EXTENDED FORECAST TURNS FRIGID

FIRST MAJOR WINTER STORM ON THE WAY FOR MLK DAY

Our first significant winter storm is on its way for Martin Luther King Jr. Day. It is looking more and more likely that this storm will be bringing lots of winter precipitation to a wide area of New England, including SNE. In fact "northern" SNE and "southern" Central New England may see the jackpot out of this storm, which will likely be Winter Storm Warning criteria type snows. This map is the preliminary snowfall accumulation map. In the green on the Cape, they will see mostly rain, but even they will likely turn to snow at the very end of the storm. Far north into Ski Country of Northern New England, precipitation will be lighter with perhaps a good accumulation of about a few inches. South of the Pike, in the pink area, there will be a rain/sleet situation transitioning over to snow. North of the Pike and south of Route 2, there will be more in the way of snow with perhaps a few to several inches. We will have to wait and see how this pans out. In the darker blue area, the storm will be mostly if not all snow. This is where the heaviest precipitation will be, so this area will have the heaviest snow. I would say that southern NH will have the heaviest snow accumulation. Right now, a solid six inches or more is possible. I will make a more detailed map, with numbers as we get closer to this upcoming storm, but the target day is Monday and it could carry on into the Tuesday morning commute with perhaps lots of snow and slick roads to cause delays.

One thing to mention is that when I mean that a wintry mix will be around, especially Sunday night north of the Pike, I mean we will see sleet and perhaps worst of all freezing rain which could reek havoc on the roadways and may cause power outages. Getting a slushy snow on top of it will only mask the ice accretion and we will have problems.

Whatever does fall Monday will stick around for a while as all of next week looks to be FRIGID as I have been advertising for a long time now. Highs on Tuesday will be chilly, mainly in the upper 20's. Wednesday may stay in the upper 10's to around 20 and we could be starting the morning here in SNE, around 0. Central and northern New England will likely be BELOW ZERO to begin the day Wednesday and the Frigid air will persist through the week.

This is our pattern change. Enjoy, I know I will.

FIRST WINTER STORM TO FORECAST FOR NEW ENGLAND

A major winter storm is developing and will affect much of the eastern part of the US. There will be a wide swath of significant snow from Kansas through Missouri, Illinois, the Ohio Valley, Pennsylvania, Upstate New York, and into central and northern New England. All these places are in line for a very significant snowstorm on the order of about 4"+. If this area of significant snow makes it into southern New England, it is still yet to be seen. First of all, it will be very mild tomorrow with highs in the low 50's. Don't get used to it. A backdoor cold front moves through Saturday with a snow shower North and a rain shower South, bringing temperatures back to the lower 40's and falling through the 30's during the afternoon. Sunday will be chilly here with highs in the mid - upper 30's. Storm clouds will be moving in during the afternoon. In San Diego, the Patriots will see nice weather with highs in the mid 60's. Another great day to play football. Then it gets very interesting around here.

My early call is that areas north of the MA/NH border will see mostly snow out of this entire system, areas north of the Mass Pike will see a mix of rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow during the storm. Right now it could be either of these. I would favor more of a snow/sleet situation north of Route 2. More of a messy mix between Route 2 and the Pike. South of the Pike, I think that there will be mostly rain, but all areas are fair game for a quick change to all snow at the tail end of the storm, maybe with some accumulating snow. Northern New England, you got your wish. Skiing will be great with many areas getting a moderate to heavy snowstorm with 6-10" of snow, preliminary, especially heavy in central Vermont and central New Hampshire. Conway, NH could see some of the heaviest accumulations out of this one. Northern New England will not have precipitation issues as highs on Monday here will be in the upper 10's, far NNE, to mid 20's. SNE will be more borderline from the upper 20's in southern New Hampshire, lower 30's north of the Pike to mid - upper 30's with a chilly rain south of the Pike.

Expect changes with this storm and I will post them in the days ahead as we have tons of time before this thing is even here.

THE COLD HAS RETURNED FOR NOW...

Yes, the cold air was here today. It will be here tomorrow. I will have to make this a quick post because I have a paper due tomorrow. So it will be short and sweet. I agree that the "warm" air will make a run back at us for Friday and most of Saturday. I am not totally bought on an all rainstorm for Sunday - Monday quite yet, although that is the way I am leaning, towards a mostly rain event for areas in SNE. NNE may be a different story all together. That storm busts through and by Tuesday we are into the true Arctic air. Highs will likely be in the 20's and it will feel even colder with a biting north wind. Windchills will be in the 10's. Thereafter, we will be looking for our next snow threat, and I mean snow threat. No rain with the pattern upcoming next week and beyond.

More on the Martin Luther King Day storm potential in the days to come.

SURGING WARMTH YET AGAIN...

What a nice little January SNE rainstorm we had today. Rain pretty much from sunup to sundown. Rain was pretty heavy and soaking around two this afternoon. Most areas picked up between 0.75" to 1.5" of liquid today, except areas in the North, especially northern NH and Maine. In NH, northern areas picked up between 2-5" of slushy wet snow before transitioning to sleet and then rain. Areas in northern Maine got their snowstorm and wound up with a mostly all snow situation, with upwards of 6-8" of snow, heavy wet snow at that. That storm is ancient history now and we are looking forward. We are looking forward to colder air tomorrow. Tomorrow will still be above average, but not as much. We will see highs generally in the lower 40's, with ample sunshine, developing clouds late afternoon. There could be a widely scattered flurry, especially south of the Pike overnight Tuesday and Wednesday morning, but that we be just about it. That leads us into a decent Thursday with highs in the upper 30's to around 40, after morning lows in the upper 10's and low 20's. Crazy that Boston has yet to go below 32 this entire month. Thats over 200 hours of above freezing temperatures in the city of Boston. Amazing. The warmth surges back again on Friday with highs likely back into the mid 50's once again and even warmer on Saturday. Highs could easily top out in the upper 50's Saturday and Sunday, ahead of a strong Arctic, pattern changing, cold front, we may see temperatures soar to near record levels once again. Low 60's? A possiblility. Then as the graphic from Accuweather shows, we will be transitioning into a much colder, blocked pattern across the eastern 2/3 of the lower 48. This will be a pattern more condusive for sustained cold and more snow chances. There are signs now that the NAO could be dropping to near neutral by the middle of next week. Keep in mind that we usually get our biggest snowstorms when the NAO is nearing neutral. Ie the President's Day Blizzard of 2003 that dropped 27"+ to Logan and a widespread 18-24" to the entire megalopolis, from DC to Boston. Something to keep an eye on at least.

After Sunday's possible incredible warmth part II, I see Monday being a transition day with colder, much colder air blasting in from the WNW. I see Monday with highs likely in the mid-upper 30's, but in a few days, you will likely start to see some real cold entering the six day forecast. I am talking highs likely staying in the 20's and lows easily in the 10's and perhaps some 0's in the colder valleys for overnight temperatures. Ie, Norwood, Bedford, Taunton. Watch out.

COLD TO BALMY AGAIN...

Tomorrow will be a rainy day. Rain moves in tonight and it will come down at a pretty good clip. Rain, heavy at times, will continue into the morning. It will taper into the afternoon and be totally shut off by the PM commute. All said and done, we are talking about a healthy 1-2" of rainfall across much of SNE. However, there is a Winter Weather Advisory in effect for Berkshire Co. in MA and VT, NH and Maine for some freezing rain possible at the start. It will change to rain there as well. Where the cold air is stronger, more entrenched, in northern Maine, namely Caribou, like I said yesterday, they are currently under a Winter Storm Watch for around 6-10" of snowfall. I think that forecast may be overdoing it a bit, but a heavy wet 4-7" of snow looks probable to me.

Tuesday will be nice and cold with highs around 40. A clipper type system will be moving through the southern Ohio Valley at this time and could be depsiting a good 1-3" of snow over Cincinnatti and western PA, Pittsburgh may get a couple inches of snow out of this one as well. It will cut through West Virginia where it could deposit 3-6" of snow at Snowshoe, WV. The Appalachians will eat what is left of the storm and cause it to weaken and just head harmlessly out to sea. We may see a passing flurry at worst Tuesday night.

Wednesday will be cold with highs in the lower to mid 30's, but we warm right back up again and by Friday we are back where we started, mid 50's with another storm likely heading west of us on Saturday which will propell us well into the 50's on Saturday, could we be talking record breaking heat again next Saturday. Possibly, I do not know the exact record for the 13th, but its possible.

Sunday, out of the forecast, could be mild again, but thereafter, the Arctic air finally looks to be moving in (for good?) next week. We will easily have highs by the middle of next week, struggling to get out of the 20's with lows in the single digits and teens. Northern New England may stay in the single digits for highs during the peak of the cold which is great news for snowmakers in the resorts. Now we just need to get some snow from Mother Nature and we will be back in business.

Thats all for now, more tomorrow.

Warm to Cold to Warm All Over Again

Well after temperatures in the lower 70's this afternoon, I can tell you that we probably will not see that kind of warmth again probably until April. Today was extreme and I hope it doesn't happen again this winter. Not that I didn't enjoy the June-like high temperatures. Baltimore hit 76 degrees today. This is insanity at its best. Tomorrow will be 15 to 20 degrees cooler than today, but it will still be 10 to 15 degrees above average. Go figure. The Pats game looks to go on without a hitch. Temperatures in the lower to mid 50's with a light breeze and partly to mostly sunny skies throughout the game. No chance of any rain. The rain will hold off until tomorrow night and Monday morning until about the early afternoon.

We could be in for quite a little rainstorm tomorrow night and Monday with perhaps another 1" to 1.5" of rainfall. On the backside of the storm, northern Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine may see a quick changeover to snow, after seeing mostly rain from the front end of the storm. The changeover to snow may accumulate to a couple inches in these areas. However in northern Maine, namely Caribou, this event may stay mostly snow and you guys may pick up a good 4-8" of snow, Winter Storm Watches may need to be posted by early tomorrow morning as you may see high end Advisory type snows or low Warning criteria snows. Generally about 6".

This storm ushers in some much colder air for Tuesday and Wednesday, but thats all it will do. We will just have a two day period of average to below average temperatures. Tuesday will be around 40 degrees with high cloudiness late. A few days ago, it looked like a healthy clipper type system would move south of our area and deposit some healthy snows on the order of 2-4" in SNE, but today's runs of the models show a much weaker scenario. Right now I would be that all SNE will see out of this Alberta Clipper is a scattered flurry, but this will be more confined to the South Coast and the Cape. It will be cold Wednesday with highs just getting over the freezing mark.

Since we are not changing the pattern, the cold will be in and out before the next real storm really moves in by Saturday. SW flow will begin on Thursday propelling much of SNE into the 40's. We step up again on Friday and will head into the weekend, basking in the January warmth again, mainly in the lower 50's before another storm cuts west of us and sends us into the "balmy" and tropical air once again. A repeat next Saturday? Geez, I hope not.

This winter is ridiculous. That rubber band has to shoot the other way soon. Right?

BREAKING OUT THE SHORTS AND FLIP FLOPS FOR SATURDAY?!

You think its warm out there, just wait until Saturday. You don't know what is warm for Saturday. Before that, we will have a decent day temperature wise tomorrow with highs soaring into the mid - upper 50's with cloudy skies and rain off and on. Saturday will feature AMAZING warmth with highs soaring into the 60's. If we get enough sunshine, which I think we will, highs will easily soar into the mid 60's. That is just how warm this airmass that is moving into our area will be. Some towns may come in with a 66 or 67 degree reading as well, if we get into enough sunshine. I am going with a high of 65 with any rain showers ending early and sunshine developing around noon and beyond. It will be a steamy day...maybe even time to break out the shorts? Possible, amazingly.

We will cool down for Sunday, the Pats game will be nice and mild. Gametime temperatures will be around 50 and hover around 50 most of the game, under mostly sunny skies. Monday we will cool down some more with rain likely, a cold rain at that with highs generally around 40 or 42. Rain/snow line, if the precip makes it that far will be in southern VT and NH and northwestern MA, in the Berkshires. We continue to cool for Tuesday and Wednesday with highs likely staying in the lower 30's by Wednesday. Won't that be a shock to the system, after Saturday's record warmth.

Looking for the cold to persist? Not this time, it looks like the cold air will be in and out by late week next week we will be back to above normal temperatures by 5 - 10 degrees. I don't think we will see a significant change in the pattern to more persistent cold until after Jan. 18th, or when the NAO looks to be tanking negative in the long term forecasts, which it does not appear any time soon, sadly. We will get winter, i think. Thats all for today.

IS THIS JANUARY?

DETAILED EXTENDED FORECAST

WEDNESDAY: A very nice day, with partly cloudy skies. SW wind 10 - 20 mph. Highs lower to mid 50's.

THURSDAY: Another nice and mild day. SW winds 10 - 20 mph. Highs upper 50's to around 60.

FRIDAY: Wet day overall. Widespread showers and rain. Rainfall may exceed 0.5" to 1.00". All rain into northern New England. Highs SNE lower to mid 50's. NNE highs in the 40's.

SATURDAY: Rain showers tapering early morning. May continue to be cloudy/drizzly through noon. Clouds may break early afternoon which will yield to near record highs. (lower 60's) Record for Boston is 62, we may come very close. Very mild overnight with lows in the middle 40's.

SUNDAY: Looks to be good for the Pats - Jets game. Partly Cloudy skies with increasing cloudiness late afternoon with approaching storm from the SW, riding along a stationary front. Highs in the mid 50's. Gametime temperatures (1 PM) 53 at kickoff to 48 when the Pats win.

MONDAY: Weak storm system riding to our south. May spread rain mainly south of the Mass Pike. Areas north of the Pike may be cold enough for a marginal rain/snow event if the precipitation moves that far north, but I wouldn't bet my life on that. Will likely see just showers south of the Pike with perhaps a more steady, but light, rain on the South Coast and down on the Cape and Islands. Temperatures will likely have a large spread. Highs north of the Pike to southern NH will likely stay in the upper 30's to around 40. South of the Pike ranging from the mid 40's to around 50 down on the Cape and Islands. Turning briefly colder for Tuesday before we warm up all over again.

DISCUSSION: Well, it seems like we are living in some place other than Boston or New England. Ridiculously warm temperatures will continue again tomorrow and for the rest of the week until perhaps Monday. Before that, we may come close to RECORD WARM temperatures on Saturday, especially closer to the coast with highs likely in the the upper 50's to near 60. Boston record for Saturday is 62, so I figured why not, we've been so mild, we might as well get another record out of it. Sunday will "cool" a bit with mid 50's before a cold front meanders with our area for early next week which may give some some wintry precipiation, but a little wet snow or sleet would be all that we would see. No accumulation. Then we go into a little cold spell for Tuesday with normal temperatures, mainly in the mid 30's. Thereafter, we will warm right back up, the way it looks right now into the mid - upper 40's to around 50 to end off the week next week. However, I am still eyeing a potential Pattern Change for the time period of January 16 - 18th, for a change in the jet stream with the Pac Jet becoming more amplified in the West, forcing cold air from the north in Canada, namely the North Pole, to slide in here with a Polar Vortex in northern Canada funneling the cold air into the eastern third of the country with above normal temperatures in the West for a change. So, today the 2nd, I am still all aboard for the PATTERN CHANGE. It just may be delayed a bit from my earlier thinking. Thats all for today, like I have been saying all winter, enjoy the warmth. Its New England, it can't last forever?

UGLY TIMES FOR SNOWLOVERS...

Happy New Year everyone! We enter the new year with the same old weather pattern. Warm, mild, and snowless. The first week of January 2007 looks to be very similar to the way most of January 2006 was. Tomorrow will be a fairly mild day for January with highs in the mid 40's regionwide; 30's in northern New England. Wednesday southwest winds will increase and warm air from the southwest will flood into New England. Highs by Wednesday will soar nicely into the lower 50's. As the high pressure system moves further offshore, towards Bermuda, "Bermuda High" highs will soar Thursday into the mid - upper 50's. I cannot even rule out the possibility of an isolated 60 degree reading. Friday into Saturday, our warm spell will continue and rain will move in by Friday night into Saturday morning, looking like Friday night could be quite damp, but not white.

Pats game against the Jets looks to be nice at this point, but we will be entering an unsettled weather pattern at the end of this week with many storms riding along a front. Enjoy the warmth this week. As others have backed down from the approaching pattern change for mid - month, I am still forecasting a major pattern change back to more persistent cold for the Northeast, I am not so sure that areas in the Mid Atlantic, south of Philadelphia will get all that cold. We will see. More updates on the incredible warmth, December '06 was the warmest month on record since the late 1800's. Average temperature of 41.7 degrees for the month, shattering the old record.