BLIZZARD OF 2013 INCOMING

FIRST CALL:  (2-6-13 at 10PM) - Right now this one is heading straight for the record books.  We have been waiting for years for a significant snowstorm and we are finally getting one and all at once!  The computer models are coming in stronger and stronger and juicier and juicier (meaning more snow).  Some models are spitting out amounts of 40"+ for NE MASS and SE NH!  In the 10 years I have been actively tracking weather here in SNE, I have never seen this.  Perhaps January 2005 is a good analogue, but I think the severe impacts will be felt over a much larger area across SNE.  Not only will we have the snow, but we will have strong winds (strongest over the Cape overnight Friday night).  Peak wind gusts could approach or exceed hurricane force strength ( >74mph).  This will create whiteout conditions for several hours, leading to blizzard conditions across much of the area.  Snow starts from south to north during the early morning hours of Friday.  The heaviest waits until Friday night when overnight snowfall rates may exceed 4" per hour!  The snow slowly tapers mid to late afternoon Saturday.  More updates later.  Please make your preparations tomorrow.  Expect to be without power for a few days just to be safe.  This is one you may be talking about for years to come!

History in the Making...

UPDATE (Feb. 6, 2013 - 5PM)  Blizzard watches are in effect for eastern Massachusetts currently.  We have ourselves a historic storm in the making.  Above is the latest NWS estimate of snowfall accumulations (18-24").  To tell you the truth, I would not be surprised to see 30"+ in some locations.  We are entering hallowed ground here folks.  Keep attuned to the news and weather websites.

Here is the latest bulletin from the NWS:

...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

* LOCATIONS...MUCH OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS WELL AS NORTHERN AND
  CENTRAL RHODE ISLAND. THIS INCLUDES THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE
  CORRIDOR.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD
  CONDITIONS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 12 TO 24 INCHES.

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS BY FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL
  INCREASE INTENSITY DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
  WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
  FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE WORST OF THE STORM WILL BE FRIDAY
  NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER
  HOUR POSSIBLE. TRAVEL MAY BECOME NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE WITH BLOWING
  AND DRIFTING SNOW.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE
FALLING AND/OR BLOWING SNOW WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT
GUSTS OVER 35 MPH AND VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/4 MILE FOR AT LEAST
3 HOURS. WHITE OUT CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAKING TRAVEL
VERY DANGEROUS.  BE PREPARED TO ALTER ANY TRAVEL PLANS.

STAY TUNED!!!

Localized Snowstorm

FINAL CALL (MON 8AM) - Norlun/inverted troughs can be extremely finicky when it comes to where the heaviest band(s) of snow situate.  This one will be no exception.  I fine tuned yesterday's map to include two max zones.  The first max zone will be over the Cape and extreme southeastern MA.  The second max zone will be over extreme NE coastal MA - SE NH - SW coastal ME.  In these max zones I am going for a general 4-8", but please remember that some could get more than that if the placement of the heaviest snow band is just right.  Norluns are known to drop 12"+ in one town and then just an inch or two a few miles away.  So you can see why I labeled this post 'localized snowstorm.'  I  can only give you my best estimate where the heaviest bands will set up.  However, these events are difficult to forecast, so that band could set up further north into Portland, ME or further SW and affect the Boston metro area in a much bigger way.

Regardless, snows break out in western New England by early afternoon and overspread the area during the overnight.  The heaviest snow for eastern sections will occur between midnight and 3AM.  Snow tapers for all by sunrise.  My guess is for school for 95 percent of communities tomorrow.  Updates throughout the day as needed.  

FIRST CALL for Tuesday AM

FIRST CALL (SUN. 1PM) --- Here is my first call for this complex inverted trough scenario.  We won't know exactly where the heaviest of snows are until this event is underway basically, so expect a wide range of forecasts for this one.  Some TV outlets may be calling for 6"+ in Boston and E MA, while others merely forecast an inch or two.  This is my call right now.  I think somebody in E MA does very well, while others (some who are even in the 4-8" shading!) only get a couple inches.

And guess what?  More snow is in the forecast for Friday.  But before that we will have to deal with sub zero mornings in the 'burbs Wednesday and Thursday morning.  Wind chills could be -10F to -15F in SNE!  Get ready.  It's coming.

Prepare for 4 Day Weekend Inside Route 495

UPDATE (SUN 8AM) -- The NWS just issued its preliminary snowfall forecast for the area tomorrow night into Tuesday.  As you can see, they are going for a general few inches across the region with more along the immediate coast and southeast into Cape Cod and the islands. This seems like a good first call to me, but there is certainly the potential to pull some of those high numbers into the Boston metro area, perhaps even all the way back to Route 495 or even Worcester.  We'll be watching the models come in this afternoon with bated anticipation.  If you live inside of 495, please at least prepare to have the kids home from school on Tuesday.  I'd give widespread school closings about a 50 percent chance of verifying at this point.  Next important update later this afternoon before the Pats.

Disaster Tuesday AM Commute?

I am waiting on a few more runs of the models before providing more details, but guidance is trending toward a potentially significant snowstorm (esp. for eastern SNE) Monday night into Tuesday.  Our snow would come from a developing low pressure system off of Nantucket that throws snow back into SNE from a 'Norlun' front.  Norlun fronts can be difficult to forecast.  They often have a narrow band of heavy snow with much lighter snows on either side of it.  Wherever that front stalls, the potential exists for over 6 inches of snow.  Some models have that feature over the ocean, while others give the Boston metro area over a foot of fluffy snow.  We'll have to watch this one closely.  Expect it to come into clearer focus by tomorrow afternoon.  Maybe by then I will be confident enough to put up a map with my first thoughts.  Lastly, GO PATS!

A Southeastern Mass Snowy Surprise Thursday Night?

It looks like my forecast for this past storm worked out pretty well.  Most of SNE (away from the Cape and islands) saw a general 2-5" of snow with this system.  The accumulating snow has tapered and we will be left with drizzle and snizzle for the rest of the afternoon.  Clearing by tonight.

Then we turn our eyes down into the southeastern states where our next storm is taking shape.  This storm looked to develop off the Carolina coast and then meander offshore, leaving SNE high and dry.  However, recent trends (most notably the GFS and NAM) are bringing this closer to our shoreline on Saturday.  Recent model runs even bring measurable snow all the way to the northwest suburbs of Boston!  I am not saying that it is going to make it that far NW (yet), but the potential is there especially for southeastern zones.  Anyone from Plymouth-points south and east should prepare for at least a couple of inches out of this one.  We will watch the trends closely to see if this threat gets any closer to Boston.  For now, I would lean towards mostly dry in the city and nearby suburbs.  Lots to figure out though.  I may do an update later this afternoon or tonight if this becomes more of a threat.  Also, if it holds, I will be issuing my first call snowfall accumulation map by tomorrow afternoon too.

This is going to be a tricky forecast to say the least.

Snow Map for Tomorrow Night

UPDATE (1-15-13) - 3PM:  I'm making that map my final call for tomorrow.  There may be a couple 6" totals in Worcester County or S NH, but not enough to warrant a new map.  The city of Boston will likely finish with about an inch before changing to a wet non-accumulating snow or even light rain.  Once you get to Route 128, then you will quickly see totals increase to a couple inches and more.  The Cape sits this one out again, but we may have a few more significant winter storm threats next week and beyond.  For now, enjoy the snow tomorrow morning.  It will be gone by late morning in western zones and the early afternoon in eastern areas.

FIRST CALL - I'm not tremendously bold with this one for being a significant snow maker for the area, but we should see advisories hoisted for interior zones.  I'm calling for a general 2-4" of snow with perhaps a town or two (esp. a hill town) to finish with a 5" amount.  Closer to the city, we will have to battle with the warm Atlantic Ocean.  SST's are still in the low 40s, so that will do its best to keep the surface warm near the coast.  The biggest wildcard on this map would have to be inside of 495.  As depicted, I have this area shaded in with 1-3".  However, if the winds remain mostly calm, then the ocean will have less of an effect and therefore snow accumulations would be more like interior zones right to the coast.  Boston will likely have trouble regardless, but as close by as Cambridge or Somerville would be able to pick up a few pasty inches of snow.  Further SE over the Cape and islands - I am expecting mostly rain with this one.  Perhaps they can get some wet, non-accumulating snow, but it would be tough to get anything more than that.  If anything changes tonight, I will touch up the map as needed.  For now though, I think this is a fair depiction of what will take place.  

Warmth Departing, Snow Incoming?

Lots to talk about, but I am going to wait until early this afternoon before posting about snow possibilities - likely Tuesday night into Wednesday.  I hope you enjoyed the springtime warmth too.  As I am typing this just before 9AM, it is 54 degrees outside. It may be a while before we see a morning this warm again.
------
5PM UPDATE - Everything seems to be coming together for plowable snows for much of SNE tomorrow night and early Wednesday morning.  This will not be a blockbuster, but some spots could pick up a few inches that would make the Wednesday morning commute a bit of a headache.  All of the computer models are hitting the Mass Pike corridor for heaviest precipitation, but the question remains what type will it be?  The European model is the coldest and the American GFS was the warmest at noon, pushing the rain/snow line up to the Pike, including Boston and the immediate coast.

I think those away from the immediate coast and away from the south coast, Cape, and islands will likely stay mostly snow with this one.  I am working on a snow map now, but waiting for the GFS to come out over the next hour before putting numbers up.  I am feeling a general few inches for most of the area.  Nothing we can't handle.  Still, it will be a shock to the system after many towns soared into the low 60s this afternoon.

Next update with the snowfall accumulation map (first call) around 6PM.

2012 = Warmest Ever

Nope, your senses weren't fooling you the past 12 months.  The lower 48 just experienced its warmest year on record (EVER)!  Here is an excerpt from NOAA that provides a good summary:

NOAA Press Release on Jan. 8, 2012:

According to NOAA scientists, 2012 marked the warmest year on record for the contiguous United States with the year consisting of a record warm spring, second warmest summer, fourth warmest winter and a warmer-than-average autumn. The average temperature for 2012 was 55.3°F, 3.2°F above the 20th century average, and 1.0°F above 1998, the previous warmest year.

The warmth will continue as we are now in the middle of our January thaw.  Highs soared into the middle 40s in eastern Mass late this afternoon after a slow warmup.  Tomorrow will be slightly cooler with highs in the lower 40s, but then we really go to town.  Saturday starts the torch in earnest, approaching 50 degrees or slightly higher.  Then we are still pushing 60 degrees by Sunday afternoon.  Any sunshine we see will boost the temperatures even higher.  If we get a few hours of sun in the late morning and early afternoon, lower 60s is not out of the question.  Sayonara snow pack in southern New England!

Wintertime cold returns midweek, next week.  Enjoy the spring warmth for now.

Early Look at Kickoff Next Sunday...

We are a week away from kickoff at Gillette of the AFC Divisional playoff game.  If you're lucky enough to have a ticket, you may ask what is the weather going to be like at Foxboro.  Normally in mid January, you would expect bitter temperatures or maybe even a snow bowl like in 2001 against the Oakland Raiders.  Well, neither look to be in the cards for this year.  After sustaining a solid snow pack for about 1-2 weeks across much of SNE, a massive January thaw arrives by Tuesday and likely peaks right around the end of next weekend, just in time for the Texans to arrive at the Gillette.  In fact, the Houston players may think that they never actually left Texas in the first place because we could easily be talking middle 50s if not slightly over 60 degrees by Sunday afternoon!

EARLY GUESS GAME TIME CONDITIONS

4:35PM - Sunday, January 13th

------------

Kickoff:  Mid-Upper 50s Dry

Halftime:  Lower 50s Dry

End:  Upper 40s Dry, Slight Risk Shower

Take a look at the 18z GFS depiction of the warmth for next Sunday.  All you have to know is that there will be a broad push from the southwest into SNE that really warms us up.  High pressure just west of Bermuda, coupled with low pressure pushing northeast through the Great Lakes will push the warmest of the air right into SNE on SW winds, likely pretty gusty.  Showers should hold off until after the game with the cold front to the west.  It may take a while for that front to actually get east of us too because that push of warm air is so pronounced.

I do not have time to post later images from the GFS, but I want to drive home the point that this warmth will NOT last.  It is in here for a 6-8 day stint.  Tomorrow will likely be in the middle 30s and then we are in the 40s through Friday before pushing 50 on Saturday and then 60 on Sunday.  Thereafter we really start to cool down and by the middle of next week after the warmup, we will likely be back to 20s/30s for high temperatures.  It still remains to be seen how much snowfall we will see in the new pattern, but we should be able to increase the chances somewhat just with having cold air around.  Most importantly, nearly every computer model (GFS, EURO, GGEM, etc.) agree that this warmup will be short-lived and that winter is far from over.  In other words, enjoy the warmth while you can this week.  

Quiet Week Ahead, January Thaw Imminent

I don't have much time to get into the details, but it looks like this week will be slightly below normal (temperature-wise) with mostly dry conditions.  We may get a flurry or two tonight to ring in the new year, but other than that, don't expect much.  Then indications exist that show much of the country warming up.  The Great Plains will certainly turn much above normal, while we are left on the envelope of the warmth.  Maybe we can get a snow chance yet?

Have safe and happy new year's celebrations tonight!

FINAL CALL: Saturday Snow

(12:00PM / 12-29-12) I updated the snowfall map from last night and really bumped up totals for eastern Massachusetts.  Inside of Route 495 will really get pounded tonight with 1-2"/hr. snows for a few hour period.  The coastal low is now taking over off the Delmarva and really looks impressive on satellite imagery.  Also, the computer models (all of them) strengthen the storm tremendously ("bombogenesis") and push that comma head of most intense snows and wind over eastern Mass.  This is why I had to increase totals to 6-10" in that heaviest band.  SE of it, there will likely be more precipitation (QPF), but it will be warmer and they will have to contend with precipitation type issues for the beginning of the storm.  NW of Plymouth, you should remain mostly if not all snow.  This is the biggest storm in eastern Mass in over 2 years, so please take it easy out there later tonight.  Our winter driving skills haven't been tested in a long time.  Take care.

(11:55PM / 12-28-12) Here is my last call for tomorrow's snow.  Computer models came in a little 'juicier' today, forcing me to increase totals across the board today.  I like interior SE MA, eastern CT, and northern RI for the jackpot area (4-8").  Most areas will likely come in on the lower end of these totals, but it would not shock me if a few towns finished on the higher end.  The one wildcard is the Cape.  If they somehow avoid mixing or starting as rain, then they could be off to the races and that 2-5" call would be extremely conservative.  However, it looks like they will be dealing with precipitation type issues throughout the storm until the very end.  Overall, the further N&W you go, the fluffier the snow.  The closer to the coast and SE MA you go, the more pasty the snow will be.

Start time is from 10AM to 2PM from SW to NE.  Expect it to end some time overnight Saturday or the wee hours of Sunday morning.  Clearing through the morning hours Sunday and a cold Pats game at 4PM at Gillette.  The real Arctic arrives later next week.  By next Friday, high temperatures could struggle to get out of the TEENS with lows BELOW ZERO in the suburbs.  Welcome to winter!  It's been missing in action for the past two years, but I think it's almost safe to say that it is back and with  a vengeance.  

Snow Potential Saturday

Here is a very crude map for the snow potential on Saturday afternoon and night.  I will be the first to tell you that this does not look all that impressive on the computer models and it probably never will.  However, some of the models are printing out a light to moderate event for much of SNE.  The last time I checked, Boston had not seen a 1"+ event in nearly ONE YEAR!  This means that a 2-4" event that would normally barely warrant a mention in a normal winter season now makes headlines.  Let me warn that this one is still many hours away and has the potential to fizzle out and leave us with little if any accumulation.  Some reliable computer models are doing just that, while others are holding serve for advisory snows for many south of Route 2 in Massachusetts.  Even the Cape should get in on the action with any rain quickly changing to all snow down there.  I wanted to wait until the 00z EURO run came out at 1AM, but I can't so I made this knowing that it could change with whatever the reliable EURO comes out with in one hour.  But I think this is a good first guess.  My next update will come tomorrow night late.

Finally a SNE Snowstorm to the Coast En Route?

Possible....More on this later tonight, but pinpointing Saturday night into Sunday for potential significant snows to affect all of SNE including the Cape and islands.

FINAL CALL:  There are two camps with this system - (1) the warm/rainer camp and (2) the colder, snowier camp.  Of course the computer models that the TV weathermen use are showing any snow quickly changing to rain, while the much more reliable EURO computer model continues to show impressive snow just outside of Boston.  I'm taking the warmer route just because the NWS is so conservative with this one and likely for good reason.  I've pushed the heaviest snow amounts NW and dramatically cut any accumulations for the vast majority of SE NE.  I think the changeover line will only make it to about Manchester, NH - Orange, MA - Pittsfield, MA.  NW of there, the storm should be primarily snow.  SE of there, fair game for freezing rain, sleet, and plain rain.  

Again, this map has extreme bust potential either way.  If we can get the precipitation in here quick enough, we can get significant accumulations right inside 128.  If not, I think we will have a map that looks something like this.  On a side note, it now appears that the weekend threat will slide out to sea, maybe scraping the Cape with some light snow or flurries.  Plenty of time for that one to change.

A Messy Midweek Storm

FIRST CALL (12/27 3PM) - Merry Christmas everybody!  I hope everyone enjoyed the little bit of snow we got this morning.  There was a burst around 8-10AM that whitened the ground in eastern MA, but most of that has since melted this afternoon with temperatures getting slightly above freezing.  Don't fret, snow lovers though.  More snow is on the way and it should be here by overnight tomorrow night.  Posted to the right is my first call for snowfall accumulations from this storm.  Many will change to sleet, freezing rain, and plain rain, but not after several hours of moderate to heavy snow.  Even the city of Boston should get several hours of snow too.  Outside of 128 and especially 495 will see mostly frozen precipitation as the temperature will struggle to get over 32 out that way.  Inside 495, after many hours of wintery precipitation, temperatures will warm from the easterly fetch off the warm Atlantic into the middle to perhaps upper 30s and change anything that is falling to plain rain.  The Cape and islands will likely be too warm throughout the storm and temperatures could actually warm into the 40s when the storm makes its closest pass to Nantucket.

All snow will be confined to the northern mountains where over 12 inches of snow is highly possible.  But as you can see, heavy snowfall accumulations will reach all the way down into the NW half of Middlesex County and most of Worcester County through the Berkshires. (Where 6-12" of snow is possible).  Inside 495, the warm Atlantic will likely warm the surface more quickly, limiting accumulations to 3" to as much as 6" (best chance for higher amounts further inland, while somewhere like Boston right on the shore gets more like 1-2", maybe 3").

I will post my final accumulation map tomorrow morning and have more detailed information about start and changeover times.  Again, Merry Christmas to those who celebrate!  We may be able to muster up another storm by the end of this weekend too. More on that potential snow later.

Update on BIG Storm Later Today...

Merry Christmas! I will have an important update of the impressive storm that will be slamming our area beginning tomorrow night and last through Thursday.  SPOILER ALERT - the low now looks to be tracking south of SNE and across Nantucket before exiting off into the maritimes.  Good news for snow lovers! More later.

Festive Christmas Snow

What looked like to be at least advisory snows about 48 hours ago, the Christmas event now looks much more mundane.  Even though we will not be getting crippling amounts of snow, I am sure most will welcome event the small amount as they open up their gifts on Christmas morning.  However, my thinking to the right is probably the 'worst case' scenario, or the snowiest.  Some models have trouble even spitting out anything over SNE.  Others bring a bit more, so I chose the highest impact scenario.  The start time for CT should be right before midnight on Christmas Eve and then into the wee hours Christmas Day for the rest of the region.  There is little risk of rain mixing in, but the South Coast, Cape and Islands should have trouble accumulating with milder temperatures in the middle 30s.  Further north, we should be able to at least accumulate on the grassy surfaces and perhaps the pavement, but rates will likely be so low that the snow will have a hard time accumulating on paved surfaces.

The storm for the 27th and 28th still looks like a big rainstorm and the models have been pretty consistent in showing that storm as such.  More details on that after we move past this low-impact event on Christmas Day.

Christmas Day Snow - An Early Look

UPDATE (12/22 - 5PM) - What a horrible run of the models today for snow lovers.  After last night's overnight EURO run dropping high-end advisory to low-end warning snows along the Mass Pike right into Boston, today's EURO nearly dropped the system off the radar - pun intended.  Now the early evening model runs are also showing this system losing steam as it heads out of the OH Valley and through PA.  Because of the weaker life and lower rates, it will likely warm into the middle 30s during the daytime on Christmas Day too, which will also limit accumulations near the coast.  Perhaps the Worcester Hills could still be able to pick up an inch or two, but even that might be generous with the unfortunate trends today.  We are still about 60-72 hours away, so the models could turn back to the snowier/more amplified scenario later tonight or during tomorrow.  However, in my experience, once these start to trend weaker at the 'last minute', then we probably will not return to the solutions that were giving much of the region a few to several inches of snow overnight Christmas Eve and Christmas Day morning.

We still have the late week system too though? Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but all computer models are focusing on that system to amplify rather quickly once it is in the TN Valley.  Consequently, there is not much of a handoff to the secondary that 'was' developing off the Mid Atlantic coast in previous days' runs. Also, the high pressure system to the north of us is weaker and further west (north-northwest) too, which also allows this thing to push up the spine of the Apps.  A secondary low pressure surface reflection tries to show later in the game near NYC, but even that gets pulled WNW on  most of the computer models, flooding much of SNE with warm maritime air that changes any brief period of snow at the onset to heavy rain with strong southeasterly winds.  Even ski country might have a hard time dodging the rain drops with this one if it verified as depicted on the models today.  This one is still about 4.5 to 5 days out, so we still have time to work on the details, but the trend is definitely not our friend (if you're a snow lover anyway).

Last minute shopper?  Tomorrow should be a fine day (weather-wise at least) to get to the malls.

00z GFS - 12-22-2012

I am updating the blog from last night's optimism regarding the potential snow for Christmas Day.  Well, it now appears more likely after tonight's late hour model runs.  Last night's EURO run and this afternoon's EURO run gave much of SNE several inches of snow, away from the Cape and Islands.  Now the American model (GFS) is coming on board with a snowier solution too as depicted above.  

The GFS still keeps this as mostly a Pike-south event, but the EURO (admittedly a more reliable model) gets at least a few inches up across the MA/NH border.  Right now I would have to go in the middle of the two, but tend to favor the EURO solution.  The newest EURO solution comes out at 1:15AM, so we will have to wait and see if it keeps the Christmas Day snow hope alive.  The trends are encouraging for snow lovers this evening though across all fronts.  The snowier models are giving this low pressure system time to develop and amplify off the NJ/LI coasts, so this will only contribute to a widening snow band that reaches across much of SNE.