Welcoming in October to Indian Summer

I am back posting after a week off, been busy with work. Well we are right back where we left off. Dry weather and above normal temperatures. Tuesday and Wednesday was amazing with highs in the low to mid 90's and dewpoints around 70. I was questioning whether our climate had changed. But early this morning we were reminded that it can get cool. Norwood was in the upper 30's and they may be a few degrees cooler overnight tonight. Tomorrow will be another cool day, but right on target for average with a high in the upper 60's. Then the jet stream heads back up north into southern Canada sending all storms and rain up into Canada and pumps the heat back into SNE. Wednesday, the first day of the playoffs at Fenway should be nice and mild as the Red Sox take on the Angels in the ALDS. It may be a little cloudy as the true warm air starts to head back into SNE for the weekend. We are talking 80's by late week and into next weekend, once again. Its a broken record. So what can we expect during the month of October. Here is the October Preview.

Boston and its Suburbs Averages_____________________________________

Boston...........October 1st 67/51

Boston...........October 31st 57/42

Boston's highest temperature for the month of October is 90 degrees, set on October 12, 1954. The lowest temperature recorded is 25 degrees, set on multiple occaisions. Average rainfall is 3.79". Boston usually will see its first non-accumulating snow by late month.

Boston's Nearby Suburbs..........October 1st 67/44

Boston's Nearby Suburbs..........October 31st 57/35

I will use Bedford, MA for reference. Bedford's highest temperature for the month of October is 89 degrees, set on October 7, 1963. The lowest temperature ever recorded in the month was 16 degrees, set on Halloween 1966. The average rainfall is 4.37" with nearby suburbs seeing their first light accumulating snow towards the end of the month about once every 3-4 years. ______________________________________________________________

How will it be this October? Early indications are that it will be an above average month, temperature wise, with early departures likely making it a positive month. We have an equal chance of seeing normal rainfall, but I would bet it will stay mostly dry. East of the Rockies, temperatures will be very much above normal, generally a good +1 to +3 departure. In the upper Midwest, +4 dept. cannot be ruled out. The West Coast will be much Below normal with above normal precipitation. Temperatures out there will be a good -1 to -3 degrees below normal. Early season snow will fall in the mountains, building up their snowpack steadily towards the end of the month, likely. No Halloween skiing anywhere in the East. Its going to stay warm here this month.

Record Heat Tomorrow

Record heat is in the forecast for tomorrow. The record high for Boston tomorrow is 89 degrees. I believe that Boston will either tie it or break it by 1-2 degrees. I am going for a general SNE high of 91 degrees tomorrow. It will be cooler on the Cape and Islands with temperatures in the 70's, with the strong SW wind of 20-30 mph. Don't expect things to cool down on Wednesday. If anything it will be hotter by a few degrees, but Boston will not reach a record high because the record for the 26th is 95 degrees. I think Boston will come in around 92 or 93 degrees for the high, still very high for the date. Is this unprecedented heat? No. Our latest 90 degree temperature was on October 12th, so we can still have 90 degree temperature, climatalogically, for the next 2-3 weeks. I think this will be our last blast from summer this season though.

Rain moves in Thursday afternoon and night and becomes steady, moving in from the Mid Atlantic and New York City. It should be a soaking rain, likely a 0.5" to 0.75" event, wrapping up early Friday morning, setting for a cooler Friday and especially Saturday, but the high of 68 on Saturday will be right on par with the average high for the date. We warm right back up for Sunday, back in the mid 70's. Its looking like the jet stream will pretty much stay in the pattern of giving SNE warm air. All the cool air will stay in the intermountain West as parts of Montana have seen plenty of snow the past few days.

More on the record heat tomorrow!

Are You Kidding Me!?

My headline portrays my feelings towards this forecast. Its ridiculous. We are fast approaching October and we are dealing with weather like this. Don't get me wrong, I am not complaining, but, come on, its not supposed to be sunny and in the 90's during the last week of September here in southern New England. Tomorrow will be the last day of dry heat and then we will get very humid to oppressive humidity by Tuesday and Wednesday with highs getting up into the lower to mid 90's regionwide. We could be easily breaking records around here on Tuesday, as the record high for that date in Boston is a meager 89 degrees, I believe. Boston will likely break that by 1-3 degrees, shattering the old record. I am not sure what the record is for Wednesday, but with highs in the mid 90's, we'd be close to a record high in mid July, let alone late September. Showers move into the picture for an unsettled second half of the week, but they do not look as potent as they did a few days ago, and do not look to cool us dramatically, into the low 60's as I thought before. Once they clear, we warm up again heading into next weekend with highs in the mid 70's.

One thing to note is the Tuesday morning and Wednesday morning low temperatures. Mid 60's for a region average on Tuesday and then 70 on Wednesday morning. A few days last week, Boston didn't even get out of the low 60's for a high! Boston overnight Tuesday and early Wednesday morning will probably "bottom out" around 72 degrees! It will surely feel like summer has returned to the city. Maybe then, the Red Sox will start playing ball like they did during the dog days. Thats not too much to ask, IMO.

More tomorrow.

Summer Makes a Return in a Big Way

Happy 4th of July everybody, ope, my bad, its late afternoon on September 22nd and its around 80 at 5PM. I thought it was July for a second. The summer beat continues at least for a little while. I can't tell if this will be the last hurrah for summer, but each time we have one of these hurrah's I think that it will be the last one, but looking down about seven days, we always see the heat building again. Tomorrow, the first day of fall will feel anything but fall. Highs overall will be around 80 inland and mid 70's along the shore. Another beach day in my opinion. We step it up a bit for Monday with highs around 80-85. Then look at the forecast for Tuesday. Can you believe your eyes, lower 90's. It won't last long, just a one day stand. Cooler air comes in with a stalling cold front on Wednesday before we return to seasonable weather for later in the week. Upper 60's look cool, but that will actually be right at average for Friday of next week!

Enjoy the last day of summer.

Summery Stretch Continues

Our summery weather will continue for at least a little while longer. Considering that it is nearly October, stringing together 5-7 consecutive days of mostly sunny days with highs around 80 is simply astounding. Tomorrow brings much of the same. Highs tomorrow will be ever so slightly cooler, mainly in the upper 70's. Then as I have been saying over and over, Saturday really warms, getting into the middle 80's. It looked like Sunday would cool, but now it looks like the first day of autumn will still feel like July. Highs for SNE will average around 82 degrees. That is the normal high for Boston for July 20th! Not the first day of fall. Monday will be 85 degrees for a southern New England average, a temperature that is above the the warmest day of the year's average temperature, 83 degrees in late July-early August. Tuesday is still warm and then we deal with a staggering front that will start to really cool us into Wednesday with increasing clouds and the threat of showers later in the day. We may be talking 80's to begin the week, and then 60's to round it off. Its the time of extremes.

Forecast More Like July than Late September

This forecast looks more like that out of a week out of July. Temperatures will stay well above normal by 10-15 degrees through the period with the cooler days, Friday and Sunday, still much above normal. Tomorrow is day one of the return of the summer weather. Highs should be getting into the lower 80's, under abundant sunshine. A dry front will move through parts of SNE on Thursday night and introduce a cooler airmass, ever so slightly, into SNE, dropping temperatures from the low and middle 80's to around 80 inland, 70's at the shore. The warm air surges right back with a warm front going through the area and temperatures will respond nicely, middle 80's widespread throughout the southern part of the six state region. Another cold front, dry, moves through on Sunday, the first official day of autumn, "cooling" us down into the mid 70's.

The heat surges right back early next week and we will be into the 80's on Monday and Tuesday with an extended period of warmth, to downright hot weather. The jet stream is surging into southern Canada and as long as the jet stream stays in a trough in the West and huge ridge here in the East, storms will continue to track through the Northern Plains, up through the Great Lakes and into southern Quebec, dragging mostly dry, weak cold fronts down to our area. Temperatures looks to stay well above average through next week. October is showing signs that it could be an very warm month as well. We will see how this all affects the winter forecasts.

Can Somebody Say Drought?

There is no weather coming our way for the foreseeable future. Not even the chance of rain the next 6-8 days. The next chance of seeing any type of rain looks to come by Wednesday of next week. The only story that will be making headlines will be the temperatures. From one extreme to another. Today, the cold spot in SNE was Norwood, of course, as they got to a frosty low of 30 degrees this morning. Not far behind was the normally second cold spot, Bedford, coming in with a low of 33 degrees. Highs today stayed generally in the 60's, with the exception of Taunton, coming in with an afternoon high of 70 degrees, after a morning low of 36 degrees. Tomorrow temperatures as a whole will be a few degrees warmer in the morning and the afternoon. Norwood and Bedford will likely drop to between 34-37 degrees, while the rest hover around 40. Boston will likely be around 50, after a morning low of 48 this morning. The heat moves in on Thursday on a SW wind. Highs will likely be in the low to mid 80's, with low humidity. A cold front will move through the area from west to east Thursday night and let in a cooler, but still nice airmass for Friday, with temperatures slightly above normal, mainly in the mid 70's. The heat is right back on for Saturday as highs will be soaring well into the mid to perhaps upper 80's in a few spots. Overnight lows will likely stay around 60 in the suburbs to mid and upper 60's in urban areas. That will really feel like summer all over again on the last official day of summer.

We welcome in fall at 5:51AM on Sunday morning with a cooler airmass, with morning lows in the 40's in the suburbs and 50's, Boston. The cooler airmass stays until Monday and then I think we are off to the races again as temperatures soar back into the 80's. Enjoy this perfect stretch of weather. It can't last forever.

Frost Widespread Tonight

Sleeping with the windows open last night was quite the mistake. Lows got very cold last night in southern New England and many parts of western and northern New England dropped down to frosty levels early this morning, which will really accelerate the fall foliage season, really early this season. We have two more very cold to frosty mornings ahead before we really start to heat up once again. First today, temperatures will top out between 60-65 degrees with abundant sunshine, maybe a few afternoon clouds. Once late afternoon comes, temperatures will really start to tumble, down into the mid 50's for the Red Sox in Boston tonight, and low 50's for the fans at Gillette. Temperatures by the end of the Sox game will likely be around 50, but the end of the Pats game will really feel like fall, in the mid and upper 40's. Temperatures will really fall at Gillette because Foxboro is a notorious place to cool quickly.

One more cool day like that on Tuesday and then we are off to the races for warmth latern next week. Wednesday will be a bit milder with temperatures around 70, after morning lows in the low 40's. We warm up more significantly on Thursday with high temperatures in the low to mid 80's. The warm temperatures will continue through the weekend with highs each day in the 75-85 degree range, coolest at the shore, warmest inland.

Here is a map for tonight's frost and freeze potential. As you can see, places around the Boston-Providence-Worcester area does not really have to worry about tonight for frost and freezes. However, a notorious place for frost around here will be the airport at Norwood and any cranberry bogs and Carver, MA is a notorious cold spot.

Much further west is where you will run into widespread frost and freezes. Western CT, MA and much of Vermont, and southern New Hampshire will experience temperatures in the low to mid 30's. South-central Vermont will even experience Freezing conditions with temperatures likely in the 28-32 degree range for several hours at a time. That is where there is a *Freeze Warning at the current time. The areas in the darker blue are under a *Frost Advisory. Tuesday morning we will do this all over again and perhaps closer to home, we'll see.

Enjoy the nice stretch we are getting.

Frosty Suburbs Monday Morning

I hope your garden got a good drink of water this morning because that will be the last of the rain we will see for quite a long time. Second of all, the growing season, for a few, will come to an end come Monday morning. I will outline the areas that could experience frosty temperatures, around 32 degrees, tomorrow afternoon with a map perhaps. Tonight the frost will be confined to western Massachusetts and southwestern New Hampshire. Northern New England is fair game as well, but many areas up there have already been below 32 this season. Tomorrow will be a chilly day with highs in the low 60's. Then Monday morning is when parts of southern New England may go below or around 32 degrees for a time that could put an end to our growing season. If your garden survives the early week frost, it will love the forecast later because temperatures will get back into the 70's by midweek and maybe approaching 80 by Friday.

Monday is going to be a chilly one to start off.

Pleasant Weather Here; Twin Tropical Trouble

Our weather is fine here today. It is a little bit windy with winds gusting over 30 mph, making for a bad hair day. Other than that, with temperatures in the 70's and partly cloudy skies, you can't ask for much more. Tomorrow will be a cooler day, with temperatures only making it to about 70, after early morning lows in the 40's. As advertised, Friday will be a nice and warm day with highs getting into the upper 70's. It will feel nice. The next shot of light rain showers, widely scattered, will come during the day on Saturday. I am not certain of the timing, but what these showers will do is usher in some very chilly air from Canada. Highs on Sunday will struggle to get to 60 in most places. Early morning lows early next week will be quite low as well. Suburbia will likely bottom out in the mid and upper 30's, both Monday and Tuesday mornings. So, this means you may want to wear layers and just shed them during the day as afternoon temperatures warm.

The tropics are making headlines as well today. First I will talk about the Tropical Depression in the Gulf of Mexico, within miles of the southeast coast of Texas. Winds with this system are 35 mph, so it is close to TS status. It may make it to about 40 mph, but that would be about it. It only has about 30-50 miles of water left before it makes landfall in Texas. The other concern is out in the middle of the Atlantic off the African coast. It is a more impressive looking system on the satellites, and has lots of time to mature into something major, if it doesn't get pulled north into the "Hurricane Graveyard," which this storm has all the potential to do. By this weekend, it should be gaining strength, likely becoming a hurricane, heading for the eastern Atlantic. Its still days away from even affecting any type of landmass, so we won't worry about this one until Saturday.

Enjoy your Wednesday.