, this ain't much, ain't much at all. This storm once looked very promising for a good 12"+ a few days ago, but has since weakened and lessened on the charts. Oh well, ski country will take what they can get and they will be making more snow with the colder temperatures forecasted.

Speaking of the colder temperatures, its going to go to seasonable levels around here by Wednesday through Thursday with temperatures generally in the mid-upper 30's in SNE to upper 20's to lower 30's in NNE. It will actually feel like wintertime for a change instead of this constant spring feeling we've delt with since it seems forever. Friday we will begin to moderate again ahead of the next storm. What else is new?

It looks like we will be having a wet holiday weekend next weekend to ring in the new year. It looks like a moderate to strong storm system will be taking shape in the middle Plain states and throw Gulf moisture all the way up the East Coast with moderate to heavy rains and warm temperatures once again. Too warm for snow, possibly even for NNE as well. It looks, at this point, that it will be another Great Lakes cutter, which will be a similar setup for precip type as we are dealing with tonight and tomorrow, but this one may be a tad warmer. So early call on this one is a mostly RAIN EVENT for SNE with a possible RAIN/MIX EVENT in NNE and the mountains. I know this is a very important weekend coming up with many "unsober" people driving Sunday night, so I will keep you intuned on the latest thinkings of this forecast.

Well, I think that is all for tonight and will just end it by saying Merry Christmas. I hope you all had a good one.

I Hope Everyone Has a GREAT Christmas and Best Wishes to All

Taking a break from the weather for a bit, I just wanted to wish everyone a Merry Christmas in case I forget tomorrow in all of the hecticness of the day and forecasting of this upcoming storm system.

Best wishes too all and I hope everyone gets what they want and just have a great and healthy holiday.

BALMY WEATHER CONTINUES...

I am a little pressed for time today, but hope this eases your hopes. There is NO snow coming Tuesday. We are on the warm side of the storm and will see 60's and rain/thunderstorms. No snow, not even on the back side. We just don't get backlash snows from inland runners because in order to get the snow we would have to have it survive the trip over the mountains, which is unlikely. So no snow is coming, just springlike air.

All the snow will be confined to Kentucky, West Virginia and Cleveland and Upstate New York. Foot plus of windwhipped heavy wet snow there.

Sorry SNE guys. Better luck next storm and as Ray would say....NEXTT!!!!

NO WHITE CHRISTMAS THIS YEAR...

Well, another year and another brown Christmas for us in SNE. Areas to our west will likely see a white Christmas. We can pretend we live in the Rockies, Denver, New Mexico, northern Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, and the NW part of the Great Lakes. All of these places will likely see a white Christmas this year. Boston, we'll wait another year. I know you've been hearing talk of the possible post Christmas Day storm for the East Coast and I will get to that in a minute. First, I want to talk about the December 23rd storm. Also known as tomorrow's storm. It is a mild rainstorm. Highs tomorrow will soar to between 48-53 degrees with heavy rain throughout, heaviest in the morning with perhaps a widespread one inch plus of rainfall. No snow with this one, not even in ski country. Sorry.

Christmas Eve looks perfect for last minute shopping. No snowstorms to get in our way, yet. Highs should range from the upper 40's to mid 50's along the coastal plain with a nice warming downslope wind off the mountains. Evening temperatures should be nice and mild in the 40's with midnight mass temperatures around 40-45 with dry conditions. Santa will have no trouble contending the weather this year in SNE, as it will be a dry night and dry morning on the 25th. Storm clouds do not move in until about 12-2PM on Christmas Day. At this point, it may be snowing from northern Mississippi to Tennessee to Kentucky. Not good news for us as the storm will be forming and strengthening, but looks to go far enough inland for a mild rainstorm once again for most of the East Coast on Monday night into Tuesday.

There are 3 major possible scenarios and tracks for this first considerable winter storm to take.

TRACK ONE: This is the track furthest west, west of the Apps. I will say right out that this track, ATTM, does not look likely, but has some support from the models. A track like this would mean bad news for major cities like Nashville, TN; Cincinnatti; Indianapolis; Detroit; and perhaps as far west as Chicago. Northern Mississippi and Alabama could see some snow as well as NE Arkansas seeing a healthy dose of snow. This track is only if the two streams, northern and southern, phase very early in the storm's development and rocket it up west of the Apps. In the cities mentioned above, easily 6"+ of heavy snow would be likely. Something to watch.

TRACK TWO: Track two is also a very exciting track as well. Track two brings the storm up from the NW Gulf of Mexico, amped with tons of Gulf moisture and tracks it along the Apps. Good news for the Smokey's in TN; Apps from NC to WV; snow would also be falling from the Tennessee Valley through the Ohio Valley through Michigan and central and western PA and upstate NY with healthy snows again probably in the 6-10" category for the cities to a foot plus along the mountains. A track up the Apps usually means an energy transfer from the initial storm to a storm redeveloping along the Atlantic coast. This looks like what would happen. The primary storm would then become entrenched of the Delmarva and rocket up the Hudson Valley. This track could change rain to snow in eastern PA and even NYC's NW suburbs. This will enhance the snow in the western NY area, namely Syracuse, Utica, ect; with enhanced snowfall totals surpassing 12 inches likely. Northern New England would also eventually get into the act with several inches of snow on the backside as well. You know those lucky mountain in northern VT, and NH, and ME that would benefit with the downsloping snows from the backside of a powerhouse 985ish type storm with strong winds. Ski resorts here could easily see 10-20 inches of snow.

TRACK THREE: Track three is a track that has about a 30-40 percent chance of panning out. This track would involve a much weaker storm that would kind of just stay progressive and jut out off the Virgina coast and skirt to the south of the Cape and Islands. This "weaker" storm" would limit the amount of places affected by this storm, but would ensure a decent swath of a 2-4" or 3-6" snow from central-eastern PA; NW of NYC; into much of SNE. We would not see powerhouse numbers, but if this storm were a little stronger than forecasted, somebody would likely wind up with a solid 6"+.

As you can tell, there is much going on and I am going to put the BOTTOM LINE on this storm right now. There will be a moderate to major winter storm...Category 3 or 4...early next week and places will get decent snowfall with a moisture loaded system. Where it tracks and how strong it is, is yet to be seen. By Sunday, I would guess that all the models will start to fall into place and we will have a better idea of what to expect with this potential monster of a storm.

I know I am praying for Track Three!

WINTER STORM LOOMING

Very good read on the possible storm around here the day after Christmas. This is from the Boston Forecast Discussion.

"FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FORMIDABLE EAST COAST STORM STARTING LATE XMAS DAY INTO THE NIGHT OF THE 26TH. THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE IN NEAR-PERFECT AGREEMENT TONIGHT AT H+120 AFTER VERY LARGE DIFFERENCES ON THEIR RUNS 24 HOURS AGO. BASICALLY...BOTH PUT A 985-ISH LOW JUST E OF BOSTON BY TUE EVENING. UNFORTUNATELY FOR SNOW LOVERS...THERE WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO BE A SCARCITY OF COLD AIR.IN ANY EVENT...FIRST THINGS FIRST. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH FIRST SYSTEM SHOULD BE QUICKLY MOVING OUT EARLY SAT EVENING...IF NOT GONE BY THEN. BLUSTERY NWLY FLOW UNDER CLEARING SKIES SAT NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW.SUN...XMAS EVE...BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. PERHAPS A PERIOD OF BKN STRATO-CU OVER NORTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND 850 TEMPS JUST ABOVE ZERO SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO AROUND 50 AT MOST LOCALES.HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AT THE SFC SUN NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NEAR-SEASONABLE LOWS SHOULD BE EXPECTED.SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH STATES SUN NIGHT...AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON XMAS DAY. MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS IS THE WAVE THAT ALLOWS FOR GULF CYCLOGENESIS SUN...WHICH CONTINUES UP THE COAST SUN NIGHT AND MON. A SECOND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE IS THEN PROGGED TO FOLLOW IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FIRST...WHICH IS THE STRONGEST OF THE TWO. THIS IS THE ONE THAT LOOKS TO REALLY SPIN UP THIS STORM AS THE WAVE PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM. IT'S STILL TOO EARLY TO PREDICT THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE A PRETTY FORMIDABLE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE MOVING UP THE COAST XMAS NIGHT...AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON TUE...EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST TUE NIGHT.WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON XMAS DAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AND AS EVERYONE KNOWS BY NOW...COLD AIR HAS BEEN HARD TO FIND SO FAR THIS DECEMBER AND IT LOOKS LIKE THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE. THUS...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM SOUTH TO NORTH XMAS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. EXTREME NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE COAST MON NIGHT...THE WARM AIR SHOULD HOLD TOUGH...SO EXPECT RAIN ACRS MOST OF THE CWA...EXCEPT PERHAPS NORTHWESTERN MOST ZONES. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 30S FOR THE MOST PART...EXCEPT PERHAPS THE CAPE/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST WHERE LOWS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE IN THE 40S...MAYBE EVEN 50.IT'S HARD TO SAY WHERE THE LOW WILL TRACK EXACTLY LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS THE LOW PASSING OVER THE SOUTH COAST WHILE THE 00Z OP GFS AND 00Z ECMWF HAVE IT PASSING INLAND...THEN EXITING THE COASTLINE BETWEEN BOSTON AND PORTLAND EARLY TUE EVENING. THIS IS ACTUALLY EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT FOR A 5 DAY FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY THIS IS LIKELY TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE...AND I WOULD EXPECT SOME MODEL FLIP-FLOPPING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.WILL FORECAST RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WEST TO EAST DURING TUE AFTERNOON INLAND AND TUE EVENING TOWARD THE COAST. TOUGH TO SAY HOW MUCH SNOW WE'LL GET...BUT IF THE LOW TRACKS OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA COULD GET SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE TUE AFTN AND TUE NIGHT AS IT RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES AND MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. LOTS OF TIME TO LOOK AT THIS. IN A NUTSHELL...MAINLY RAIN STARTING LATE XMAS DAY THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF TUE...CHANGING TO SNOW LATE TUE AFTN/NIGHT. WINDY TOO. COULD GET VERY GUSTY AS THIS LOW DEPARTS.STILL LOTS OF POSSIBLE SCENARIOS WITH THIS LOW AND IT'S TRACK."

RAINSTORM SATURDAY

Chilly temperatures tomorrow in SNE with highs in the low to mid 40's. It will still be above average and in fact will be the 12th day in a row that Boston has recorded above normal temps. With the heavy rains moving in tomorrow night, the temps will go back up into the 50's once again. Christmas Eve "Day" will be nice and mild with highs in the 50's and then chilling down a bit for Christmas Day. A potential Nor'easter moves in Mon. night into Tuesday with a mix of rain and snow NW and rain Boston. At least that what it looks like now. May continue into Wednesday. Nothing major.

A MILD THURSDAY

It was finally a average day today...kinda. Highs ranged from around 40 to 45 with a persistent breeze making it feel like the 30's. Nothing really to talk about, really not feeling that good of late. There are a couple of storm chances coming up. The first comes late Friday into Saturday with what looks to be a mostly rain event. It may start as a period of mixed precipitation over NW zones late Friday night as temperatures will be around the freezing mark. This mixed bag, if it does occur, will be shortlived and transition to all rain by Saturday morning. We could be talking about a soaking rain with perhaps 1/2" to 1" of rain. It will likely be rain for all of New England, barring the highest peaks in northern New England where there may be some snow accumulation. IE: Mount Washington, Mount Mansfield.

After Saturday's RAINSTORM, Christmas Eve looks to be mild with highs around or slightly over 50. Christmas Eve (night) will be mild and midnight masses will likely be in the upper 30's to lower 40's. This will set us up for a mild Christmas Day. Highs will be in the 40's, but a front will be approaching from the NW as an area of High Pressure will be spreading in marginal cold into New England.

Then it gets interesting...A storm system will be developing in the northern half of the Gulf of Mexico and will be accelerating northeastward through GA through western NC and VA. This storm track will likely bring some accumulating snows from Nashville, TN to parts of KY and WV. The low pressure will be off the coast of Norfolk, VA by Christmas Day, spreading rain along the coastal areas with wet snow possible near Washington DC. There will be a rain/snow line with this storm. It will be gaining strength as it really hugs the coastline. This hugging of the coast will likely flood most of SNE with enough mild air to keep most of area SE of Worcester and Boston, a mainly rain event. Thats how it looks right now. Most of the I-95 cities will have a mainly rain event, but we all may see a quick change to snow at the end Tuesday night. The details with this storm are still way up in the air, so don't take these as the final details on this possible storm. Things will most definitely change as you already know with previous forecasts of storms this winter. Its still 144+ hours out.

Stay tuned and Merry Christmas!

A CALIFORNIA TREAT

Another New England December day and another day approaching 60 degrees. This has pretty much become the norm. Tomorrow will be one of the nicest days since about last week. Skies will be mostly sunny with temperatures soaring to between 55-60. The Patriots are hosting the Houston Texans tomorrow at Gillette at 1PM. I am forecasting gametime temperatures to be at 59 degrees. During the course of the game it may nudge 60 and then fall through the mid 50's by the time it ends. Monday will be the last mild to warm day for a while as we will be having a short return to winter temperatures. Highs Monday will be around 50-55.

Monday night we will see a sprinkle or two and as the cold front moves through our area from the NW during the course of the night, those sprinkles may turn into a snowflake or two. Maybe enough moisture to squeeze out a snowshower in the hills of Worcester and Keene, NH. A dusting there maybe? Thats about it. I should at least mention that there is the smallest chance that with the NNW winds, we could see some OES on the outermost Cape during the evening hours of Tuesday with perhaps a coating of snow, but that is not what I am forecasting at the moment.

Wednesday will be mighty chilly around here with highs struggling to make it into the upper 20's in Worcester, to lower 30's around Boston, and mid-upper 30's on the South Coast and Cape. That will be all of the cold we will see as we will be pushing 40 on Thursday and then pushing 50-55 again on Friday with rain likely holding off now until Christmas "Eve" Eve. It looks like a storm will be heading well to our west, so we will be on the warm sector of the storm with showery rains and mild temperatures. Sorry, I wish I had better news. All you eastern weather forum guys will be going crazy with this forecast. I am too. I am too.

Thereafter, it may cool down slightly again after Christmas Day, but I see no reason why it would be anything more than a shortlived coolspell like what we will see on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week.

If you just moved to Boston and you think this is normal, I want to stick up for the Boston Winter and say this is definitely the exception. It is usually not like this. Hopefully, we will be able to show all you newcomers our true colors soon. Until then, enjoy our California treat.

SNOW DROUGHT CONTINUES...ANY HOPE?

What is going on? This is starting to get ridiculous. Being a snowlover, this is starting to become unbearable. It could be worse though. Reading a post from Accuweather, senior meteorologist John Kocet, has not seen a single snowfall of 3"+ in exactly one year Friday. Well, you must be thinking, is he from Atlanta, GA. No, maybe Dallas, TX. No, would you be surprised to find out that he is talking about State College, PA. State College is right in the middle of Pennsylvania. He has seen no significant snow in over one year, actually since last FALL! Amazing.

Our Winter 2006 - 2007 snow drought is continuing this week. We are not even coming close to having any type of snow. "When it rains, it pours." Highs tomorrow will be pushing the upper 50's - around 60! This is after today's front pushes through with about a tenth to three-tenths of an inch of rain from the South Coast all the way to Caribou, ME. No snow with this one, even on the highest mountain tops. The "Pacific" mild trend will continue into this weekend, with a cooler Saturday with temperatures in the upper 40's to around 50. Sunday, ahead of a cold front, we will be in the grips of a strong SSW flow, bringing in all sorts of mild air. Accompanying this extremely mild air will be a few widely scattered showers, but Sunday will not be a washout by any means. In fact, it will be a good day to get outside and soak up all of this warm air, surely an early Christmas gift. Sunday's highs, easily 55+. We could see a few 60 degree readings.

After the front goes through Sunday, expect cooler weather for Monday with highs in the mid 40's. We step down a little more Tuesday with highs in the mid-upper 30's, but at this point, it looks to be mostly dry with no snow through day 6-7. However, we could be taking a turn back to colder and snowier? weather as the NAO may be trending more negative during Christmas week. Are our prayers for cold and snow about to be answered? That answer will be unveiled in the days to come.

MILD TIMES CONTINUE..

Rain is moving in for tomorrow afternoon. Nothing heavy. Just some dampness. Its in at NOON and out by 5PM. Nothing major. After that mild times will continue with temperatures in the 50's. Next shot of real rains comes in around Monday night of next week.

Enjoy your week, will have limited posts as there is really ot much to talk about...except that there is only 11 days left of Christmas shopping. Enjoy the mild times.

MILD TIMES AHEAD...

Posting really quick...

But it looks like after yesterday's bust of a snow, mild air will dominate our forecast once again. Highs should be back into the 50's Sunday and Monday, a brief cooldown Tuesday with a backdoor coldfront from the NE, and then back to the mild stuff. Highs back to around 60 by late week. Rain will move in towards the end of the week, with a possible coastal rainstorm off the five day. It could lead us into colder times for after the December 19th period. We'll have to wait and see.

Otherwise, have a good Saturday night, and I will see you tomorrow.

HECTIC FRIDAY AM COMMUTE?

I have been watching this possible snowy situation for tonight for the past few days. An arctic cold front will be crossing our area later tonight into early tomorrow morning. Front will be accompanied by a drastic temperature drop and this will be enough instability to kickoff some snow showers and squalls tonight. Some of these squalls could be very heavy.

Currently, western Massachusetts and southern Vermont is under a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY for the potential of 3-8" of snow as reported by the NWS early this morning. I don't totally agree with this forecast as I think that most areas will see 3" or less. I suppose the highest peaks and mountain resorts may see up to 5-6", but that would be pushing it, even with the expected 15:1 or 18:1 ratio forecasted. Around here, we may see squalls giving us a light accumulation of snow. These "windex" events are extremely hard to forecast as one town may get blasted with near whiteout conditions for 10-20 minutes, while just down the road they barely see a flake. However, I believe that many will see at least some snow accumulation tonight, or at least see some flakes.

Around here I am expecting possible accumulations to be like this...

Boston Metro (Boston, Inside Route 495): Coating - 2"
Cape Cod (Including the Islands): Coating - 1"+ (ocean effect Fri???)
Rhode Island (North): Trace - 1" (South): Trace
Worcester County (Fitchburg, Orange, Springfield) Coating - 2"
Conneticut (Eastern): Trace - Coating (Litchfield Co.): 1-3"
Western MA (Berkshires): 2-4"
Southern VT: 2-5"
Southern NH (Nashua, Manchester, Derry): 1-2"

It is hard to go town by town with this one as it will be very localized, but many areas have a shot at seeing snow. Not a big event by any means, so did not even bother to post a snowfall map. Sanders may have to be used tomorrow morning and people may need to remember to drive on this stuff as many will be caught off guard tomorrow morning when they get home from work with temperatures in the mid 50's. Good luck to the uninformed. It will be a shock. Tomorrow will be the coldest day since last winter with highs ranging from 25-30 in southern New England and ranging from 15-25 in northern New England. Don't worry, it will warm up again and by Sunday all will be forgotten and melted as highs will be back into the 50's yet again.

2006 WINTER FORECAST CONTEST...

"New England Weather" run by Joel, www.sneweather.blogspot.com is running its annual winter forecast contest...

I said that I would post the details of the contest on this site so here they are:

Ok, so the 2006 Winter Forecast Contest is back. The directions are rather simple. You must predict the winter snowfall for the following cities (to the nearest whole number). Tie breaker will be the date of the last snowfall at Logan Airport, in Boston. So, here are the cities:

Boston (BOS)
Providence (PVD)
Hartford (BDL)
Worcester (ORH)
Bridgeport (BDR)
Nantucket (ACK)

Please email Joel your predictions (mattmfm@aol.com) or post them in the comments section.Contest closes on December 15, 2006. Joel will make a list of the contestants and their predictions after the contest closes.

Meanwhile, I hope to post soon, as there is some weather stuff to talk about, including some potential snow tomorrow night into Friday morning. Before you get too excited, let me tell you that its just a chance of snow showers and squalls with the passage of a front. Tomorrow will be milder with highs in the upper 40's to around 50. Friday after morning flurries may be hardpressed to get out of the 20's inland and above freezing in Boston and along the coast. Cold snap won't last long, moderating temperatures into the weekend. Highs back in the 50's by Sunday.

Make your predictions...

HOPE TO POST SOON...

Hi everyone. Mr. Foot's winter forecast finally came out today. It was a very nice read. I encourage all of you to go and read it. I pretty much agree with his forecast. I will be in Italy February 14-25th, so thats when we will probably see all of our snow.

But, I will not be able to post for a while, a few days or so, so until then, I encourage you all to go to New England Weather (sneweather.blogspot.com) or Foot's Forecast (footsforecast.blogspot.com) to find the latest on the forecast and find good reads. Two best sites for the weather.

Until we meet again, see you later.

DOWNGRADING FURTHER...

Sorry had to do it. I am trying not to be a model hugger, but the NAM is barely putting anyone NW of Boston under any kind of precip. This is just a nightmare forecast that has gotten forecasters all over the place. Best thing would have been to have just forgotten about it and move on, like I was feeling Thursday night, before Friday started the fun.

Better luck next time and I will leave the next word for Ray on this storm. The only thing we can hope for now NW of Boston is to at least see some snow flakes. Adios.

FIRST (little) SNOW ON THE WAY...

Sorry for taking so long to get this out there. I don't want to list my excuses, but, just say sorry for the delay.

Now for the snow. It has lost its punch from Friday afternoon. Thats where I got the forecast map from the last post. This thing, at that time, looked like a MONST-AH! Now, not so much. Looks like a little lamb. Snow will fall, mainly away from the coast, away from the Cape, and inside of Route 495. So if you meet these three requirements, expect 1-3" of snow. Not much, I know, but it will be the first time any of us have seen snow in our backyards since April 5th. Backside of snow will be around Springfield to Manchester, NH and into Maine. NAM, now is portraying the least amount of snow for areas NW of Boston...perhaps a coating to an inch on the grassy surfaces. GFS is better with perhaps a few inches all the way to Worcester. I took a road in the middle to give you this map. Cape, expect mostly rain and maybe a quick changeover to at least see your first flakes of the season. Sorry that 4-8" forecast didn't verify. Or maybe you are cheering it didn't.

Time table for this is light rain/mix NW moving in tonight. Then changes to a quick bout of snow for many other than the Cape with the main accumulation. Will likely end around 10AM to NOON...from NW to SE

Will post again if anything changes and won't wait two days to do so. There is a chance areas just WSW and WNW of Boston may have a SNOW ADVISORY posted this afternoon. I will keep you posted. I have a family party from around noon to 3PM, so hopefully nothing happens then and I'm so mad I'm missing the Pats game, but thats a different story.

HOLD ON NOW...WHAT ABOUT MONDAY!?

Okay, okay, okay, I have heard and read all of your messages now. I know you guys think I am crazy not immediately changing the forecast with the change in the track. The NAM came out today and it was pretty much going GANG-BUSTERS with lots of New England snow. However, with each run of the computer models, the outer Cape and the Islands may see some mixing in with rain, limiting snowfall accumualtions. Earlier today, it looked like someone from southern CT to Hyannis would have been able to see up to a foot of snow. NAM has started to back down from this hypothesis, with perhaps up to 4-8" of snow. I must say that this may be a little too high with the current information. Something to watch. Further N&W, towards Boston and its northwestern suburbs, it will likely be an all snow event with about 2-4" of snow. There will be a tight and sharp cutoff so areas west of Worcester and Lemonster will likely see just a few flurries. This is going on the latest runoff of the NAM model. We are still 60-70 hours away from this event. Things will likely change. This is what I am going for, for now.

Here is the five day. As you can see, after temperatures in the upper 60's to around 70 the past few days, it will be a shock. There is the Monday snow threat, and then we are back to windy and cold Tuesday with perhaps a period of light snow or flurries Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Nothing major. Seasonable December cold continues to round out the first full week of December.

Check in tomorrow to see the latest update on the snowfall accumulation.