Invest-92 Posing US Threat?

TROPICAL UPDATE- I thought I'd update the situation on Invest-92 this afternoon. Right now it is really starting to get its act together north of the Windward Islands and is quickly gathering steam as it heads in a WNW motion at this time. We could have a tropical depression by 5PM and a tropical storm soon thereafter. I have outlined the area in red where this storm is possibly going to track over. As you can see it will be heading generally in a NW motion north of Hispanola and Cuba. It will be going over the Bahamas as a strong Tropical Storm or even Category 1 Hurricane. Then it will come very close to South Florida before heading due north it looks like by the computer models. It looks to be off the SE coast sometime early next week and then head N and eventually NNE and NE heading away from the mainland United States. It looks to recurve out into the open Atlantic Ocean. This is still a developing situation and one that will have to be checked back with in the coming days if you live anywhere from the Keys to Maine at this point in time. The greatest chance of a direct impact from this not yet named storm would be from the central coast of Florida to the Carolinas. I would say at this point there is a low probability of SNE seeing anymore than just indirect effects from this tropical system. More on this developing weather situation later on. Watch out for the thunderstorms and downpours today and more rain tomorrow. Another washout?!

Summer to Return

WEDNESDAY- I am here to say that summer will be returning to SNE. Today, Wednesday is a beautiful day with temperatures getting up to around 80 under mostly sunny skies. But we have more rain and thundershowers to get through tomorrow and Friday. Some of this rain will be locally heavy tomorrow afternoon (mainly after 2PM) which could cause some street flooding in some areas. Interesting to note is that 30 day rainfall totals north of the Pike for the past thirty days have been anywhere from 8-15". More rain tomorrow and Friday before summer really returns on Saturday and beyond. No more cool and cloudy weather for SNE at least for an extended period. Tomorrow and Friday will not be real cool, just slightly below normal with highs in the upper 70's on both days. Lows have been falling into the upper 50's in suburbia the past couple of nights and I think that will continue the next couple of mornings. A crisp feel when you wake up in the morning and head out to work or get ready for the beach. Then Saturday a few showers will be exiting off of the Cape with mostly sunny skies developing NW of here with highs getting back to seasonable levels, low 80's. Sunday through Tuesday we will stay dry and continue to turn the thermostat up as we go along. We are talking low 80's Saturday, mid 80's Sunday, and near 90 on Monday. We can go ahead and call that hot. The pattern looks to change for a warmer and drier regime as we head toward this weekend and beyond, right in time for school to start.

The tropics are heating up now as well with two areas of disturbed weather formally classified as Invest 92 and Invest 93. We could have TDs by the end of today. Other than mentioning them, I won't go into too much detail because they may not even form today.

Lots of (MORE) Rain

SATURDAY- I'm here to tell you that more and more rain is on the way to SNE. We aren't talking light rain, but gully washers here. After a nice dry Saturday with temperatures in the 70's we are going to have heavy to strong storms move through our area tomorrow afternoon and evening that will consolidate into one shield of heavy rain for early Monday before more scattered heavy showers on Monday afternoon. These storms will be hit and miss and the rainfall will vary widely from town to town, but many areas are fair game for at least one inch of water. Parts of western Massachusetts by Springfield and Amherst have already seen between 4-8" of rainfall in the past five days and more looks likely. I am going for a SNE regionwide totals of 1-3" by the time its all said and done. Some spots will get more and others not so much. Right now it looks like western SNE will get the most (again) with widespread amounts of 2" or more. Flooding will become another possibility here in SNE.

That all clears out by Monday and we actually get a Tuesday that is similar to today, partly cloudy and warm with temperatures in the 70's. The only reason we won't make it into the 80's is because the ground is so wet. That is why we woke up to so many clouds here in SNE this Saturday morning. Tuesday could be similar. Then we go back for more showers and storms come Wednesday that will linger right through the end of next week unfortunately. That's all for now, check back later.

The tropics are eriely quiet.

Dry Saturday, More Storms/Flooding Early Next Week

FRIDAY- Good afternoon everyone. We are actually seeing some sunshine around this noon hour today here in SNE. Don't get used to it because this midday sunshine will only increase the instability of the atmosphere as another spindle of energy rotates through the area later this afternoon with more showers and heavy thunderstorms. Some spots yesterday in western New England saw possible funnel clouds, golf ball sized hail, and heavy flooding rains. Some spots in the West saw between 2-5" of rainfall with yesterday's storms. Here in eastern New England, SNE, we were spared with the heavy rains and strong thunder as the marine influence helped to negate the instability. Today we will not be so lucky. The sun is out and the temperatures arer rising into the mid to upper 70's as of this noon hour. Expect showers and thunderstorms to spindle through our area by about 2PM in WNE and continue eastward around 5PM. A few pop up storms could develop in any given area at any given time today, so be on the lookout.

The storms should taper tonight and lead to a clear overnight with cool temperatures dropping into the 50's in the suburbs. A few spots will drop into the mid 50's, including Bedford and Norwood. Saturday will be a generally dry day with warm temperatures. Any showers will be confined to northern New England and even there will not be a great chance. Sunday the storms will arrive again, as a strong line of storms moves through our area and then stall off our shores on Monday as the front gets held up with a low pressure spinning off it and we get a stormy near washout day on Monday with cool temperatures. If we stay in the clouds and NE breeze, high temperatures will be in the mid 60's, but for now I'm going optimisticly lower 70's. We'll see. That gets us a dry Tuesday before more showers midweek. That's the pattern we are in and it looks to stay entrenched.

We Can't Break this Pattern

THURSDAY- We have been in this pattern for nearly two months now. Lots of showers and storms each and every afternoon and it looks like this pattern will be sticking with us for at least the next few days. We could get a break early next week only to go right back into a showery and cool pattern once again. Today and tomorrow will be the coolest of the next bunch with highs today getting up to the lower 70's away from the coast, to upper 60's to around 70 degrees right on the coast. Rain showers, some heavy, will move into our area later this afternoon and continue overnight through tomorrow morning as well. Tomorrow we will have some morning showers and thunderstorms exiting off the eastern shores of SNE and by midday we will be stuck in that bright overcast and damp feeling kind of day with very cool temperatures. Tomorrow will be stuck in the mid to upper 60's along the coast to near 70 inland. Western New England could see the sun by late afternoon with highs responding into the 70's to perhaps near 80 degrees, west of the CT River Valley. All and all, we are looking at a half inch to inch of rain with this storm system, or next spindle of rain for overnight tonight and early tomorrow morning.

The weekend will feature more of the same with showers and thunderstorms a threat each afternoon, but they will become fewer and farther between as we move along through the weekend. We could actually have a total dry day around here by Sunday with more sun than we usually see this summer and temperatures getting up to near of slightly over 80 degrees regionwide. If we can't do it Sunday, we can have a better chance at it on Monday and again on Tuesday. I think both days will be mostly dry and sunny with very warm temperatures getting back to slightly above normal once again. The normal high for this date is right in the lower 80's.

After Tropical Storm Edouard's landfall north of Houston earlier this week, there is not much else to talk about in the tropics at this time. Signs are that it could get pretty active in the August 15-25 time period, but we will have to wait and see about that.

Showers and Storms Rule

WEDNESDAY- It's been a very cool day this Wednesday afternoon in early August. Sorry for the long delay in posts since late July. I've been away down the Cape for the past week and got great weather down there while areas around Boston have been in the showers and clouds for most of the past week and have been dealing with cool temperatures. Today's highs will likely stay in the mid 60's along the coast and may approach 70 degrees in metrowest. Showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast for today as well through the evening hours. A line of strong storms will come through Boston's immediate suburbs from the NW out of NH later this afternoon between 4-6PM and these storms will provide strong winds and heavy rain.

Tomorrow's forecast is more of the same with showers and thunderstorms and more cool weather with temperatures in the low 70's. Friday is another wet day before we start to dry out by Saturday and Sunday which leads us to a nice and dry Monday with warm temperatures into the 80's once again before the shower threat arrives once again on Tuesday.

Last Days of July Coming with no Surprises

SATURDAY- As we say goodbye to July 2008, we will have very typical weather for this summer to endure. Tomorrow will be one of those days here in SNE this summer where we start off with some sun and hazy skies and quickly shoot up to the mid 80's, before afternoon showers and thunderstorms develop and bring a nice dousing of rainfall to many areas. Tomorrow's threat for severe weather looks greatest in western New England, mainly west of Worcester where there could be some severe storms that dump heavy rain, possibly large hail, and strong winds. Frequent lightning is always a risk with thunderstorms, severe or not, so be aware tomorrow. The atmosphere isn't conducive for tornadoes tomorrow like early this past week, so we won't have to worry about that. We will likely see watches go up tomorrow late morning and continue to say 5-8PM.

Thereafter we dry out for Monday and Tuesday with seasonable temperatures in the mid 80's before we return to a more unsettled period for Wednesday and heading into the new month of August on Friday. Temperatures will be cooler into the 70's, but I think we avoid the heaviest of the rain here in SNE as most of the energy will be confined to central and northern New England where locally heavy rain is possible come Wednesday night into Thursday. It looks to be unsettled heading into next weekend though, so just be aware for making plans.

The tropics are very quiet tonight and will likely be quiet for a while as the winds have become unfavorable for any development near any sort of landmass. So, that's good news. Maybe the Red Sox will be able to salvage one game tomorrow at Fenway?

Sultry Saturday...

FRIDAY- It's the weekend again. It looks like we have got ourselves a pretty good weekend here in SNE. We won't be as hot as last weekend when we saw highs in the mid 90's, but tomorrow will be in the upper 80's with lots of humidity and abundant sunshine. Humidity will be on the rise tomorrow afternoon here in SNE. This will lead to a few showers Sunday afternoon and evening as a disturbance will kick off a few showers and thunderstorms. Most will be north of us for the evening hours. Temperatures will be in the seasonable level through Monday and Tuesday with highs in the low to perhaps mid 80's, right on target for this time of year and seasonable overnight lows in the low 60's outside of the city to upper 60's in the cities.

Our next threat at some rain looks to be about midweek next week with heavy rain and wind slated for Wednesday afternoon and night as an energetic packet of energy swings through SNE from the Great Lakes with an unusual potent little storm that could bring periods of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms that could renew flooding? Let's hope not. Yesterday this looked to hit the PHI-NYC corridor, but today, it looks like its slated for the NYC to Portland, ME corridor with the heaviest right in the Springfield to Worcester to Boston corridor. We'll wait and see how this pans out. It's still a ways out there.

Finally Drying Out

THURSDAY- After seeing rain everyday since Sunday, SNE is going to finally dry out after tonight's rains move off the Cape and Islands around or after midnight. We have had a rainy couple of days around here in SNE. Many spots saw between 1-2" of rainfall yesterday, plus another 1-3" of rainfall today. That makes us a two day total of 2-5", with rainfall since Sunday of over six inches. It is about time we started to dry out and tomorrow we will. We had a waterspout in Barrington, RI yesterday with minimal damage, but today we saw a more pronounced severe outbreak in Epsom, NH where between 50-100 homes were damaged or destroyed by a possible tornado. The pictures coming out of this small NH town are simply unbelievable. It looks more like a small town in KS, rather than a small New England town. Tomorrow the NWS team will survey the damage to see whether or not this was a tornado or straight line winds. From eye witness testimonies, this seems to be a tornado, that of an EF-2 or possibly EF-3. The damage is pretty awful.

More rain comes back in on Sunday, but we will not see inches upon inches of rainfall. In fact, it looks like most of the energy with this storm system will be up in western and northern New England. SNE could be spared with just scattered thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall, not widespread heavy rain and thunderstorms. The North Country could see another 1-2" of rain, locally heavier and locally less all due to where the cells set up shop.

We clear out again to start next week, before we watch a packet of energy come out of the Lower Great Lakes with a pulse of heavy rain and thunderstorms, some severe, shoot out towards to Mid Atlantic and Northeast. For now, it looks like most of this heavy rain and thunder will stay to the south of us, south of New York City, but the potential is there for more heavy rainfall, looking like it stays south of us this time. This has another 1-2" of rainfall associated with it, so if we can miss it, I don't think many will be all that devastated.

Flooding July Rains

WEDNESDAY- I'm posting very late tonight, but I thought I'd break out the usual snowfall map for some pretty hefty rainfall totals that we will be seeing over the next couple of days. If you thought that we weren't able to get a half a foot of rain in July by anything other than a tropical cyclone, you were mistaken. All you need is a stalling out front and a whole heck of a lot of moisture riding up that front with a gusty southerly breeze. Today, Wednesday, will feature most of the storms in western New England and the Mid Atlantic. They will eventually migrate eastward by tomorrow night and especially Thursday. It will gradually weaken as it moves eastward saving metro Boston from inches upon inches of rain. You want to talk a lot of rain, then look into the western part of our area. Worcester on westward, including Hartford, will see a good 2-3" of rainfall, locally more in heavy slow moving thunderstorms. Where the mountains help to squeeze out every available drop of moisture, in the Berkshires and Green Mountains, expect a good 3" or more of rainfall with locally as much as 6" of rainfall. I wouldn't be surprised if someone in the Northeast from PA to western VT picked up locally 8-10" of rainfall in the next 48 hours.

As you move to Boston, we are dealing with a soaking 1-2" of rain with locally heavier and lower amounts. The Cape gets kind of jipped with this one as they will be left with less than one inch, but if we can get a batch of thunderstorms down there, you could easily see 1-2" with Boston as well. This is where we really could use the rain and hopefully we can get it down into SEMA. We should clear out by Friday with mostly sunny skies and temperatures back into the mid 80's after having 70's for Wednesday and Thursday, but with dewpoints in the upper 60's to low 70's at times. It's going to be a muggy, rainy, nasty couple of days. Check for basement flooding in the west.