FINAL CALL: NYE Snow Blitz

FINAL CALL (12/30/08 @ 7PM): I am making my final call on this one tonight. This storm looks mighty explosive once it gets south of Long Island and gets its toes wet in that December bathwater off our coastline (Lower 40s). This storm is going to explode all the while and be bombing out near ACK (Nantucket) going sub 980 in a short 3 hour time frame. This will allow for winds to crank in excess of 50 mph, if not higher gusts. There could be 2-3 hours of blizzard conditions on the South Shore and Cape later tomorrow afternoon and evening as this thing gets going SE of NE. A good analog for this one may be December 9th of 2005. If you remember that one, a low pressure took a similar path this one will take and bombed out near Newport, RI, giving the Cape 100 mph wind gusts. A 105 mph wind gust was reported on Block Island that day. That was accompanied with a nice CCB band of snow (backlash) that dumped snow at the rate of 2-4"+ per hour! I am not saying this will happen, but there sure are signs that at some point tomorrow afternoon around 1PM or so, snowfall rates could be exceeding 2"/hr. with winds gusting over 30 mph here in eastern Mass, creating near blizzard conditions. I have two bullseye areas for the heaviest of snow. One is for the BOS metro area where I think a solid 7-12" of snow will fall. Lower if we do not get those intense snow bands move in, but higher if we do. Down on the Cape is where I think true blizzard warning criteria snows/winds could occur along with the heaviest of snow. Right now, it would not shock me if some on the Cape came in will over 10" of snow, not fluffy snow as in BOS, but heavy wet snow that will cake onto most everything and likely cause some power outages, along with winds of 55+mph. We will have to see and NOWCAST this storm as it unfolds to see if we do indeed get that bombing right off our shorelines. If we do, WATCH OUT! It will be BRIEFLY INTENSE with near blizzard conditions and white outs all across SNE, eastern SNE especially. Keep atuned to the forecast tonight before bed. Start time on the snow is around 8AM for eastern zones, more like 6AM west of ORH. Enjoy the evening.

New Year's Eve Snowstorm

FIRST CALL (12/29/08 @ 4PM) Well, what looked like a clipper bringing a light 1-4" across much of central and northern New England just a day ago, now looks to be something much more important. The computer models are now showing this storm getting its act together in a big way for New Year's Eve day just south of Long Island. We could have a low undergoing 'bombogeneisis' in the afternoon on Wednesday as many are thinking of heading into the city for First Night Festivities. It could be a big mess. Right now this thing looks to start sometime after the morning drive into work if you're going to work. This is my very preliminary snowfall forecast which is a regionwide 3-6" for much of SNE. I am thinking that eastern areas, including just east of Worcester towards Boston, Plymouth, and the Cape will get the best of the storm as it deeply intensifies off the Cape later Wednesday. This should provide for an intense period of snowfall for these areas and high snowfall rates with light fluffy snow and temperatures falling through the teens to perhaps single digits by the stroke of midnight. It is going to be a frigid first night this year, so bundle up and bring the snow pants if your are courageous enough to brave the elements. Further north in ski country, more removed from the storm, a light 1-3", more likely on the lower end of the spectrum, will fall. This looks to be a SNE event, a quick hitting high impact event too. It should provide advisories to be hoisted for much of SNE and parts of CNE, if not winter storm warnings for eastern areas of SNE, including Boston and the Cape. I will have more on this tomorrow as tonight's and tomorrow's computer models are digested. Keep in touch.

Record Highs Tomorrow (63F BOS)

Strong SW winds and a sunny break or two will allow for temperatures to skyrocket tomorrow. Some places could see temperatures approach 70F if we see an hour or two of extended sunshine, but I do not think that will be the case. Instead, many places will average highs in the low to middle 60s, but a few areas like KBED, NOR, KTAN, etc. may see highs that reach into the upper 60s. Tomorrow record highs are within reach for many cities. Boston's record high for the 28th of December is 63 degrees, KORH is only 60 degrees. I think both cities have an above average shot at breaking these daily high records. We do cool off going into Monday and Tuesday, but only in the mid 40s on Monday and near 40 degrees on Tuesday. We have a clipper threat on Wednesday, but most of our guidance takes the brunt of the snow north of Concord, NH. North of there, a good 2-4" or 3-6" may fall. If this system were to travel south of BDL-PVD-PLY, then metro BOS would be looking for a 2-4" snowfall, but right now, a few snow showers looks all that we will be able to muster given the current pattern. Thereafter, it cools down some more on Thursday that may set the stage for a healthy storm sometime next weekend. That's all for now. Enjoy the your springlike Sunday.

Frosty gets Nuked on Sunday

Good afternoon all. Yesterday I did a post about the long range storm probabilities for early January. That storm still looks like a legitimate threat (Jan 2-5th timeframe). But looking closer in the short range we have got ourselves an amazingly warm day upcoming this Sunday. First we get through tomorrow's transition day with rain showers and raw temperatures in the 40s, but lows overnight Saturday will stay in the 40s, which will be a nice launching pad for Sunday's 'heat.' Right now it looks like 60F is a guarentee away from the water on Sunday even if the skies remained overcast with early showers ending in the morning, but now it looks like we may break out into some sunshine by late morning and early afternoon. This will allow temperatures to skyrocket on Sunday well into the 60s even with a healthy 6-12" snowpack in much of SNE away from the Cape and South Coast. All of that snow will likely melt on Sunday to just a few snow banks by early Monday morning and we will continue the melting process on Monday and Tuesday before it starts to cool down again later next week, setting up storm possibilities for the New Year. Enjoy the warmth, it could rival December 15th warmth when temperatures regionwide in SNE got into the mid 60s. May someone hit 70F on Sunday? I wouldn't bet on it with a deep snow cover still, but mid 60s to upper 60s are a real possibility. Get out there and enjoy it in between football games. (Pats/Bills @ 4)

Rumblings of an Early January Major Storm...

Merry Christmas to all those who celebrate it out there today. Happy Hanukkuah as well. Well, I am moving away from the short range this afternoon and gearing more towards the long range as the next 5-7 days look rather quiet, but warm on Sunday with a few showers and temperatures near 60 degrees. Now, in regards to this storm threat, it looks like all the teleconnections out there are aligning towards a potentially major widespread event along the eastern seaboard sometime in the beginning of the New Year. Later next week, the NAO will be tanking as well as the AO. These are two ingredients that we must attain in achieving a major east coast winter storm. Now, I have the upper air map from the GFS for around hour 200. This would put us roughly to the January 3rd timeframe. In red, I outlined the intense blocking over Greenland. This is vital to keep a storm from leaving the coast and jetting past Newfoundland. This allows storms to 'stall' along the coast as we see with our larger winter storms like in February 2003 and February 2006. Starred in red is the 50/50 low, but is not in the most ideal location as well. To be in the most ideal location, you would want to see it off the coast of Newfoundland as marked with the black 'x.' The only caveat to a major east coast winter storm is highlighted in the Pacific. If you look at that arrow in blue I drew, it shows how fast the flow is into the Pac NW. This pounding jetstream into the Pac NW will like to speed storms across the country and it makes it harder for a storm to develop along the coast and ride the coast delivering snows from DC to Boston. We need more of a ridge in the western third of the country to make this setup just right. There are indications on a few of the ensembles that a +PNA will develop. Right now I would say that the chances of a big east coast storm are above average for the Jan 2-Jan 7 timeframe and we may just do it. Many of our LR computer models (GFS, EURO..) are in good agreement about a storm and the most important thing is the blocking. If we get the blocking, there will most certainly have to be something that jumps off the coast and can only move up the coast because of the flow. Storms that are forced to sit off the coast will explode and this is how we get our big winter storms. This is a pattern that we have not seen since Feb '06. We may wipe the slate clean regarding snowcover in SNE later this weekend with temperatures in the 50s/60s, but we may replenish it sooner rather than later.

One Out, Another In...

FIRST CALL (12/20/08 @ 9AM): Good morning to everyone out there in SNE. We have a little bit of shoveling to do this morning. We are now under ocean effect snows in eastern Mass that extends out to past Worcester and NE CT. Many areas did very well last night, with generally between 8-10" with a few 12" reports here and there. Peabody, MA got 12" by 11PM last night. In my backyard, I got about 9". Boston's Logan Airport got 10.5", bringing them to over 13-14" for the month and the year. More snow is here today with the OES. Many areas in eastern SNE could pick up another coating to an inch, but areas inside 128, near Boston and especially on the South Shore may pick up another 2-5" of fluffy snow today, believe it or not, so that will undoubtedly bring many areas over 12" for the storm.

Now we turn to our next storm for tomorrow. The snow begins sometime between 5-8AM from south to north. It will start as all snow for everyone, even the Cape, before an abrupt changeover to rain there where there will be little or no accumulation. It will take longer to changeover on the South Shore, but an inch or two of slush cannot be ruled out before a transition to sleet then rain. Boston will changeover as well before getting anywhere between 3-6". If the winds come from the SE quickly, then I could see Boston just getting an inch or two before the switch. NW of Boston in its immediate NW suburbs may get 4" to as much as 7" of wet snowfall before ending due to dryslot or changing over for a brief time. Outside of 128, this will be all snow and a healthy storm at that. Expect a general area of 5-10", likely many 6-7" reports. The Whites into ME will do the best with many locales likely coming over a foot for the storm with near blizzard conditions expected.

Going to the Pats game? Good luck. The ride down to Gillette will feature snow covered roads if you are coming down from the north. It should snow there until about 11AM - 1PM before a changeover. This may be a situation where CBS shows what it looked like early this morning with heavy snow falling, but the game starts with good visibility and light to moderate rain. There is an outside shot that it stays mostly snow this far removed from the storm's center which will pass from south of Long Island to over the Cape Cod Canal. Foxboro will get a few inches of snow out of this tomorrow.

That's all for now. Enjoy the snow today and this OES today should be light enough that you should be able to get Christmas shopping done today, so head out to the stores and spend wisely.

FINAL CALL: Dec 13th 2007 Redux?

UPDATED FINAL CALL (12/19/08 @ 8AM): I had to do it. I was looking over the models last night and they still seem to be printing out more QPF than originally thought, so I knew I'd push that 10"+ a bit further north, but I now have that into the southern NH area. SNH looks to receive the lower ends of the 10-15" call, but I would bet that in and around Boston, 12" will be a common number. Someone either on the North Shore (Beverly, Peabody, Danvers) or the interior South Shore (Brockton, Mansfield, Foxboro) will pick up more than the widespread 12" and pick up closer to 14-15" of snow. Some places could even pick up a little bit more. Winds are calm this morning, but will increase this afternoon once this storm gets cranking and that is why you see a red area outlined along the North Shore and South Shore to the Cape where NE winds will range from 20-30 mph sustained later this evening with gusts frequently over 35mph. Combined with the heavy snow lasting until between 9-11PM, blizzard conditions could be realized in these areas. It is an outside possibility as the NWS was contemplating putting up Blizzard Warnings for eastern Essex, Plymouth and Barnstable Counties, but decided not to hoist them. Either way, its going to be windy, snowy, and cold. One thing I left out yesterday was that the wind chills will be below zero tonight, so you may want to postpone any shoveling until tomorrow afternoon. Tomorrow will feature light snow most of the day, especially in eastern Mass and an additional 1-3" cannot be ruled out to what we pick up today/tonight. Then we get to the Sunday storm. This one could be an all out blizzard in ski country this time as SNE will likely change to rain during the course of this one. Northwest of 495 and north of Route 2 in Mass, however, it looks to stay mainly snow. A preliminary guess would put them in the 6-12" range. Closer to Boston, a few inches cannot be ruled out before the change to rain. I will post my first call on that one later today. You ready? It's going to be a fun weekend in SNE. Be safe, but have fun.

FINAL CALL (12/18/08 @ 11AM): We have got ourselves a major winter storm coming to our area for tomorrow. The winter storm watches will soon be upgraded to warnings and the plows will be seen in large numbers tonight before the storm. This storm is eriely similar to the December 13th storm of last year. Remember that one? It's going to be a wall of snow that comes into our area. The snow will start light, but within a half hour, it will be coming down at a moderate to heavy rate. Last year it took 5 minutes from commencement to heavy. This one will be very similar. Okay, lets do it. I've got my final call up and lets get through all the dirty details.

Starting time: 9AM to 11AM in BOS
Snowfall Rates: 1-2"/hr during peak
Heaviest Snowfall: 12NOON - 7PM
Accumulations: Heaviest along and south of the Mass Pike, warning grade snows up to Concord, NH

Another interesting note is that there will be ocean effect snow Friday night keeping areas along the North Shore, South Shore and Cape in the snow through Saturday morning. There could be some intense snow bands that come off the water and could give an additional 2-4" of snow after the main batch of 7-10"+. Snow showers and flurries will stick in SNE through Saturday until early Sunday morning when the next storm moves in with its initial bout of heavy snow. The snow on Sunday should start mid morning. There is a Pats game at 1PM against the Arizona Cardinals, so that should be fun to watch on tv. I think it should stay snow until about the 3rd or 4th quarter before any changeover to sleet/rain is thought about. I think W and N of Route 495, this will stay mainly snow for you and another 6"+ is within the realm of possibilities. Let's get through tomorrow first.

FIRST CALL: Friday 12/19 Snowstorm

FIRST CALL (12/17/08 @ 1PM): We get one storm done with and the next one is on its heels. Recapping this mornings snow/ice, many areas north of the Pike picked up between 2-3" of snow with a glaze of freezing drizzle on top of that. Groveland, MA picked up 4" being the jackpot. The freezing drizzle will taper later this afternoon and temperatures will hold steady in the lower 30s.

Now looking towards this one, it looks like a biggie. It will come out of the lower Great Lakes and travel south of Long Island. It will not be an intense low pressure, but it will be moisture packed and with cold temperatures, much of SNE will have very high 15:1 or 20:1 ratios, which will really add to the snowfall totals. In my first call above, I may actually be playing this storm down with a 6-12"+ call. Some areas by the looks of it this afternoon could wind up with between 12-18" of snowfall, especially in northern CT, NW RI. I will make my final call tomorrow morning/afternoon and will upgrade, or downgrade as necessary. That is all I have to say about this storm. It starts sometime during the morning on Friday and lasts until about 8PM with its heaviest snows, but light snows should continue through Saturday morning and the Cape could wind up with a couple additional inches Friday night and Saturday with ocean enhancement turning to OES. I will go out on a limb and say that is not at all impossible for someone to come in just shy of 20" with this one! Have a good day.

Stormy Times Set In

I thought I would do a brief post this afternoon about the prospects of a very stormy and snowy time upcoming for SNE starting tonight. Snow is expected to develop late tonight after midnight and if you want to get the full details and amounts on this storm, just look down one post with a detailed map and main points about the storm in the blog post. After tomorrow's light bout with snow, we will have another storm come in after a break in the action of Thursday. Friday's storm looks to be rather important as snow will streak in from the Great Lakes and instead of turning into a Great Lakes Cutter, the low pressure will be forced south of SNE as an Arctic high pressure stands its ground. Right now it looks like this has the potential to dump a solid 6"+ regionwide on Friday. It would be a quick hitting intense snow storm, with mixing issues south of BDL-PVD-PLY. North of here, there could very well be 6"++ of snow on Friday. That leads us to a break on Saturday before another bout of snow on Sunday. We are going to take it one at a time, but it looks like Boston's prospects of a white Christmas are nearly at 100% this year.

UPDATED TO FINAL CALL: Dec 17th Snow/Ice

FINAL CALL (12/16/08): Well, I hope you enjoyed your mid 60s today as we are going to be heading deep into winter in the next few days. There are three legitamite threats for snow in SNE during the course of the next seven days! The one I am going to talk about is the Wednesday morning commute snowfall potential. To give a little lead up to the storm, tonight a band of shower will push through the area as a frontal passage. Any leftover showers by tomorrow morning will leave a few snow showers about the area, especially south of the Pike, but do not expect any accumulation with these. The afternoon features a lull in the action before snow redevelops from south to north tomorrow night late into early Wednesday morning. It only looks like a short 6-8 hour period of snowfall for SNE, longer in CNE where snow amounts reflect this. Overall, the South Coast and Cape will have mainly rain, while areas along the Pike into BOS pick up a mix of sleet and snow turning to light rain later Wednesday afternoon for 1-2", maybe a spot 3" amount in the pink shading. N&W of here we will have a solid 2-4" event, just west of Route 128 and I-95. This could prompt an Advisory level event for many in the blue area, with the highest amounts of snow in the Lakes Region, where spot 5" amounts are possible.

TIMING: Early WED AM - Early WED PM, tapers from W to ENE.
DURATION: Short; likely only 6-8 hours max
DELAYS: Possible WED AM N&W of BOS, more likely 128 N&W
ROAD CONDITIONS: Wet SE, Slick NW

So, that is all for now. I am becoming pretty confident about this forecast and will upgrade this one to either my final call later tomorrow or if I need to make any changes after tonight's model runs, I will do so tomorrow. Enjoy the last few hours of mild December weather. It looks as if winter is finally going to make it into SNE.

Snow & Ice Concerns this Week in SNE

We actually have the possibility of seeing some snowfall in SNE coming up tomorrow night and into Wednesday. The first threat of snow comes tomorrow as morning highs near 45 plummet into the lower 30s by the end of the afternoon towards evening. It looks like some areas may see their rain showers transition over to snow showers before the precipitation ends sometime tomorrow night. There could be a small accumulation south of the MA/NH border with tomorrow night’s light snow, but I wouldn’t go more than a skim coating at this point. Our next threat comes on Wednesday with another disturbance coming through. It looks like warm air may get involved in this one and change places south of the MA/NH border to rain/sleet and especially south of the Mass Pike. It looks like areas north of the Pike and west of Route 128 may actually pull out a 1-3” snowfall out of this one coming Wednesday morning lasting until the early afternoon hours on Wednesday. That will not be our only wintry type of threat this week as there will be another one on Friday. This one also looks to be a messy mix in SNE as warm air will get infiltrated into the storm as it heads toward BUF before redeveloping somewhere south of the Pike and moving either between PLY-BOS-POR. A further southerly track would yield more snow and ice north of the Pike as a track to POR would change a brief bit of snow over to all rain, even with the Arctic high over us in southern Quebec. Right now I would say that there is the threat for light accumulating snows north of the Pike with this one as well, likely changing to all rain S&E of Route 495, while turning to sleet and freezing rain in areas that do not need any more ice. This would not be a crippling historic icestorm like last Thursday’s, but it would be enough to create a mess on the roads. There is still plenty of time to iron out those details, so until then enjoy the 60+ degree weather we are experiencing this afternoon.

NOTE: I will be posting a snowfall map later this afternoon/evening regarding the snow/ice potential coming up for WED AM. Like I said, areas north of the Pike are fair game for a couple inches, while areas in southern and central VT/NH/ME may wind up with several inches.

Awful Pattern!

Well, if you like snow and cold, do not look at this thread. It is going to be downright April like come tomorrow with highs getting into the upper 50s to around 60 with clouds developing later in the afternoon. Then we will see rain shower develop from south to north on Tuesday. Some of these rain showers may bring a little sleet/freezing rain to areas north and west of 495 later Tuesday is what the areas hit hard by the ice storm Thursday night do not need. It does not look like a lot of ice, but enough to be a pain. Then a warm front goes through and we warm up for all rain here in SNE on Wednesday with any snow confined to NNE. We keep rain and showers and mild temperatures through until the end of the week when one final storm will cut north of the Great Lakes and bring in some mild air for all. Right now it looks like we could be pushing 50 with rain on Friday. There could be some low level cold air around because of a HP parked in northern Maine on Friday, so we could have areas north of the Pike stuck in the 30s with some ice confined to higher elevations. South of here, it could be pushing 60 degrees once again. Again, this is a miserable pattern for snow in SNE and it looks to continue.

Winter's One Day Return then Springtime

I am going to make a short post this evening and say that our rainstorm will finally come to an end tomorrow morning and early afternoon. Temperatures will be a dozen degrees warmer tomorrow with highs in the 40s. We have a one day bout of ARCTIC air on Saturday with highs around 20, staying in the teens west with lows in the single digits. We warm up on Sunday before a high moving off the EC pumps in the warm air on both Monday and Tuesday. Highs will be well into the 50s to around 60. Snow? Well parts of Louisiana to MS picked up 4-8" today, New Orleans got an inch, Boston will continue to wait. None for at least the next week.

Another Close Call for SNE

It seems like SNE cannot catch a break this winter season. It seems as if a storm will move too far out to sea or it will travel too far west to keep the cold air in for the duration of a storm system. Tomorrow we will have the latter. A storm will travel right over SNE and instead of todays mild rains in the 60s, we will have a very cold rain with highs likely staying in the 30s. Outside of Route 495, there will likely be some freezing rain that could prompt the NWS to issue Ice Storm Warnings for as far east as Worcester County. Some places may see ice accretions of greater than 0.5", which can do some serious damage. Closer to the coast, we will have a cold rain in the lower to middle 30s. If you want to find snow, you will have to travel very far north and west. Even where it is totally cold enough to snow, we will only have limited QPF in these regions, so snowfall to the tune of a few inches is all that looks possible. A few areas may wind up with closer to a half a foot or a little bit more, but they will be the exception rather than the rule. After this storm system which wraps up on Friday as a chilly rain in SNE, some snow in the mountains, we will return to seasonably cold weather with highs in the mid to upper 30s for Saturday and Sunday before we warm up well into the 40s to near 50 for most of next week it appears. Any snow chances look to remain outside the 10-14 day time period, so this winter is dragging its legs in getting started once again here in SNE. For many areas, it has been nearly 10 months since we have seen a snowfall of 3"+. It looks like that streak will continue some more. Sadly, if January forecasts turn out to be right, we could be getting close to one year without a storm delivering 3"+. It seems absurd, but the pattern just doesn't look like it wants to set up for snow in the East this year. Maybe March can pull us through, but by then, who really wants snow to begin with?

Lots of Rain This Week!

This week will feature two washout days. The first one is coming tomorrow. The temperatures tonight will actually spike after sunset and we will only have morning temperatures tomorrow morning in the mid 40s for lows. That will allow for afternoon temperatures to really skyrocket into the upper 50s to perhaps low 60s over southeastern Mass. Right now in regards to rainfall, I am thinking that many areas will come in just over one inch of liquid from this one before pushing out later tomorrow night. It will drag in some colder air for Thursday as highs will only manage the mid-upper 30s, but don't let that one day of cold fool you. The cold will be short lived as another storm will move west of our area and bring warm air all the way up to Maine once again. Right now it looks like Friday will be warmer than tomorrow and if you asked me last night what the forecast was for Friday I would have told you cold and heavy snow. Just goes to show how quick to change the computer models are this time of year. So, for now, I am going for low to mid 60s with heavy rain, amounting to two inches or more on Friday. I am thinking that the further NW you go, it will get colder, but I do not think that anyone sees snow out of this one here in SNE, maybe at the very onset we will see a brief period of snow/sleet, but it would all be washed away by such warm temperatures anway. That pushes through on Friday night and that leads us to a chilly but manageable weekend with highs in the mid 30s on Saturday warming to around 40 degrees on Sunday. In the long range, next week looks to be mighty mild with some sunshine this time. I am going for afternoon highs to soar well into the 40s with some sunshine Monday next week and we may squeak out some 50 degree readings or better by midweek next week. So far, this winter has been pretty tame.

Clipper Storm Brings Light Snows to SNE

Good Saturday morning to all. We have a clipper storm that is pushing through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley this morning and will be developing a secondary off the northern NC coast, but will move too far out to sea to deliver a knock out punch to SNE. It will however, bring an inverted trough into the area that will set off some snow showers and periods of light to occaisionally moderate snowfall starting very late tonight and early tomorrow. It brings in enough snow to whiten the ground and cause some slick driving in spots. The first snows will start when temperatures are in the upper 20s in SE MA, and mid 20s in NE MA. So you can expect the snow to start sticking the roads, so be careful if you are out driving way late tonight and early tomorrow morning, between 3-5AM. The snow will be heaviest in the morning hours, if you want to call snow falling with visibilities ranging between 1-3 miles, occaisionally coming under 1 mile. Overall, on the South Shore, excluding the Cape, expect about a slushy inch when all said and done. Futher north in towards the 128 belt out to Worcester, expect a good 1-2", but there may be a spot 3" amount in northern Essex county and SE NH. The heaviest of the snow will fall in Downeast Maine, where they will get a more matured storm and this will deliver a healthy 3-6", but a few places especially near the tip of Downeast Maine may see a spot 6"+ amount. I wouldn't be surprised to see a local 8" or 9" amount up there. Then into Canada, they will get slammed with 1-2', blizzard conditions. That's all for now. I will try and come up with a five day later on this afternoon/evening. Have a good day.

"It's a Clipper Skipper!"

Good evening everybody. I am writing this post tonight with the news that snow is back in the forecast for real, for SNE. We have been watching this threat of a clipper redeveloping, alla Miller B, for Sunday. Well, after on and off again model runs yesterday, all things are starting to align for at least a light to moderate snow event for much of eastern LI and SNE, heading into ME for the end of this weekend. Above, I have posted a printout of what the 18z GFS ensembles were showing. They are much more robust and dig the H5 pattern much more so than the OP 18z GFS run. That is a red flag in our business for the OP runs to start shifting west, which is good for more QPF and snow in our backyards. The other computer model we look at religiously is the EURO. This computer model has been showing a pretty good to solid SNE hit for the past few runs since yesterday. It is looking more and more likely like our forecasts will start turning much snowier come 11PM tonight, if not by 12 NOON tomorrow for our Sunday storm. It is still a little far away to peg snowfall amounts, but preliminary amounts would throw a few inches of snow for much of SNE into Downeast Maine. A few inches can mean anything above 2" and less than 6". We will have to watch and see if the trend stays our friend tonight at 00z on both the GFS and the EURO and I do not see why it would not. We are starting to enter the EURO's hammertime range and its been locking this storm in since the get go. We just need the GFS to jump on board (QPF wise) as it started with the placement of the H5 low at 18z. Now we just need it to go fully come 00z tonight. With the EURO, we just need it to stay status quo and by Friday afternoon, this site will be throwing up snow maps for snowfall that will actually fall in our backyards and not 500 miles away.

Welcome to December!

Welcome to meteorlogical winter folks. You wouldn't know it by the temperatures out there this afternoon. Highs across much of SNE this afternoon are in the upper 50s to low 60s with abundant sunshine. The mild weather is going to stick around for the next few days, but we will not be as warm we are today. How about upper 40s to around 50 degrees with sunshine both tomorrow and Wednesday. Then we notch up those temperatures some more on Thursday with highs getting back into the mid 50s, but the tradeoff will be some rainfall. I am not expecting a washout Thursday by any means, but there may be a few scattered light rain showers later in the afternoon and evening here in SNE. These showers will usher in some real cold air for later in the week. By Friday we will only have highs in the mid 30s and by Saturday we will be struggling to get out of the upper 20s for highs in Worcester, and struggling to reach 32 degrees in the city of Boston. Snow chances still look minimal, but yesterday many of us saw the first flakes so we do not need to worry about being shut out going into the first and second weeks of December.

So what can we expect during the month of December? The average December brings Boston an average of 6.6" of snowfall. Last winter Boston nearly broke the December snowfall record with 26.9" of snow for the month of December alone. You do not need to go back too far to see a rather unimpressive December as in 2006, Boston only recorded a measely 0.4" of snow. In '98 and '99, Boston did not even record more than a trace of snow. Most winters will feature snowfall in the 4-7" range. Boston's NW suburbs do better, likely 6-10" on average. Temperatures average in the mid 40s early on in the month, dropping into the mid 30s by the end of the month. This December looks to be colder than normal (-3 to -5 dept) with equal chances of precipitation. Overall, I think Boston will see average snowfall for this month, but all it takes it one good storm and we are well above normal. That is why long range snowfall forecasting is so unprofessional, in my opinion. That's all for now. Enjoy the April like weather we have this afternoon.