Hot, Hot, Hot!

Going outside today is a real shock to the system. It feels like we are back in the midst of the swealtering days of July. Temperatures across eastern southern New England have come up into the lower 90's, with dewpoints in the muggy range, creating a heat index in the mid 90's. Don't expect much relief from the heat tomorrow. Overnight lows will struggle to get below 70 in many spots with very humid conditions, which I can imagine will be very tough for high school football players tonight in many kickoff games. Tomorrow starts off with a good launching pad with temperatures already in the low to mid 70's by 7-8AM. This will shoot us up into afternoon temperatures in the low to middle 90's, pegging a general Boston metro high of around 93 degrees. The record for tomorrow in Boston is 95 degrees set in 1872, but I don't think that Boston will break or even tie that record of over 130 years.

Cooler air, but still humid is on tap for Sunday and early Monday with the possibility of a few showers, but many of them will stay up north where the stationary wavering front will likely stay most of the time. Temperatures will be knocked down into the 70's. Right now, that area of disturbed weather east of the Carolinas is finally reaching a period that it will be able to develop, and quite quickly. It won't be explosive development, but it will be impressive. It should be a Tropical Storm or Depression by the end of the day. Many models take it to the North Carolina coast and then move it up to about the Del Marva, before jutting it out well south of Nantucket and the Cape. Most of the rain will miss SNE to the SE as well, so no soaking rains of 2"+ for our lawns, which it so desperately needs. The next shot of rain showers comes Wednesday, but it will not be a whole lot of water. Just a chance of some showers. Very isolated in nature as well.

Thereafter, we dry and cool to around 70 degrees to round off the work week, next week. Enjoy your weekend and if you can, get to your favorite beach or pool to enjoy tomorrow's summer redux. Who knows, it could be the last real summery day. Its getting to be that time of change again.

Summer Returns

Summer is returning to SNE Friday in a big way. While kids are cooped up in classes and you can call in, I would advise you to do so. The beaches will be practically empty, but it will be one of the best beach days all summer long. Temperatures will likely get up to 90 at the beaches tomorrow with water temperatures still warm in the mid 60's, what more could you ask for. If you wait until Saturday to get to the beach, you will likely see big crowds and they will likely try to make a few bucks by putting someone out to collect the $20-30 at the parking lots. After Saturday's heat, I do not see any 90's in the next week to two weeks, so this could be it, but I wouldn't bet my house on it. We will likely see 80's to perhaps 90 again before this month is over.

The deal for Sunday is that we will get a couple showers and thunderstorms with a cold front, but I do not see a soaking rain from the tropical system down south that has struggled so mightily to develop the past several days. The models keep showing this thing weaker and weaker with each passing run, so I am losing confidence that this thing will even develop past a minimal tropical storm (40-50 mph) if that. Thereafter, we will keep the risk of some showers, but the risk will be very slight at best. Temperatures will be on the cooldown though with highs getting back into the 70's after Monday's abnormally cool afternoon with highs stuck in the upper 60's with the wind coming off the water here in eastern New England. We'll see if summer doesn't have just one or two more gasps before this month is out. October is known for good 80 degree days as well, so don't bum out just yet if you think this weekend is the last of the summery weather we will see until next June.

Tropical Threat Whaning...

The tropic threat is still alive out there as the storm has not even developed, but so many are already discounting this storm as an out to sea special. I still think it is too early to discount a storm before it actually has developed or gotten her name, Gabrielle. We'll see.

In the meantime, Thursday will be a great day across SNE. Thursday will be partly cloudy with temperatures around 80. Early morning temperatures at the bus stop will cause many to want to bring a sweatshirt with them. Lows will likely fall into the low-mid 40's in the usual cold spots of SNE, to around 56 in the city. The heat is back for Friday and Saturday and even the first part of Sunday, with increasing humidity along the way. Friday will likely get up into the mid-upper 80's, with relatively low humidity, dewpoints in the 50's. Saturday will get a tad bit more sticky with dewpoints around 60 and highs getting all the way into the lower 90's away from the shores.

Right now I have highs advertised in the mid 80's for Sunday, but if that front gets here quicker, rain showers will likely cool us down into the 70's for highs during the day on Sunday, with very high humidity. Monday would be the day that we would get hit with whatever moisture is left from the tropical system. Highs will be much cooler in the northerly winds brought down from the tropical system. This will usher in some real cool fall air after this tropical system departs, bringing in temperatures into the 60's for Tuesday. Lows will be back into the 40's and perhaps even some 30's after this front passes.

So thats it, one more cold night. Probably doesn't get down to 39 degrees in Norwood tonight, as I think this is the second or third time they have dipped into the upper 30's. Then the heat and cool weather next week.

Watching the Tropics Closely

The tropics are starting to really heat up and Hurricane Felix made landfall with the northern coast of Nicaragua as a Category 5 storm, with maximum sustained winds of 160 mph, gusting well over 200 mph. The storm has since weakened as it has moved over land, but the mountainous terrain will make sure the storm slows down and dumps as much rainfall as possible on the small central American villages. Mudslides will be a major threat with this as up to 2 feet of rainfall could fall in the next couple of days. Closer to home, there is an area of disturbed weather north of the Bahamas and east of the southern Florida coast that has been sitting and spinning for a couple of days. More about this later in the post.

For the short term, expect a very chilly night tonight, especially in northern New England, as much of the northern part of the six state region is under a Frost Advisory for scattered frost will lows dipping into the lower to middle 30's tonight in many areas up North. Closer here, lows will likely dip into the low 40's in the normally coldest suburbs of Boston with the city likely staying in the mid 50's. This will lead to a perfect fallish day Wednesday as many school districts open up for the first day of classes. Highs should get into the lower to middle 70's. This will lead to another cold night as many spots could very well fall into the 40's, even Boston will fall to around 52-54 degrees. I wouldn't be surprised if Norwood fell to 38 degrees. Thursday will be sunny with highs in the upper 70's.

Then it is back to the steam heat for Friday through Sunday with temperatures getting back into the mid and upper 80's each day with rising humidity. This will open up the doors for us for a possible tropical cyclone threat. I have below a projection of Invest 99 currently and how the computer models are tracking it at the current time.

As you can see, the computer models are all over the place with the track of this storm, but many are strengthening it into a tropical cyclone of some magnitude during the timeframe. One model, the GFDL is developing the storm rapidly as a Tropical Storm and eventually a Hurricane before slowly meandering its way up the eastern seaboard, where ocean water temperatures are up to 80 degrees just south of the Jersey Shore.

The GFDL's track is outlined in the blue line and as you can see, it is showing a coastal hugger with strong winds, a Cat 1-3 Hurricane, and heavy rainfall. Waves and high surf will be another major player in this situation as well, no matter how strong this storm develops. The GFS model is usually very good at depicting tropical cyclone tracks and you can see it is delivering this storm very close to the New England coast in the pink track. This would take the brunt of the storm offshore, but it would still be a major concern for much of southern New England.

As you can see, this is a fluid situation and one that will need to be watched very closely during the next couple of days. There is not even a tropical depression out there yet, just something to keep an eye on. I will have more updates on Invest 99 later should anything develop later today or be upgraded, I will be the first to post it.

The End is Near to this Perfect Stretch

Our great stretch of weather is continuing this week as Labor Day weekend comes to a close with temperatures getting up to around 90 in many locations this afternoon, including the beaches, where I am sure are very packed today. If you don't have work or school tomorrow, I would advise you to get to the beach or pool if you can. This week, I strongly advise all of you to get at least one more trip to the beach and pool, because the end of this great stretch of weather is starting to come into sight. After this work week and weekend, I see the end. Next week looks to be much cooler and rainier than what we had the entire month of August.

Until then we have great weather for this week. Highs tomorrow will get into the upper 70's to around 80 under mostly sunny skies. The drier air will allow the lows overnight to get rather cold on Wednesday and Thursday mornings. Lows on Wednesday morning will likely be 40-45 in Boston's suburbs, with Boston staying in the 54-59 degree range. Thursday morning will be extremely cold with lows in Boston's suburbs falling back all the way to 38-45 degrees. Boston will be warmer with lows in the 52-56 degree range. Don't worry this cold will be replaced with weekend heat.

Weekend heat! Highs on Friday will start to heat up back into the upper 80's with Saturday getting all the way into the lower 90's! Overnight lows won't dip into the 40's, but instead will be in the 60's to around 70, even in Boston's coolest suburbs! It will feel like summer at its peak. Sunday will be the last day of the warmth and sun as Monday of next week looks to usher in some rain showers, progressively getting heavier, and much cooler air with a wind off the water. Monday's highs will likely only be around 70 and Tuesday could be the wettest and coolest day since this past spring with highs possibly right around 60 at the shore and low 60's inland with a heavy rain. Its still a long way out, but after that we will still get some warmth as the entire front will head north of us later next week and we should return to humid and warm conditions, at least for a little while, but it won't be with 100 percent sunshine that we have experienced.

Enjoy this great weather.

UPDATE: Fierce Felix; Category 5

Hurricane Felix has just reached Category 5 status with maximum winds of 165 mph, with higher gusts of around 200 mph! This storm has stronger winds at any point during destructive Category 5 Dean's lifespan. Dean "only" managed winds of 155 mph at its peak.

Everything is still the same with Felix, just that now it looks to hit the southern Yucatan as a strong Cat 4 or is being forecasted to hit by the NHC as a Category 5 storm, again. It'll be interesting to see if Felix reaches its peak, around 175 mph, and then its winds will have to come down. Its like throwing a ball against the ceiling. No matter how high you throw it, it will hit a cap, and then start to head down. That could be the saving grace for Mexico/Belize.

More updates tomorrow.

UPDATE:

Our Weather

Are you ready for a hot Labor Day. If you were hoping for one last great beach day, your prayers were answered. This Labor Day will be one of the best we have seen in some years. The heat will be there, but it will not feel all that bad. September heat is different than heat in July or early August. Expect perfect weather for the beach, or in your backyard for a BBQ. Temperatures will get into the upper 80's during the afternoon hours, but then quickly fall through the 70's through the late afternoon hours and evening, falling down to around 60 by morning. Tuesday, when many go back to school, will be another beach day if you can get the chance, with highs in the lower 80's and 100 percent sunshine. We really cool off for Wednesday with highs right around 70 and lows getting into the 40's in many areas. Boston will likely fall into the lower 50's. Our cooler spots like Bedford, Plymouth, and Norwood will likely fall around 40 by sunrise. I wouldn't be surprised if Norwood fell into the upper 30's as this morning they fell to 40 degrees.

We warm right back up by the weekend with highs in the 80's by Thursday and pushing 90 by both Friday and Saturday. Enjoy it while it lasts because indications are that by mid month, we will start to cool off with more in the way of rain and clouds, which wouldn't be a bad thing as we could really use some rain to green up these lawns.

Have a nice, comfortable, relaxing, Labors' Day.

Felix Becomes Second Major Hurricane

After Dean, the tropics started to "cool" off for a while, but they are alive and kicking in this peak time of the hurricane season. (actual peak September 10th) Felix has quickly gained hurricane status after becoming a minimal tropical storm yesterday morning at the 8AM update.

Felix became a hurricane last night with winds of 75 mph, but quickly gained strength over the warm waters south of where Dean tracked.

Currently, Hurricane Felix is a strong Category 3 storm with winds of 125 mph, nearly a Category 4 storm. It has already achieved major hurricane status and is only going to intensify as it heads toward the Yucatan's southern coasts, including Belize. Felix should become a Category 4 storm by tomorrow night as winds will be in the 135-145 mph range. It should head over the Yucatan and then spill into the Gulf as a tropical storm and then intensify again to a hurricane, Category 1 or 2 before hitting the coast of old Mexico again, but the southern coasts of Texas is not out of the woods yet. Its still a long way out.

More on this developing situation later and there could be more things brewing in the Atlantic as well, farther away, and closer to home here in southern New England. Updates on these entities as well if they should develop.

Take Advantage

Here we are in the "unofficial" last weekend of Summer 2007. Could you ask for a better ending to a great summer. This entire week looks to be completely dry and completely sunny with seasonable temperatures on Sunday before warming up for the last real summer BBQ's on Labor Day, Monday. Temperatures should get into the upper 80's and lower 90's away from the shore on Labor Day this year. It will be somewhat humid, but again, not oppressively so. Dewpoints will be in the low 60's. You'll feel it, but it won't be that bad and it will not last that long. We are back into the 70's by Tuesday and in the lower 70's on Wednesday with cooling seabreezes along the coast possible. Later next week, we will really start to heat up to the point where we may be in the 90's by Friday, just in time for many local high school football teams to kick off another season. The heat won't last and we could really get some nice fall air in the eastern third of the country by later next week.

In the tropics, Tropical Storm Felix formed this morning and has winds up to 45 mph at the 8AM hour. It will continue to strengthen and head in a westerly direction, south of where Dean went. It could strike the Yucatan, the southern part, or Belize, sometime this week as a Category 1 or 2 storm with winds approaching 100-110 mph. We'll see how this develops. More on Tropical Storm Felix later.