Chilly Week Ahead, Not Cold Enough Though (White)

Our Sunday turned out to be a great day with mostly sunny skies and highs getting up to near 60 degrees in much of SNE. However, we will start to cool down now and this week is just a subtle preview of what we could be dealing with in about two weeks. Tomorrow we will return to seasonable weather with highs around 50 degrees, which will feel chilly after having the last few days in the 60's, since last Wednesday or Thursday I believe. We will continue to bottom out going into Tuesday and Wednesday with highs only in the mid and upper 40's. The one consolation with this will be the sunshine, but the sunshine this time of year is really becoming weaker and weaker and by 2pm, it feels like we are already starting to get dark around here, even though I know the sun doesn't set until about 4:20pm. We bottom out on Thursday ahead of the next storm system that will cut to our west and bring in some milder air for next weekend after Friday's rain showers. Thursday will be tough to get temperatures out of the upper 30's in Worcester with low lining areas staying in the lower 40's or right around 40 degrees. Our next storm system moves in Friday with RAIN showers as we warm up with SW flow. We will warm back into the 50's for next Saturday, but this warmup will be even briefer than the one we just went through. We are only about 10-14 days away from seeing some of the coldest air since last winter. Computer models this afternoon brought highs in the upper 20's to lower 30's for around Thanksgiving week, starting on Monday and continuing the cold regime, but it does look dry.

Rainy Weather

Alright, I have switched the background to our 5 day forecast from fall to winter. I think it is about time and maybe this new background can jump start our winter here in SNE. Parts of New York state, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania have already seen heavy accumulating snows so far. Some parts of NY, NJ, and PA saw over a foot to 18"+ of snowfall last Tuesday. Worcester got their first flakes of the season last week as well. Then we saw temperatures soar into the mid to upper 60's early this week only to have a muggy time of it today and going into this weekend with cloudy skies and drizzly weather. Tomorrow will feature another day of scattered showers and mild temperatures, as well as Sunday before we start to cool down in a big way going into Monday when highs will be in the upper 40's in the hills to around 50 near the coast. We continue to cool down going into Tuesday and Wednesday with highs staying in the mid to upper 40's on Tuesday and likely holding in the mid 40's on Wednesday with a slight chance of a few wet snow showers later Wednesday night as a warm front moves through the area. It would be very light and right now it is just the slightest chance of actually seeing this verify. That leads us going into next weekend as a storm system will cut to our west and draw in some unseasonably warm air and rainy conditions once again before we really start to cool (cold) down going into mid month and latest indications are that we could be going into the Deep Freeze for Thanksgiving week. That's way out there so more on that later on this month. Luckily there is only about 19 days left until Thanksgiving. Where does time go?

Mild Week Ahead, Prospects of Prolonged Cold (& Snow) Long Range

I hope everyone had a good Halloween this past Friday night. We got some great weather for the trick or treaters and for the party goers as well. Now we are into the month of November and the frequency of cold shots and snow chances will start to increase with each passing day. We start the month with average highs in the mid to upper 50’s, but by month’s end, average highs will be falling into the lower to middle 40’s, heading into December. We are starting off the month chilly with highs only getting into the mid 40’s today here in SNE. Worcester could have a tough time coming over the 38-42 degree range this afternoon. But, this is a one day cold snap and we are returning to normal or slightly above normal tomorrow afternoon with highs getting to between 55-60 degrees, warmest in the Route 24 corridor. We continue the warm up this week as we head into midweek with Tuesday and Wednesday getting real warm around these parts ahead of the next storm system. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will be getting into the lower 60’s easily and with enough sunshine, either of the two days, more likely Wednesday could get close to 70 degrees in some parts away from the coast, believe it or not. But then the rain and unsettled weather comes for later in the week with Thursday and Friday both being showery days with highs dropping back into the 50’s, but it will still be a warm airmass, so no worries of frozen precipitation even to the Canadian border with this one. It will be an all rain situation.

Outlooks way out into mid November suggest a return to a prolonged period of cold weather and storm chances, but that is so far out, let’s get through the first two weeks of November before we start thinking about the last two weeks. As the winter returns, I will be posting more and more often, so get ready, Winter 2008-2009 is nearly upon us.

Snow in the Forecast?!

Fall has really settled into New England this past couple of days. Today was a very blustery day with temperatures in the upper 40’s in the Worcester Hills to lower 50’s in the lower elevations. A stiff NE breeze gave a bite to the air in southeastern Massachusetts today with the ocean storm off our coastline today. We woke up to temperatures in the 30’s in suburbia with mid 20’s out past Worcester into SW NH. Tonight will be another chilly night with many areas in suburbia of Boston getting down into the upper 20’s to around 30 degrees. However, we will rebound nicely tomorrow with highs getting back to the mid 50’s and the wind will not be as strong as it was today. Ahead of the next storm system, the flow will turn SW which will allow us to warm up to around 60 degrees, believe it or not, on Tuesday afternoon before rain showers move in from the NW later in the day.
As the rain pushes through our area, an area of low pressure will start to develop off the Cape and strengthen rapidly, all the while, the temperatures will be crashing in Southern New England. At this time, areas in Central and Northern New England will likely already be seeing light to moderate precipitation with temperatures dropping through the 30’s, so they will see the rain mix with and change to an all snow event. Now the question becomes, will there still be precipitation falling on Wednesday morning here in the Boston metro area. If so, I strongly believe that the precipitation type will not be falling in the form of drops, but in the form of flakes. Areas in elevated locations, like the Worcester Hills and Manadnocks of SW NH will see a higher likelihood of snowfall, but even areas closer to Boston, like Boston’s immediate suburbs, could see some wet snow flakes if this materializes like it should. Regardless, Wednesday is going to be a COLD BLUSTERY day with highs staying in the lower to mid 40’s in SNE and NNE won’t get out of the 30’s! Some areas of the higher elevations of NH and ME may see an accumulation out of this. A couple to a few inches of snowfall is not out of the question on the highest peaks.

The temperatures moderate later on in the forecast, so it’s not all doom and gloom.

Indian Summer to Fall Chill

Enjoy the last few days of nice summery weather here in SNE. Tomorrow will be another day with highs in the upper 60's to around 70 degrees with abundant sunshine and we will only be warmer on Wednesday with highs getting well into the 70's. Overnight lows won't be as chilly Wednesday and Thursday mornings as most places will stay above 50 degrees. However, by the end of the week and into next weekend especially, we will struggle to match those nighttime lows for afternoon highs. Our transition day will be on Thursday with showers and moderate temperatures, highs in the 60's before we really start to cool down on Friday with highs staying in the 50's and then we really take a step down on Saturday with highs likely staying in the upper 40's here in SNE with overnight lows getting down into the 20's and 30's even here in SNE. Of course the valleys and sheltered regions will fall below freezing as many already have, but places that haven't seen that killing frost will get it this weekend. We will slowly start to moderate heading into next week, but the damage will have already been done for many of your plants outside as leaves will start to fall from the trees and we will introduce leaf raking season. Always fun.

The Red Sox/Rays game tomorrow looks very nice with temperatures in the mid 60's for the 7PM first pitch, and temperatures will gradually head towards 60 degrees by game's end. Hopefully we can have a better outcome tomorrow than what we had today. The Sox are down 2-1, heading into Game 4. Wakefield heads to the mound tomorrow to stop the bleeding.

Foliage Starting to Peak

The fall foliage is starting to peak across much of Central and now Southern New England. It has come on strong with the maples and birches here in eastern Massachusetts and is really starting to look amazing with peak conditions coming on strong and vibrant. SE Massachusetts is still only nearing peak, while everyone else will be passing peak in the next week or two with massive leaf drop likely. This is an amazing weekend for leaf peeping for those who went to the North Country to see amazing vibrant colors on the base of the mountains and snow capped summits. Its an amazing sight. Route 16 in NH is great this time of year. The peak colors will continue to head SE towards the coast and get the Cape within the next 7-10 days. The weather has been fantastic with highs in the North getting up into the 60's with highs in the South getting into the 70's the past couple of days. Tomorrow through Tuesday and Wednesday look to continue the cool nights and warm days theme with highs tomorrow and Monday near 70, while Tuesday will be into the mid 70's, before we start to cool off later in the week to near 60 by Thursday and then by the weekend, highs will be in the 50's it looks like in the Boston metro area with highs in the north likely staying in the 40's with overnight lows into the 20's North and 30's South. If you haven't gotten a frost yet, next weekend may be the time for you. It looks like many areas outside of the city of Boston will be experiencing their first frosts and possibly hard freezes by next weekend, say around Sunday morning perhaps. Until then, enjoy the warm October weather because long range outlooks chill us down big time by the end of next week and that cool to cold weather regime looks to continue through the rest of the month it looks like. So get out there and enjoy the warm sunshine while we still have it.

The Sun Returns...

The sun has finally returned to SNE after waiting days and day for its return. Last night an area of showers, locally heavy, moved through the South Shore of Massachusetts and left up to a quarter inch of rainfall in its wake and left the morning pavement wet across cities from Brockton to Plymouth, MA. That has moved offshore now and we will now be seeing the clouds start to break with the ground drying out after about a week of clouds and rain. Today will actually feature nice temperatures as well with highs getting right up to about 70 degrees. Normal for this time of year is about 67 degrees, so we will actually be a few degrees above normal for the date. Tomorrow looks like another dry and fairly mild day with highs getting into the upper 60’s to around 70 degrees. Then a front will move through our area from Canada and we will go into the coolest air of the season on Saturday and we really chill down by Monday with highs likely in the around 50 degrees on the hilltops and highest elevations of SNE, likely only 40’s for highs in NNE, and likely around 55 degrees in the city of Boston. Overnight lows with the longer nights will have a chance to really bottom out as we cool down the afternoon highs, so we will likely see a frosty Sunday morning here in many areas outside of the cities here in SNE, with more people getting into frosts and growing season ending freezes by Monday and Tuesday mornings. Monday will feel like a day more suitable for early to mid November here in SNE and could come as a shock to the system.

If you are looking for snow, there may be some of the white stuff in the Catskills of northern upstate New York tomorrow night which could push over into the Green Mountains of Vermont with the usual places like Mount Mansfield and Jay Peak likely getting a fresh covering of snow on their summits, yielding a Saturday with snowcapped mountains and nice foliage at the base. That could be quite the sight for leaf peepers. SNE will have to wait another 2 weeks before we get peak foliage into our area. The snow? I think we will have to wait a little while longer yet, but the first flakes are likely only a few short weeks away, climatologically.

October to Start Chilly

October is a month of transition here in SNE. We can start off the month with nearly summery conditions with temperatures into the 80’s, with the all-time record high at Boston’s Logan Airport at 90 degrees. It can also see winter like cold with the record low in the 10’s in suburbia to 20’s in the city of Boston. This is also the month where many see their first flakes as well. Actually, we usually see accumulating snowfall about one every three to four winters outside of the city, with the last accumulating October snowfall on October 29, 2005. That day featured a forecast for morning snow showers to rain that quickly grew intense and in the end, some towns in metro Boston picked up a thick coating to a couple of inches of water logged snowfall. October snowfalls don’t mean that you will have a blockbuster year, however. In October of 2001, Boston recorded its earliest flakes on record, October 8th, and Boston only saw about 17” of snow for the entire winter that year, with the majority of it falling overnight on December 8th, when a general 5-8” snowstorm blanketed SNE with heavy wet snow.

That said, our forecast is cooling down as we head into the weekend. Tomorrow will be a near normal day, maybe even slightly above normal with temperatures in the upper 60’s to around 70 degrees tomorrow. The sun will also make an appearance tomorrow after today’s storms around Boston. After six straight cloudy days, we could use some sun. Temperatures continue to decline going into Friday and Saturday with only highs in the low 60’s Friday, and around 60 on Saturday. We continue to drop in the temperature department on Sunday with a frosty morning out in suburbia, with lows getting down to the low and mid 30’s in places like Norwood, MA and Bedford, MA. That will lead to a day of temperatures maxing out in the upper 50’s. We continue the downward trend on Monday with highs likely staying in the lower 50’s in Worcester County and SW NH, with mid 50’s closer to the coast. Morning lows will be very cold as well with temperatures likely going below freezing for some time in suburbia and likely around 40-44 degrees in the city of Boston. Monday will be our coolest day of the next bunch with moderating temperatures later next week, getting back into the mid 60’s by midweek. Early call on Columbus Day weekend and its way too early to be speculating on this, but right now it looks like a mainly dry weekend with seasonably cool temperatures. If you had to peg me with numbers, I would say low 60’s in SNE with cooler temperatures in the mountains. Likely highs in the 50’s and lows in the 20’s and 30’s up North, with peaking color in Central and ‘northern’ SNE. The North Country will likely be past peak at this time with massive leaf drop at this time at the highest elevations. Still, its way too early to be looking out this far, so we will have to wait and see as we head into next week.

That is all for now, I will try to post more regularly as we head into the most fun part of the year, wintertime. Enjoy October, it's one of the best months of the year.

Hurricane Kyle Just Misses...

Hurricane Kyle will be missing SNE by just miles tomorrow morning as it passes closest to Nantucket as a minimal Category 1 storm with max winds of around 80 mph, with gusts to 100 mph as it heads into the Gulf of Maine and makes landfall somewhere in Downeast Maine or Nova Scotia as a minimal hurricane or strong tropical storm. Kyle will give some tropical storm force gusts to the Cape and Islands and likely some rain from its outer bands but that will be about it. The rain from the front will finally come to an end for the rest of eastern SNE later tonight after 48 hours of rainfall and rain amounting up to 5-6" in some spots with many spots receiving between 2-5" of rainfall since yesterday morning. If Kyle were to hit us, we'd be talking about an easy 6"+, but that will not be the case, so let's not even worry about it. Kyle leaves into the Canadian Maritimes later tomorrow night and that will allow for a brief warmup for Monday with temperatures into the low to mid 70's under partly cloudy skies.

Then we will start to cool down for the midweek when we will be watching for a Wednesday rainstorm again with cool temperatures and rainy conditions. This doesn't look like flooding rains that we have gone through this weekend, but enough to slow things down and just make it wet. A front will clear the area on Thursday morning and then the floodgates will open this weekend for some real cool fall air to arrive to SNE as we will have highs around 60 degrees on Thursday, but then we could be stuck in the mid 50's for a majority of next weekend with lows getting to frosty levels and the end of the growing season for suburbia; low 30's, even a few upper 20's in the coldest locals?

We'll have to wait and see on that. Until then, just one more so so day before some nice weather right in time for the start of the work week.

September Warmth to Chill

SUNDAY- Good morning to all of you readers. I know it has been quite a long time since I have posted, but I am back now and will be posting more sporadically, but will still post for the bigger weather events. I hope we all survived Hannah last night. The wind was pretty meager, but the rainfall was impressive with 3-6" of rain falling in a 6 hour timeframe. Now we look to the beginning of the week with more warm temperatures, into the 80's, before we start to cool off going into the midweek with temperatures falling back into the 60's with very chilly overnight lows. Tomorrow we are looking at highs in the low to mid 80's with partly cloudy skies before Tuesday we see clouds increase during the course of the afternoon and possibly see some scattered showers later in the afternoon and evening. Highs will still be quite warm on Tuesday, into the low 80's. Then those showers will bring in some nice cool air with highs in the upper 60's for both Wednesday and Thursday. Some places that radiate the best at night will see low temperatures Thursday morning around 40 degrees believe it or not, even after we had dewpoints in the mid and upper 70's with Hannah's moisture around yesterday afternoon.

Hurricane Ike, changing the topic, is moving through the northern part of Hispanola right now and heading for the eastern part of Cuba in the next 24 hours as a strong Category 4 Hurricane with max winds of 135 mph, gusting over 160. Cuba will rip this strong hurricane apart a bit, but it will enter the Gulf as a Cat 1 and be able to strengthen to possibly a Cat 3 or higher as it heads anywhere from western FL to Houston, TX. The latter part of this week could get interesting once again. Latest models show this storm getting close to New Orleans yet again as a strong Cat 3, but we are still in la-la land. Time will tell.