A Return to Winter is Inevitable Next Week

I have really pulled back temperatures for this week from a few days ago. It does not look like we will get into the 60's or 70's anymore. Mid and upper 50's to near 60 is still possible, but the weather will get progressively worse each day this week. First today will be a partly cloudy sky with highs in the lower 50's and tomorrow will feature the same sky with temperatures slightly warmer into he mid to perhaps upper 50's away from the shore and where there is still a decent snowpack, where temperatures will be in the upper 40's to around 50.

Wednesday's forecast temperature is quite variable at this time. A couple computer models have a front going through our area already and this would yield temperatures falling into the 40's and 30's during the day after an early morning high of around 50. Another has gusty SSW winds blowing through SNE which would mean we would be in the 60's. So, I took the middle ground and went for mid 50's for the high, and rain will be moving in during the day, highest probability the later you get in the day. This rain may actually mix with and change to wet snow during the overnight hours Wednesday and into Thursday morning. Little or no accumulation would be expected.

A lull is forecasted most of the day Thursday with spotty showers of rain south, wet snow north. More precipitation may come into SNE with a secondary system spawning along the stationary polar front that passed through the area on Wednesday. This may yield a band of some moderate to perhaps heavy precipitation into SNE with temperatures borderline as to whether it would be rain or snow. As always, the further north you are, the better chance of seeing some snow. This would continue into Friday and would clear out before the St. Patrick's Day festivities on Saturday. The St. Patty's Day Parade in Boston and others in SNE will be mighty cold with temperatures in the 20's with a biting wind. If we get snow late week, the sidewalks in Southie will have to be cleared for the spectators. So if you're going to the parade, you may need to bring a shovel to get that good spot on the route.

This storm, no matter what it delivers in the form of snow, will usher in a more cold and progressively stormy pattern for the eastern third of the lower 48. Anywhere from north of Richmond, VA to the Canadian border is fair game for snow and cold. More on this as we get closer, but I knew that 27 forecasted high for St. Patty's Day would stick out like a sore thumb, and if you're not careful at the parades, you will get frostbite on your thumbs.

Enjoy the spring warmth now and prepare for the cold and snow coming up later next week...I know I will be.

Warm Air will be Nice, but a Tease...

Our recent cold snap is coming to an end. Tomorrow will mark the beginning of a warmup that will be quick and tease us that spring has sprung only to have the other shoe drop later next week. More on that early next week. For now, I am pressed for time, so just take the forecast for what its worth and I will talk to you all later. That Wednesday temperature is no typo either. That would be a 72. By next Friday, we will be back in the 30's.

Spring is on the Way

Spring is most certainly on its way, slowly but surely. I see springlike temperatures sneeking their way back into the forecast as well. Tomorrow morning will be the last frigid morning in a while with lows generally ranging from -5 to 5 above. We just went through our last frigid afternoon, as tomorrow afternoon will reach into the lower 30's with limited or no wind, which will make it feel a whole lot warmer than it actually is. Saturday we get much warmer with highs getting into the lower 50's. We keep moving on up on Sunday with highs getting back into the mid to upper 50's with a chance of a few showers in the area, but it will not be a heavy or sustained rain at all. It will be showery type of rains with generally less than a tenth to a quarter of an inch.

A backdoor cold front will try to sneek through eastern SNE on Monday which will mean temperatures will just stay in the upper 40's in eastern New England, but just inland temperatures will manage the middle to upper 50's once again. Tuesday western New England goes to 60 and eastern New England gets into the middle 50's. I want to tell you that by next Tuesday, it will feel really nice with highs getting into the middle to upper 60's regionwide with a WSW wind that will slope down the mountains and warmup reaching the coast, where the warmest temperatures will be found. Wednesday will be the last day of real warmth with highs that may soar into the lower 70's in SNE! A few areas may bounce all the way up to near 75?!

Thereafter, we may go back into a colder pattern? That is a question that remains to be seen, but until then, lets just stick with the relatively short term, before we go out on a limb on the GFS down the road by about 7 to 10 days.

The End is in Sight...

Are you getting tired of this frigid air that just won't give up. There is nothing worse than Arctic air wasted. Temperatures in the single digits and teens with unlimited sunshine are quite a rarity in March in any part of the lower 48. We had that yesterday and today warmed a little but tomorrow we go back into the freezer. Highs tomorrow will struggle to reach 20, and winds will pick up at night with a few snow showers or snow squalls that could cause some limited visibility with briefly moderate to heavy snow and wind. A coating to half inch is not out of the question. That will usher in extremely cold air with lows getting below zero for Friday morning in many areas. Boston and urban areas may stay at about 5 for a low. Just outside of the city, -2 to -4 is not out of the question and in northern Worcester county, lows may dip to near -10 in the most sheltered valleys. We warm up remarkably in the afternoon with highs getting all the way to 30. In some places, a temperature rise of 40 degrees is not out of the question.

From then on, its onto spring we go. Saturday will feel great with highs approaching 50 in many locals. Sunday and Monday we warm up still with highs in the mid 50's. We may see a shower or two Sunday afternoon, but that would be just about it. We continue to warm up for Monday and there are signs now that we could be into the 60's for Monday. Many places could be seeing highs topping out into the middle 60's! We haven't seen this since early January. Warmer for Wednesday with highs budging 70 degrees from Boston to Providence and maybe lower 70's in Hartford down to New York City. Washington DC and Baltimore may be talking about temperatures nudging 80 after getting about 2-4" of snow today with a potent little clipper. Some parts of MD, received more than 10" of snow today with this clipper system. What a storm. In one week from now, we may want to start thinking about what to plant in the garden this year and seeing all the flowers popping out of the ground and possibly some trees starting to pop leaves with the warm March sun angle. Highs in the 70's in March with the sun will do much more than highs in the 70's in January for the flowers and trees.

Are we just going to forget about winter now and just fall head first into spring without looking back? I am not sure. My gut feeling is that I would be surprised if we didn't get at least one more cold shot after this initial warmup next week. Mother Nature, I am sure has lots of tricks up her sleeve for us after giving such an easy and uneventful winter. We may be digging out in April or we may be in line for one of the busiest and most scary hurricane seasons of the past decades with La Nina coming on strong!

I am not going to get so far ahead of myself I start eating my own words, so I will leave it at that and stick with the six day forecast. Just two more days of wintertime cold and then spring, warmth, baseball, no winter jackets, golf, mowing the lawn, HERE WE COME!!!

Arctic Express Makes its Presence Known

The coldest day of the season could be on tap for tomorrow with many areas not getting out of the "tweens." The bigger cities may make a run at 15 to 18 degrees tomorrow afternoon, but that will be about it. Lows in the morning will be in the lower single digits. We rebound a tad for Wednesday with highs in the lower 20's regionwide, but the tradeoff will be a little snowfall, especially along the south coast of CT and RI and the Cape and Islands may see a little fluffy snowfall. Right now it looks as if most of the precipitation with this system will pass to the south of us and deliever areas from the Great Lakes to Pittsburg to Philadelphia and Baltimore to the Jersey Shore a chance at snow advisory type snows, on the tune of 3-5". A few places in south central PA may actually pick up 6-7" of fluff. The south coast of SNE and Cape may see a D-3". Nantucket could pick up close to 4", but that remains to be seen. One more day using the computer models and then it will be a nowcast type of event.

That clipper will deliver in another arctic blast with temperatures back in the teens for Thursday after morning lows probably in the single digits below zero in most rural areas. In the north, acutal low temperatures could be in the -15 to -25 degree range with wind chills closer to -30 to -40 degrees! Is this March? Yes it is and it will be marked by wild swings. We are warming past the freezing mark by Friday and we are pushing 50 by Sunday with rain showers back in the forecast.

Long range, it looks like next week will generally be a mild one with highs in the 40's and 50's, but there is a sign on at least a couple of computer models that by the end of next week we could be back into a colder regime with stormy weather still entrenched. Something to watch, so just throwing it out there that even though we will warm up this weekend into next week after getting blasted by the arctic air tomorrow through Thursday and Friday, winter is not over until the fat lady sings and old man winter has to have a few more tricks up his sleeve for we can't just end on such a boring and uneventful note, snow-wise, this season. We did last year, sort of, as last March was miserable for snow and rain for that matter, but on April 5th we were all surprised with our little 2-4" snowstorm that interrupted all sorts of baseball and softball practices alike.

More on the forecast and the little Wednesday snow event for the extreme southern part of SNE tomorrow.

Quiet Weather Ahead...But Wild Temperature Swings Ahead

I hope you enjoyed the near 60 degree readings yesterday. Tomorrow that will become a thing of the past. It won't be all that cold with highs in the mid to upper 30's but an Arctic cold front that has been advertised for a while will be moving through the area tomorrow night, during the evening rush with a big burst of wind and flurries and possibly some scattered briefly heavy snow squalls that could deposit a quick dusting to one inch of snowfall. Tuesday will be mighty cold with highs struggling to reach 20 degrees in Boston and highs will struggle to get out of the teens in Boston's suburbs. Lows will drop into the single digits. This cold shot will last into Thursday and Friday and we will get out of the freezer by Saturday with highs approaching 50 degrees once again with scattered rain showers possible.

Frigid Returns Early Week

Spring Preview Saturday

First of all I want to say that the 'winter storm' that just went through was nothing more than a huge waste of time on everybody's part. What a bust. I just had a sneeking suspision yesterday that this thing would turn into a total bust and it did. Where I live, we got an hour of moderate snow that quickly turned to sleet and then by 4AM the temperature was already above freezing and it was raining and raining quite heavily, causing lots of yard and street flooding as the ground is still frozen. Areas up north did see some snow, especially north of Concord, NH. These areas generally saw a quick 5-8" of snow with a few areas that saw local amounts to 10" or a little bit more. Anyway, lets get that behind us and look forward to a spring preview for tomorrow.

Highs tomorrow will reach into the lower to mid 50's across SNE, warmest just away from the coast, where there may actually be a sea breeze to knock down temperatures into the mid 40's tomorrow afternoon. This would be for Boston, the Cape and North Shore. Otherwise, it will be spectacular. Some showers will move in tomorrow night with the passage of a cool front that will knock down temperatures for Sunday.

Sunday's highs will be about 10 to 15 degrees below what they were on Sunday. Many areas will top out at around 40 degrees. Monday will be a transitional day with temperatures in the middle 30's ahead of a very powerful March Arctic front, that will usher in some finger numbing cold for Tuesday. Ahead of the arctic cold front, there may be some snow squalls and snow showers that break out and may dump some brief, but locally heavy snow in some areas, mainly north into VT, NH and northern MA. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a quick 1-2" of accumulation in this area with this frontal passage.

This will usher in frigid air for a one day stand. Tuesday's highs will not make it out of the teens in many areas north and temperatures will likely stay in the 20's in SNE with mostly sunny skies. Temperatures rebound to the freezing mark Wednesday and we warm up from there. Highs should be approaching 40 by late week. No snowstorms in sight.

Thats all for now, stay dry, you only have to wait less than 24 hours for some real spring weather!

10PM UPDATE...Major Downgrading

Its 10PM and the newest model information is coming in and it does not look good at all. All the models have pushed the rain/snow line way far north into southern New Hampshire and Vermont with this go around for the majority of the storm. I had tried to post an updated map for the accumulation, but there were errors. Instead I will just tell it to you.

Right now I am going for all rain in CT, RI, and most of MA, except for very close to the MA/NH state border. This rain will total 1-3" in SNE, which will likely cause flooding where the ground is still frozen and snow covered, like my backyard with still a 4-6" snowcover.

Further north into southern New Hampshire and Vermont, snow accumulations of 1-4" of possible, with the most the more elevation you have and the further north you are. North of Concord, there will likely be 4-8" with 8"+ in the White Mountains and into Maine. It looks to be a great storm for ski country and Saturday will be a great day to go skiing up North. Down South, not so good. Many areas will lose most of their snowpack tomorrow and with temperatures 50 to 55 on Saturday, all the snowpack will vanish in SNE.

Thats all for now, expect your 10PM and 11PM newscasts starting to downgrade and push their snowfall amounts to the north. The NWS should follow suit soon and by tomorrow morning, I would not be surprised if the Winter Weather Advisory is canceled in SNE and the Winter Storm Warning is discontinued in southern New Hampshire. We will see, but that is just my amateur opinion.

Final Call on March Winter Storm

Here is my final call for the storm. I pushed the mainly rain line much closer into the city of Boston. I am keeping much of SNE in the 1-3" range, with up to 3-6" in northern Worcester county. All of this snow will generally accumulate by daybreak Friday which may cause some delayed openings for schools north of the Mass Turnpike. Closer to the state border and especially in Worcester County, there may be a few closings with numerous school closings likely in southern NH and VT.

You can read my reasoning on lowering snowfall accumulations from yesterday's post in the comment section of the last post. Generally, I think this will be a storm that will raise hopes, only to dash them as many media outlets may be forecasting up to 6" near Boston, which just will not happen. Sorry snowlovers.

Quick City by City Forecast

IN MASSACHUSETTS

Boston: 1"

Woburn: 2"

Worcester: 3"

Fitchburg: 4.5"

Lowell: 3.5

Methuen: 3"

NEW HAMPSHIRE

Nashua: 5"

Manchester: 6"

Concord: 7"

North Conway: 18"

MAINE

Portland: 7"

Bangor: 10"

Sunday River: 20"

That is all for now, I wish I had better news for SNE snowlovers, but I just don't. Some good news is that an arctic blast is forecasted to slam the region by early next week with highs in the lower 20's. Chances of snow? Possible. We will have to wait and see.