FINAL CALL: NYE Snow Blitz

FINAL CALL (12/30/08 @ 7PM): I am making my final call on this one tonight. This storm looks mighty explosive once it gets south of Long Island and gets its toes wet in that December bathwater off our coastline (Lower 40s). This storm is going to explode all the while and be bombing out near ACK (Nantucket) going sub 980 in a short 3 hour time frame. This will allow for winds to crank in excess of 50 mph, if not higher gusts. There could be 2-3 hours of blizzard conditions on the South Shore and Cape later tomorrow afternoon and evening as this thing gets going SE of NE. A good analog for this one may be December 9th of 2005. If you remember that one, a low pressure took a similar path this one will take and bombed out near Newport, RI, giving the Cape 100 mph wind gusts. A 105 mph wind gust was reported on Block Island that day. That was accompanied with a nice CCB band of snow (backlash) that dumped snow at the rate of 2-4"+ per hour! I am not saying this will happen, but there sure are signs that at some point tomorrow afternoon around 1PM or so, snowfall rates could be exceeding 2"/hr. with winds gusting over 30 mph here in eastern Mass, creating near blizzard conditions. I have two bullseye areas for the heaviest of snow. One is for the BOS metro area where I think a solid 7-12" of snow will fall. Lower if we do not get those intense snow bands move in, but higher if we do. Down on the Cape is where I think true blizzard warning criteria snows/winds could occur along with the heaviest of snow. Right now, it would not shock me if some on the Cape came in will over 10" of snow, not fluffy snow as in BOS, but heavy wet snow that will cake onto most everything and likely cause some power outages, along with winds of 55+mph. We will have to see and NOWCAST this storm as it unfolds to see if we do indeed get that bombing right off our shorelines. If we do, WATCH OUT! It will be BRIEFLY INTENSE with near blizzard conditions and white outs all across SNE, eastern SNE especially. Keep atuned to the forecast tonight before bed. Start time on the snow is around 8AM for eastern zones, more like 6AM west of ORH. Enjoy the evening.

New Year's Eve Snowstorm

FIRST CALL (12/29/08 @ 4PM) Well, what looked like a clipper bringing a light 1-4" across much of central and northern New England just a day ago, now looks to be something much more important. The computer models are now showing this storm getting its act together in a big way for New Year's Eve day just south of Long Island. We could have a low undergoing 'bombogeneisis' in the afternoon on Wednesday as many are thinking of heading into the city for First Night Festivities. It could be a big mess. Right now this thing looks to start sometime after the morning drive into work if you're going to work. This is my very preliminary snowfall forecast which is a regionwide 3-6" for much of SNE. I am thinking that eastern areas, including just east of Worcester towards Boston, Plymouth, and the Cape will get the best of the storm as it deeply intensifies off the Cape later Wednesday. This should provide for an intense period of snowfall for these areas and high snowfall rates with light fluffy snow and temperatures falling through the teens to perhaps single digits by the stroke of midnight. It is going to be a frigid first night this year, so bundle up and bring the snow pants if your are courageous enough to brave the elements. Further north in ski country, more removed from the storm, a light 1-3", more likely on the lower end of the spectrum, will fall. This looks to be a SNE event, a quick hitting high impact event too. It should provide advisories to be hoisted for much of SNE and parts of CNE, if not winter storm warnings for eastern areas of SNE, including Boston and the Cape. I will have more on this tomorrow as tonight's and tomorrow's computer models are digested. Keep in touch.

Record Highs Tomorrow (63F BOS)

Strong SW winds and a sunny break or two will allow for temperatures to skyrocket tomorrow. Some places could see temperatures approach 70F if we see an hour or two of extended sunshine, but I do not think that will be the case. Instead, many places will average highs in the low to middle 60s, but a few areas like KBED, NOR, KTAN, etc. may see highs that reach into the upper 60s. Tomorrow record highs are within reach for many cities. Boston's record high for the 28th of December is 63 degrees, KORH is only 60 degrees. I think both cities have an above average shot at breaking these daily high records. We do cool off going into Monday and Tuesday, but only in the mid 40s on Monday and near 40 degrees on Tuesday. We have a clipper threat on Wednesday, but most of our guidance takes the brunt of the snow north of Concord, NH. North of there, a good 2-4" or 3-6" may fall. If this system were to travel south of BDL-PVD-PLY, then metro BOS would be looking for a 2-4" snowfall, but right now, a few snow showers looks all that we will be able to muster given the current pattern. Thereafter, it cools down some more on Thursday that may set the stage for a healthy storm sometime next weekend. That's all for now. Enjoy the your springlike Sunday.

Frosty gets Nuked on Sunday

Good afternoon all. Yesterday I did a post about the long range storm probabilities for early January. That storm still looks like a legitimate threat (Jan 2-5th timeframe). But looking closer in the short range we have got ourselves an amazingly warm day upcoming this Sunday. First we get through tomorrow's transition day with rain showers and raw temperatures in the 40s, but lows overnight Saturday will stay in the 40s, which will be a nice launching pad for Sunday's 'heat.' Right now it looks like 60F is a guarentee away from the water on Sunday even if the skies remained overcast with early showers ending in the morning, but now it looks like we may break out into some sunshine by late morning and early afternoon. This will allow temperatures to skyrocket on Sunday well into the 60s even with a healthy 6-12" snowpack in much of SNE away from the Cape and South Coast. All of that snow will likely melt on Sunday to just a few snow banks by early Monday morning and we will continue the melting process on Monday and Tuesday before it starts to cool down again later next week, setting up storm possibilities for the New Year. Enjoy the warmth, it could rival December 15th warmth when temperatures regionwide in SNE got into the mid 60s. May someone hit 70F on Sunday? I wouldn't bet on it with a deep snow cover still, but mid 60s to upper 60s are a real possibility. Get out there and enjoy it in between football games. (Pats/Bills @ 4)

Rumblings of an Early January Major Storm...

Merry Christmas to all those who celebrate it out there today. Happy Hanukkuah as well. Well, I am moving away from the short range this afternoon and gearing more towards the long range as the next 5-7 days look rather quiet, but warm on Sunday with a few showers and temperatures near 60 degrees. Now, in regards to this storm threat, it looks like all the teleconnections out there are aligning towards a potentially major widespread event along the eastern seaboard sometime in the beginning of the New Year. Later next week, the NAO will be tanking as well as the AO. These are two ingredients that we must attain in achieving a major east coast winter storm. Now, I have the upper air map from the GFS for around hour 200. This would put us roughly to the January 3rd timeframe. In red, I outlined the intense blocking over Greenland. This is vital to keep a storm from leaving the coast and jetting past Newfoundland. This allows storms to 'stall' along the coast as we see with our larger winter storms like in February 2003 and February 2006. Starred in red is the 50/50 low, but is not in the most ideal location as well. To be in the most ideal location, you would want to see it off the coast of Newfoundland as marked with the black 'x.' The only caveat to a major east coast winter storm is highlighted in the Pacific. If you look at that arrow in blue I drew, it shows how fast the flow is into the Pac NW. This pounding jetstream into the Pac NW will like to speed storms across the country and it makes it harder for a storm to develop along the coast and ride the coast delivering snows from DC to Boston. We need more of a ridge in the western third of the country to make this setup just right. There are indications on a few of the ensembles that a +PNA will develop. Right now I would say that the chances of a big east coast storm are above average for the Jan 2-Jan 7 timeframe and we may just do it. Many of our LR computer models (GFS, EURO..) are in good agreement about a storm and the most important thing is the blocking. If we get the blocking, there will most certainly have to be something that jumps off the coast and can only move up the coast because of the flow. Storms that are forced to sit off the coast will explode and this is how we get our big winter storms. This is a pattern that we have not seen since Feb '06. We may wipe the slate clean regarding snowcover in SNE later this weekend with temperatures in the 50s/60s, but we may replenish it sooner rather than later.

One Out, Another In...

FIRST CALL (12/20/08 @ 9AM): Good morning to everyone out there in SNE. We have a little bit of shoveling to do this morning. We are now under ocean effect snows in eastern Mass that extends out to past Worcester and NE CT. Many areas did very well last night, with generally between 8-10" with a few 12" reports here and there. Peabody, MA got 12" by 11PM last night. In my backyard, I got about 9". Boston's Logan Airport got 10.5", bringing them to over 13-14" for the month and the year. More snow is here today with the OES. Many areas in eastern SNE could pick up another coating to an inch, but areas inside 128, near Boston and especially on the South Shore may pick up another 2-5" of fluffy snow today, believe it or not, so that will undoubtedly bring many areas over 12" for the storm.

Now we turn to our next storm for tomorrow. The snow begins sometime between 5-8AM from south to north. It will start as all snow for everyone, even the Cape, before an abrupt changeover to rain there where there will be little or no accumulation. It will take longer to changeover on the South Shore, but an inch or two of slush cannot be ruled out before a transition to sleet then rain. Boston will changeover as well before getting anywhere between 3-6". If the winds come from the SE quickly, then I could see Boston just getting an inch or two before the switch. NW of Boston in its immediate NW suburbs may get 4" to as much as 7" of wet snowfall before ending due to dryslot or changing over for a brief time. Outside of 128, this will be all snow and a healthy storm at that. Expect a general area of 5-10", likely many 6-7" reports. The Whites into ME will do the best with many locales likely coming over a foot for the storm with near blizzard conditions expected.

Going to the Pats game? Good luck. The ride down to Gillette will feature snow covered roads if you are coming down from the north. It should snow there until about 11AM - 1PM before a changeover. This may be a situation where CBS shows what it looked like early this morning with heavy snow falling, but the game starts with good visibility and light to moderate rain. There is an outside shot that it stays mostly snow this far removed from the storm's center which will pass from south of Long Island to over the Cape Cod Canal. Foxboro will get a few inches of snow out of this tomorrow.

That's all for now. Enjoy the snow today and this OES today should be light enough that you should be able to get Christmas shopping done today, so head out to the stores and spend wisely.

FINAL CALL: Dec 13th 2007 Redux?

UPDATED FINAL CALL (12/19/08 @ 8AM): I had to do it. I was looking over the models last night and they still seem to be printing out more QPF than originally thought, so I knew I'd push that 10"+ a bit further north, but I now have that into the southern NH area. SNH looks to receive the lower ends of the 10-15" call, but I would bet that in and around Boston, 12" will be a common number. Someone either on the North Shore (Beverly, Peabody, Danvers) or the interior South Shore (Brockton, Mansfield, Foxboro) will pick up more than the widespread 12" and pick up closer to 14-15" of snow. Some places could even pick up a little bit more. Winds are calm this morning, but will increase this afternoon once this storm gets cranking and that is why you see a red area outlined along the North Shore and South Shore to the Cape where NE winds will range from 20-30 mph sustained later this evening with gusts frequently over 35mph. Combined with the heavy snow lasting until between 9-11PM, blizzard conditions could be realized in these areas. It is an outside possibility as the NWS was contemplating putting up Blizzard Warnings for eastern Essex, Plymouth and Barnstable Counties, but decided not to hoist them. Either way, its going to be windy, snowy, and cold. One thing I left out yesterday was that the wind chills will be below zero tonight, so you may want to postpone any shoveling until tomorrow afternoon. Tomorrow will feature light snow most of the day, especially in eastern Mass and an additional 1-3" cannot be ruled out to what we pick up today/tonight. Then we get to the Sunday storm. This one could be an all out blizzard in ski country this time as SNE will likely change to rain during the course of this one. Northwest of 495 and north of Route 2 in Mass, however, it looks to stay mainly snow. A preliminary guess would put them in the 6-12" range. Closer to Boston, a few inches cannot be ruled out before the change to rain. I will post my first call on that one later today. You ready? It's going to be a fun weekend in SNE. Be safe, but have fun.

FINAL CALL (12/18/08 @ 11AM): We have got ourselves a major winter storm coming to our area for tomorrow. The winter storm watches will soon be upgraded to warnings and the plows will be seen in large numbers tonight before the storm. This storm is eriely similar to the December 13th storm of last year. Remember that one? It's going to be a wall of snow that comes into our area. The snow will start light, but within a half hour, it will be coming down at a moderate to heavy rate. Last year it took 5 minutes from commencement to heavy. This one will be very similar. Okay, lets do it. I've got my final call up and lets get through all the dirty details.

Starting time: 9AM to 11AM in BOS
Snowfall Rates: 1-2"/hr during peak
Heaviest Snowfall: 12NOON - 7PM
Accumulations: Heaviest along and south of the Mass Pike, warning grade snows up to Concord, NH

Another interesting note is that there will be ocean effect snow Friday night keeping areas along the North Shore, South Shore and Cape in the snow through Saturday morning. There could be some intense snow bands that come off the water and could give an additional 2-4" of snow after the main batch of 7-10"+. Snow showers and flurries will stick in SNE through Saturday until early Sunday morning when the next storm moves in with its initial bout of heavy snow. The snow on Sunday should start mid morning. There is a Pats game at 1PM against the Arizona Cardinals, so that should be fun to watch on tv. I think it should stay snow until about the 3rd or 4th quarter before any changeover to sleet/rain is thought about. I think W and N of Route 495, this will stay mainly snow for you and another 6"+ is within the realm of possibilities. Let's get through tomorrow first.

FIRST CALL: Friday 12/19 Snowstorm

FIRST CALL (12/17/08 @ 1PM): We get one storm done with and the next one is on its heels. Recapping this mornings snow/ice, many areas north of the Pike picked up between 2-3" of snow with a glaze of freezing drizzle on top of that. Groveland, MA picked up 4" being the jackpot. The freezing drizzle will taper later this afternoon and temperatures will hold steady in the lower 30s.

Now looking towards this one, it looks like a biggie. It will come out of the lower Great Lakes and travel south of Long Island. It will not be an intense low pressure, but it will be moisture packed and with cold temperatures, much of SNE will have very high 15:1 or 20:1 ratios, which will really add to the snowfall totals. In my first call above, I may actually be playing this storm down with a 6-12"+ call. Some areas by the looks of it this afternoon could wind up with between 12-18" of snowfall, especially in northern CT, NW RI. I will make my final call tomorrow morning/afternoon and will upgrade, or downgrade as necessary. That is all I have to say about this storm. It starts sometime during the morning on Friday and lasts until about 8PM with its heaviest snows, but light snows should continue through Saturday morning and the Cape could wind up with a couple additional inches Friday night and Saturday with ocean enhancement turning to OES. I will go out on a limb and say that is not at all impossible for someone to come in just shy of 20" with this one! Have a good day.

Stormy Times Set In

I thought I would do a brief post this afternoon about the prospects of a very stormy and snowy time upcoming for SNE starting tonight. Snow is expected to develop late tonight after midnight and if you want to get the full details and amounts on this storm, just look down one post with a detailed map and main points about the storm in the blog post. After tomorrow's light bout with snow, we will have another storm come in after a break in the action of Thursday. Friday's storm looks to be rather important as snow will streak in from the Great Lakes and instead of turning into a Great Lakes Cutter, the low pressure will be forced south of SNE as an Arctic high pressure stands its ground. Right now it looks like this has the potential to dump a solid 6"+ regionwide on Friday. It would be a quick hitting intense snow storm, with mixing issues south of BDL-PVD-PLY. North of here, there could very well be 6"++ of snow on Friday. That leads us to a break on Saturday before another bout of snow on Sunday. We are going to take it one at a time, but it looks like Boston's prospects of a white Christmas are nearly at 100% this year.

UPDATED TO FINAL CALL: Dec 17th Snow/Ice

FINAL CALL (12/16/08): Well, I hope you enjoyed your mid 60s today as we are going to be heading deep into winter in the next few days. There are three legitamite threats for snow in SNE during the course of the next seven days! The one I am going to talk about is the Wednesday morning commute snowfall potential. To give a little lead up to the storm, tonight a band of shower will push through the area as a frontal passage. Any leftover showers by tomorrow morning will leave a few snow showers about the area, especially south of the Pike, but do not expect any accumulation with these. The afternoon features a lull in the action before snow redevelops from south to north tomorrow night late into early Wednesday morning. It only looks like a short 6-8 hour period of snowfall for SNE, longer in CNE where snow amounts reflect this. Overall, the South Coast and Cape will have mainly rain, while areas along the Pike into BOS pick up a mix of sleet and snow turning to light rain later Wednesday afternoon for 1-2", maybe a spot 3" amount in the pink shading. N&W of here we will have a solid 2-4" event, just west of Route 128 and I-95. This could prompt an Advisory level event for many in the blue area, with the highest amounts of snow in the Lakes Region, where spot 5" amounts are possible.

TIMING: Early WED AM - Early WED PM, tapers from W to ENE.
DURATION: Short; likely only 6-8 hours max
DELAYS: Possible WED AM N&W of BOS, more likely 128 N&W
ROAD CONDITIONS: Wet SE, Slick NW

So, that is all for now. I am becoming pretty confident about this forecast and will upgrade this one to either my final call later tomorrow or if I need to make any changes after tonight's model runs, I will do so tomorrow. Enjoy the last few hours of mild December weather. It looks as if winter is finally going to make it into SNE.

Snow & Ice Concerns this Week in SNE

We actually have the possibility of seeing some snowfall in SNE coming up tomorrow night and into Wednesday. The first threat of snow comes tomorrow as morning highs near 45 plummet into the lower 30s by the end of the afternoon towards evening. It looks like some areas may see their rain showers transition over to snow showers before the precipitation ends sometime tomorrow night. There could be a small accumulation south of the MA/NH border with tomorrow night’s light snow, but I wouldn’t go more than a skim coating at this point. Our next threat comes on Wednesday with another disturbance coming through. It looks like warm air may get involved in this one and change places south of the MA/NH border to rain/sleet and especially south of the Mass Pike. It looks like areas north of the Pike and west of Route 128 may actually pull out a 1-3” snowfall out of this one coming Wednesday morning lasting until the early afternoon hours on Wednesday. That will not be our only wintry type of threat this week as there will be another one on Friday. This one also looks to be a messy mix in SNE as warm air will get infiltrated into the storm as it heads toward BUF before redeveloping somewhere south of the Pike and moving either between PLY-BOS-POR. A further southerly track would yield more snow and ice north of the Pike as a track to POR would change a brief bit of snow over to all rain, even with the Arctic high over us in southern Quebec. Right now I would say that there is the threat for light accumulating snows north of the Pike with this one as well, likely changing to all rain S&E of Route 495, while turning to sleet and freezing rain in areas that do not need any more ice. This would not be a crippling historic icestorm like last Thursday’s, but it would be enough to create a mess on the roads. There is still plenty of time to iron out those details, so until then enjoy the 60+ degree weather we are experiencing this afternoon.

NOTE: I will be posting a snowfall map later this afternoon/evening regarding the snow/ice potential coming up for WED AM. Like I said, areas north of the Pike are fair game for a couple inches, while areas in southern and central VT/NH/ME may wind up with several inches.

Awful Pattern!

Well, if you like snow and cold, do not look at this thread. It is going to be downright April like come tomorrow with highs getting into the upper 50s to around 60 with clouds developing later in the afternoon. Then we will see rain shower develop from south to north on Tuesday. Some of these rain showers may bring a little sleet/freezing rain to areas north and west of 495 later Tuesday is what the areas hit hard by the ice storm Thursday night do not need. It does not look like a lot of ice, but enough to be a pain. Then a warm front goes through and we warm up for all rain here in SNE on Wednesday with any snow confined to NNE. We keep rain and showers and mild temperatures through until the end of the week when one final storm will cut north of the Great Lakes and bring in some mild air for all. Right now it looks like we could be pushing 50 with rain on Friday. There could be some low level cold air around because of a HP parked in northern Maine on Friday, so we could have areas north of the Pike stuck in the 30s with some ice confined to higher elevations. South of here, it could be pushing 60 degrees once again. Again, this is a miserable pattern for snow in SNE and it looks to continue.

Winter's One Day Return then Springtime

I am going to make a short post this evening and say that our rainstorm will finally come to an end tomorrow morning and early afternoon. Temperatures will be a dozen degrees warmer tomorrow with highs in the 40s. We have a one day bout of ARCTIC air on Saturday with highs around 20, staying in the teens west with lows in the single digits. We warm up on Sunday before a high moving off the EC pumps in the warm air on both Monday and Tuesday. Highs will be well into the 50s to around 60. Snow? Well parts of Louisiana to MS picked up 4-8" today, New Orleans got an inch, Boston will continue to wait. None for at least the next week.

Another Close Call for SNE

It seems like SNE cannot catch a break this winter season. It seems as if a storm will move too far out to sea or it will travel too far west to keep the cold air in for the duration of a storm system. Tomorrow we will have the latter. A storm will travel right over SNE and instead of todays mild rains in the 60s, we will have a very cold rain with highs likely staying in the 30s. Outside of Route 495, there will likely be some freezing rain that could prompt the NWS to issue Ice Storm Warnings for as far east as Worcester County. Some places may see ice accretions of greater than 0.5", which can do some serious damage. Closer to the coast, we will have a cold rain in the lower to middle 30s. If you want to find snow, you will have to travel very far north and west. Even where it is totally cold enough to snow, we will only have limited QPF in these regions, so snowfall to the tune of a few inches is all that looks possible. A few areas may wind up with closer to a half a foot or a little bit more, but they will be the exception rather than the rule. After this storm system which wraps up on Friday as a chilly rain in SNE, some snow in the mountains, we will return to seasonably cold weather with highs in the mid to upper 30s for Saturday and Sunday before we warm up well into the 40s to near 50 for most of next week it appears. Any snow chances look to remain outside the 10-14 day time period, so this winter is dragging its legs in getting started once again here in SNE. For many areas, it has been nearly 10 months since we have seen a snowfall of 3"+. It looks like that streak will continue some more. Sadly, if January forecasts turn out to be right, we could be getting close to one year without a storm delivering 3"+. It seems absurd, but the pattern just doesn't look like it wants to set up for snow in the East this year. Maybe March can pull us through, but by then, who really wants snow to begin with?

Lots of Rain This Week!

This week will feature two washout days. The first one is coming tomorrow. The temperatures tonight will actually spike after sunset and we will only have morning temperatures tomorrow morning in the mid 40s for lows. That will allow for afternoon temperatures to really skyrocket into the upper 50s to perhaps low 60s over southeastern Mass. Right now in regards to rainfall, I am thinking that many areas will come in just over one inch of liquid from this one before pushing out later tomorrow night. It will drag in some colder air for Thursday as highs will only manage the mid-upper 30s, but don't let that one day of cold fool you. The cold will be short lived as another storm will move west of our area and bring warm air all the way up to Maine once again. Right now it looks like Friday will be warmer than tomorrow and if you asked me last night what the forecast was for Friday I would have told you cold and heavy snow. Just goes to show how quick to change the computer models are this time of year. So, for now, I am going for low to mid 60s with heavy rain, amounting to two inches or more on Friday. I am thinking that the further NW you go, it will get colder, but I do not think that anyone sees snow out of this one here in SNE, maybe at the very onset we will see a brief period of snow/sleet, but it would all be washed away by such warm temperatures anway. That pushes through on Friday night and that leads us to a chilly but manageable weekend with highs in the mid 30s on Saturday warming to around 40 degrees on Sunday. In the long range, next week looks to be mighty mild with some sunshine this time. I am going for afternoon highs to soar well into the 40s with some sunshine Monday next week and we may squeak out some 50 degree readings or better by midweek next week. So far, this winter has been pretty tame.

Clipper Storm Brings Light Snows to SNE

Good Saturday morning to all. We have a clipper storm that is pushing through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley this morning and will be developing a secondary off the northern NC coast, but will move too far out to sea to deliver a knock out punch to SNE. It will however, bring an inverted trough into the area that will set off some snow showers and periods of light to occaisionally moderate snowfall starting very late tonight and early tomorrow. It brings in enough snow to whiten the ground and cause some slick driving in spots. The first snows will start when temperatures are in the upper 20s in SE MA, and mid 20s in NE MA. So you can expect the snow to start sticking the roads, so be careful if you are out driving way late tonight and early tomorrow morning, between 3-5AM. The snow will be heaviest in the morning hours, if you want to call snow falling with visibilities ranging between 1-3 miles, occaisionally coming under 1 mile. Overall, on the South Shore, excluding the Cape, expect about a slushy inch when all said and done. Futher north in towards the 128 belt out to Worcester, expect a good 1-2", but there may be a spot 3" amount in northern Essex county and SE NH. The heaviest of the snow will fall in Downeast Maine, where they will get a more matured storm and this will deliver a healthy 3-6", but a few places especially near the tip of Downeast Maine may see a spot 6"+ amount. I wouldn't be surprised to see a local 8" or 9" amount up there. Then into Canada, they will get slammed with 1-2', blizzard conditions. That's all for now. I will try and come up with a five day later on this afternoon/evening. Have a good day.

"It's a Clipper Skipper!"

Good evening everybody. I am writing this post tonight with the news that snow is back in the forecast for real, for SNE. We have been watching this threat of a clipper redeveloping, alla Miller B, for Sunday. Well, after on and off again model runs yesterday, all things are starting to align for at least a light to moderate snow event for much of eastern LI and SNE, heading into ME for the end of this weekend. Above, I have posted a printout of what the 18z GFS ensembles were showing. They are much more robust and dig the H5 pattern much more so than the OP 18z GFS run. That is a red flag in our business for the OP runs to start shifting west, which is good for more QPF and snow in our backyards. The other computer model we look at religiously is the EURO. This computer model has been showing a pretty good to solid SNE hit for the past few runs since yesterday. It is looking more and more likely like our forecasts will start turning much snowier come 11PM tonight, if not by 12 NOON tomorrow for our Sunday storm. It is still a little far away to peg snowfall amounts, but preliminary amounts would throw a few inches of snow for much of SNE into Downeast Maine. A few inches can mean anything above 2" and less than 6". We will have to watch and see if the trend stays our friend tonight at 00z on both the GFS and the EURO and I do not see why it would not. We are starting to enter the EURO's hammertime range and its been locking this storm in since the get go. We just need the GFS to jump on board (QPF wise) as it started with the placement of the H5 low at 18z. Now we just need it to go fully come 00z tonight. With the EURO, we just need it to stay status quo and by Friday afternoon, this site will be throwing up snow maps for snowfall that will actually fall in our backyards and not 500 miles away.

Welcome to December!

Welcome to meteorlogical winter folks. You wouldn't know it by the temperatures out there this afternoon. Highs across much of SNE this afternoon are in the upper 50s to low 60s with abundant sunshine. The mild weather is going to stick around for the next few days, but we will not be as warm we are today. How about upper 40s to around 50 degrees with sunshine both tomorrow and Wednesday. Then we notch up those temperatures some more on Thursday with highs getting back into the mid 50s, but the tradeoff will be some rainfall. I am not expecting a washout Thursday by any means, but there may be a few scattered light rain showers later in the afternoon and evening here in SNE. These showers will usher in some real cold air for later in the week. By Friday we will only have highs in the mid 30s and by Saturday we will be struggling to get out of the upper 20s for highs in Worcester, and struggling to reach 32 degrees in the city of Boston. Snow chances still look minimal, but yesterday many of us saw the first flakes so we do not need to worry about being shut out going into the first and second weeks of December.

So what can we expect during the month of December? The average December brings Boston an average of 6.6" of snowfall. Last winter Boston nearly broke the December snowfall record with 26.9" of snow for the month of December alone. You do not need to go back too far to see a rather unimpressive December as in 2006, Boston only recorded a measely 0.4" of snow. In '98 and '99, Boston did not even record more than a trace of snow. Most winters will feature snowfall in the 4-7" range. Boston's NW suburbs do better, likely 6-10" on average. Temperatures average in the mid 40s early on in the month, dropping into the mid 30s by the end of the month. This December looks to be colder than normal (-3 to -5 dept) with equal chances of precipitation. Overall, I think Boston will see average snowfall for this month, but all it takes it one good storm and we are well above normal. That is why long range snowfall forecasting is so unprofessional, in my opinion. That's all for now. Enjoy the April like weather we have this afternoon.

Snowfall Potential 11/30 to 12/1, Not for SNE

Another winter storm is taking shape this weekend and should deliver a healthy dose of wintery precipitation for a large portion of the country starting tomorrow. Snow will break out across Chicago to Detroit and up into Ontario all the while NNE will start as a brief period of snow (1-3") before changing over to a mix and eventually all rain. Here in SNE, we may have a few sleet pellets mixed in at the onset around 4PM tomorrow afternoon, but that will quickly go to rain and on Monday we will actually be quite warm with temperatures soaring into the lower to middle 50s. The snow will be confined well to our west and northwest. The big winners with this one look to be Chicago up through Lower Michigan and into southern Ontario. Here a good 3-6" of snowfall, with isolated amounts of 6"+ are possible, especially in Ontario. We will have to wait our turn here in SNE. Long range still looks pretty poor for snowfall potential, FWIW. It will happen eventually though.

Perfect Weather Day for Thanksgiving

Turkey Day still looks like a winner, weatherwise. Morning temperatures will be coming up through the 30s and then be around 40 for 10AM football games. Highs tomorrow afternoon should get into the mid 40s here in SNE, colder north. It should remain totally dry as well. That leads us into Black Friday and there will be no weather issues trying to get to the mall for good deals. You'll need a winter coat with temperatures in the 40s but it won't be brutally cold. Rain should hold off until after midnight as a few wet snow flakes may be mixed in north of Route 2 and in the Worcester hills and SW New Hampshire. We stay mild through the weekend, and then our attention turns toward another storm developing in the South and see how it interacts with a trough developing over the east and see exactly where this thing wants to track. Right now, I would favor an inland track with may the initial stages of the storm starting as a brief wintry mix here in SNE, but quickly turning over to rain and with a southerly flow we will get back to around 50 degrees during the peak, very much like the situtation yesterday. We will have to wait and see how that works out, but right now it looks like another SNE rainstorm. Areas North that saw snow yesterday could see another wet accumulating snow again before any changeover. It's still 4 days away so there is time to change, but this is trending towards another rain maker. Warm at that.

Thanksgiving Day Forecast 2008

Hello all. We are just a couple days away from Thanksgiving! This year has flown by. Christmas music has already taken over two Boston radio stations and we are only a few days away from the official start of the Holiday shopping season, Black Friday. It does not look like any weather problems are in store for Turkey day or even Travel Day tomorrow once we get through today's heavy rains and gusty winds. After our 1-3" of rainfall today, then it is clear sailing to the holiday. This Thanksgiving is going to feature seasonable temperatures for late November, not too cold nor too warm. Last Thanksgiving had temperatures in the 50s to around 60, but this one will feature temperatures mainly in the 40s. If you are heading to your local town's high school Thanksgiving Day game, expect temperatures to be in the low 40s for 10AM kickoffs. We will warm into the mid and upper 40s by the time you sit down to eat your turkey feast and then slide back to around 40 for your afternoon nap and football watching activities. The weather is going to be nice and calm so it won't be the reason for a bad Thanksgiving. We stay quiet for the long holiday weekend with maybe a storm threat for the end of the period around Sunday, heading into December 1st. That is so far out, I won't go into any detail. Let's just get through today's rain and our Thanksgiving holiday. I hope everyone has a nice, restful, happy Thanksgiving!

It's Snowing Somewhere; Just not Here

Another winter storm is about to take shape over the eastern part of the country and give a widespread area of snowfall, just not spreading any of this snowfall into SNE or even CNE for that matter. There is a large swath of a light 1-3" of snowfall from southern WI through southern lower MI into western NY. It will be all rain here in SNE as we will be on the warm side of the storm, but rainfall of 1-2" or more is quite possible. Winds will also be strong close to home with gusts of up to 55 mph possible on the Cape on Tuesday morning and even as high as 45 mph in Boston. It's going to be a stormy time of it here, but it should clear out for the busy travel day on Wednesday. Maybe a flurry later Tuesday night before that, but nothing major here. There are rumblings of a storm later next weekend, but you guessed it, looks like another warm one.

Record Cold to Rain...Wouldn't have it any other Way

Today, Saturday is going to be the coldest day since last winter here in SNE. Highs will struggle to get into the upper 20s to around 30 and yet in just a couple short days we will be seeing rain. We start to moderate tomorrow with highs getting back into the upper 30s which will feel warm after today with wind chills in the 10s. We moderate more on Monday which is a generally dry day, but cloudy with highs in the 40s before rain moves up into our area from the south and gives us a nice 1-2" soaking on Tuesday morning before ending sometime in the early afternoon. Then the storm tries to cutoff from the main jet stream and wander around for a few days eventually exiting off our coast later next week. By around Thanksgiving it tries to organize an area of snow showers into New England, but most look to stay in CNE and NNE. I kept the threat of a few flurries in the forecast, but SNE will not see any noteworthy snow unless that cutoff redevelops offshore and brings in some snow off the Atlantic, which looks highly unlikely. No big threats out there yet, but soon.

Bundle Up!

The forecast is staying unseasonably cold for the foreseeable future with storm chances starting to enter the picture as well. The next four days (Thu - Sun) look to be cold and dry with the coldest day being Saturday. Dress warmly if you are going to the tree lighting ceremony Saturday night at Fanueil Hall. It now looks colder today than it did yesterday for Saturday night. By 6PM, temperatures could be falling into the mid 20s after afternoon highs that struggle to reach 30 degrees. Winds will be quite active as well with wind chills in the teens most of the day with windchills likely falling into the upper 0s by the end of the tree lighting ceremony in Boston. It is almost going to be dangerously cold, so if you are going, be sure to dress extremely warm with multiple layers.

Now we get to talk about the storm threat for early next week, the busiest travel week of the year for Thanksgiving. Right now models are hinting at some type of storm somewhere in the in the eastern third of the country. Where this storm sets up is still a question. Yesterday models were taking this storm up through the Great Lakes, but have pushed that storm track further east with today's models runs. One model the GFS keeps the storm heading into western NY as a decaying storm that never transfers its energy to the coast, so it stays in the form of rain up and down the East Coast, with a band of heavy rain that abruptly ends before WNW winds usher in some colder air. The other reliable model, the EURO, brings the storm right off the NJ Shore, but the trough is so negatively tilted that it ushers in warm air from the Atlantic to give all of New England a SE flow that turns any frozen precipitation over to all rain, even in Caribou, ME! Both scenarios look pretty suspect to me. Right now I like the EURO better, but the fact that it gives Philadelphia to NJ a snowstorm, while keeping Caribou, ME all rain through the entire storm is a bit suspect to me. That means we will have to see what the models bring tomorrow. Right now this is a threat that is 5-6 days out, so we should have a better handle tomorrow, and especially Friday afternoon. Check back in then.

Coldest November Stretch Since 2000

A little research was done and we have found that this particular cold stretch that we are going to go through is the coldest since November 22-25, 2000. That was 8 years ago! Just for your information, that winter was a mighty cold and snowy winter for SNE, so that could be a little prelude to what may come later on. To discuss this pattern, we are still in for a very cold stretch with the cold 'peaking' right around Saturday with highs struggling to get over the freezing mark. The tree lighting at Fanueil Hall is Saturday night so I'm still thinking you should dress in layers and prepare for temperatures in the 20s during the festivities. We start to moderate going into the end of next weekend with a clipper type system that may try to get its act together off the coast, so right now we could get some rain/snow showers into SNE later Sunday into Monday, but for now I am going for a small chance (20 percent) with the possibility of something more important developing for that time period. The computer models have been abomidable so far this year, so best way is to play everything conservative until we start to see some agreement with our major computer models. (GFS/EURO/UKMET/GGEM to name a few) Right now there are all on their own with next week's storm possiblity with one saying no storm, another saying a Great Lakes cutter with warm showery rains, and another bringing some significant snow to parts of New England. So, again, I am going to play this forecast conservative and not get excited about an event until it is more like 3-4 days out, not 6-7, I learn that lesson the hard way every single winter. This year, lesson learned in mid November, usually doesn't happen until mid December. We are off to an early start.

Snowfall Map for Tomorrow 11/18

I thought I would post a little map for the season's first flakes for a few of us. Usually I will not dedicate a whole post for flurries, but since I've got the new mapmaking program, I would give it a shot. Expect snow flurries up to say just SE of Hartford, Providence and up to Taunton/Brockton to the coast. No accumulation, but the outer Cape (Chatham) and maybe even Nantucket may see a skim coating, perhaps. Nothing big, just had time to create this map. Hopefully I will be getting tired of making maps later on this winter. We can only hope.

Cold and Dry through the Week

The cold is still on, but there are no snow chances this week. Well, there are a few minor slight miniscual snow threats to our region, but most of us won't even see a flake. The first chance comes from a clipper storm that tries to get its act together off our coast later tonight and tomorrow. As it tries to develop close to the coast, heading SE all the way, it may try to bring some snow flurries up to the Cape and the Islands. I am just talking about a scattered flurry or two, by no means accumulating snow or even a period of light snow, just a five minute, hey look if you squint hard enough, its snowing! That kind of snow. Then that clipper brings in some even colder air for Wednesday and Thursday through Friday and Saturday, with SNE bottoming out in the low 30s on Friday with highs likely struggling to get over the freezing mark. Saturday will feature a few more clouds, but will be another dry and cold day for the tree lighting in Fanueil Hall with the festivities starting around 5:30PM. An early look at that shows temperatures in the mid 30s for 4PM, likely falling to around freezing by 6PM, then falling through the 20s, likely only in the mid-upper 20s in Boston by 10PM Saturday night. The 'burbs will be getting really cold the end of this week with overnight lows getting down into the lower 10s in the colder areas to upper 10s in many other suburbs away from the urban centers. We got the cold, now we just need the snow to get into the holiday mood, just my opinion. No snow threats out there, yet.

Right to January-like Cold, Bitter Winds

Last night around 8PM, Boston reached a steamy 70 degrees ahead of the squall line that drenched many that were out and about last night around midnight. I know I was soaked. But that August like weather is now over and we are going to be getting more like January now. This is the first 5 day where I put 30s across the board. If I didn't know any better, I would think that this is a forecast in early January or February. But its a mid November forecast. Tomorrow will be a cold day with highs right around 40 degrees, with the hills staying in the mid-upper 30s for highs. Worcester, that's for you. Then we step down a little bit for Tuesday and a clipper will head to our south, decaying along the way and likely only get some clouds up to the Pike and maybe a few flurries on the Cape, but that would be about it. After that there is no real chances for snow/storms as most looks to head out to sea in the fast flow and develop too little, too late for SNE.

There is another clipper that looked good last night on the computer models, namely the 00z GFS, which had a stripe of a couple inches of snow in NW NJ through NYC, but this morning has totally lost it. That would have barely scraped the South Coast with a few snow showers, so its not that big of a loss for us. The good thing is that we are going to stay in this below to much below weather pattern (temperature) for at least the next 45 days! We will have a day here and there that spikes up to around 50, but for the most part, we are in this for the long haul. Enjoy!

Rainy, Mild Weekend Leads to Cold and Snow Early Week

I hope the title didn't frighten you too much with the mention of snow into the forecast for Monday night and Tuesday of next week. I am only talking about a few flurries, but the first flakes of the season for metro Boston always deserve their own headline. To get there, we are going through a few showers tonight with rising temperatures for the Pats v Jets game tonight at 8:15. Temperatures should rise from the mid 40s to upper 40s through the course of the game with morning temperatures coming up to over 50 degrees in Boston early tomorrow morning. Tomorrow morning will feature lots of clouds and a few showers, but if that sun breaks out, we are off to the races in terms of high temperatures tomorrow. Right now we are easily talking about upper 50s for much of SNE, but if that sun breaks out then we are easily talking about low to mid 60s tomorrow afternoon in much of SNE. We all will rise into the mid 60s on Saturday with a gusty southerly wind and rain, heavy at times. All said and done, we are looking at perhaps up to an inch of water out of this storm system for Saturday before it clears out overnight on Saturday. Sunday will be a much cooler day, but temperatures will fall 15-20 degrees only to return to more normal temperatures. The shoe drops early next week temperature wise with highs not getting out of the upper 30s all the way to the coastal plain on Monday with a few flurries in the air. Most look to be over western New England as blowoff from the Lakes' snows, but a few lonely flurries may make it into the greater Boston area on Monday night, but we have a slightly better chance to see our first flakes here in metro Boston on Tuesday. I am not talking about accumulating snow, but just a few flakes in the air to get us into that Holiday spirit as the Fanueil Hall Christmas tree lighting is on the 20th I believe. Believe it or not, Thursday night has the slightest chance of seeing some snowfall as well, so wouldn't that be nice to get us all into that Holdiay spirit. It will definitely be very cold next week and the winter parkas and warm weather gear will be needed most definitely. More on this changing weather pattern tomorrow and our chances of our first snow next week.

Winter's March Southward Toward Lower 48 Marks Cold Next Week With Snow Chances?

After we get past tomorrow night's cool rain and Friday morning's showers, and then finally one last push of mild rain on Saturday afternoon into early Sunday we will be introducing ourselves to the coldest air since last winter into SNE. We are talking about temperatures later next week that will be featuring Decemberlike cold. Early in the week, Monday and Tuesday, temperatures will likely range from the mid 40s on Monday to low 40s on Tuesday before we dip into the 30s here in SNE, and even Boston on Wednesday and we could stay in the 30s to around 40 for about a 7-10 or more day time period before we slowly warm up for a brief time before the motherload of cold air and storminess moves in the first week of December, as it looks right now. First, we have tomorrow. Tomorrow looks like it starts off dry with maybe some early morning sunshine before it fades with afternoon temperatures in the mid 40s. Then the rain will move in tomorrow night and it will stay raw with temperatures holding steady in the upper 30s to lower 40s before we warm up on Friday into the 50s and could be into the 60s on Saturday and perhaps 50s on Sunday before cooling down bigtime later next week for the long haul.

There are also a few storm chances in this period. The first is with a clipper trying to redevelop offshore, but looks like it will be too little too late with most of the storm over the fishes. This would be in the day 6-7 time period, namely Nov. 18-19th. Then our second storm chance comes on the Nov. 20 to 22nd time period that would be a coastal type of storm. However, these are so far out in the future, I am not even going to get into any detail. All I will say about the Nov. 20-22nd storm is that there has been a signal for a coastal storm in the time period for a few days now and has not backed off, yet. So...as always, stay tuned for further updates. One thing is for sure, wintertime cold is only a few days away and real snow threats for SNE are starting to pop up and they are no longer in fantasy range.

Chilly Week Ahead, Not Cold Enough Though (White)

Our Sunday turned out to be a great day with mostly sunny skies and highs getting up to near 60 degrees in much of SNE. However, we will start to cool down now and this week is just a subtle preview of what we could be dealing with in about two weeks. Tomorrow we will return to seasonable weather with highs around 50 degrees, which will feel chilly after having the last few days in the 60's, since last Wednesday or Thursday I believe. We will continue to bottom out going into Tuesday and Wednesday with highs only in the mid and upper 40's. The one consolation with this will be the sunshine, but the sunshine this time of year is really becoming weaker and weaker and by 2pm, it feels like we are already starting to get dark around here, even though I know the sun doesn't set until about 4:20pm. We bottom out on Thursday ahead of the next storm system that will cut to our west and bring in some milder air for next weekend after Friday's rain showers. Thursday will be tough to get temperatures out of the upper 30's in Worcester with low lining areas staying in the lower 40's or right around 40 degrees. Our next storm system moves in Friday with RAIN showers as we warm up with SW flow. We will warm back into the 50's for next Saturday, but this warmup will be even briefer than the one we just went through. We are only about 10-14 days away from seeing some of the coldest air since last winter. Computer models this afternoon brought highs in the upper 20's to lower 30's for around Thanksgiving week, starting on Monday and continuing the cold regime, but it does look dry.

Rainy Weather

Alright, I have switched the background to our 5 day forecast from fall to winter. I think it is about time and maybe this new background can jump start our winter here in SNE. Parts of New York state, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania have already seen heavy accumulating snows so far. Some parts of NY, NJ, and PA saw over a foot to 18"+ of snowfall last Tuesday. Worcester got their first flakes of the season last week as well. Then we saw temperatures soar into the mid to upper 60's early this week only to have a muggy time of it today and going into this weekend with cloudy skies and drizzly weather. Tomorrow will feature another day of scattered showers and mild temperatures, as well as Sunday before we start to cool down in a big way going into Monday when highs will be in the upper 40's in the hills to around 50 near the coast. We continue to cool down going into Tuesday and Wednesday with highs staying in the mid to upper 40's on Tuesday and likely holding in the mid 40's on Wednesday with a slight chance of a few wet snow showers later Wednesday night as a warm front moves through the area. It would be very light and right now it is just the slightest chance of actually seeing this verify. That leads us going into next weekend as a storm system will cut to our west and draw in some unseasonably warm air and rainy conditions once again before we really start to cool (cold) down going into mid month and latest indications are that we could be going into the Deep Freeze for Thanksgiving week. That's way out there so more on that later on this month. Luckily there is only about 19 days left until Thanksgiving. Where does time go?

Mild Week Ahead, Prospects of Prolonged Cold (& Snow) Long Range

I hope everyone had a good Halloween this past Friday night. We got some great weather for the trick or treaters and for the party goers as well. Now we are into the month of November and the frequency of cold shots and snow chances will start to increase with each passing day. We start the month with average highs in the mid to upper 50’s, but by month’s end, average highs will be falling into the lower to middle 40’s, heading into December. We are starting off the month chilly with highs only getting into the mid 40’s today here in SNE. Worcester could have a tough time coming over the 38-42 degree range this afternoon. But, this is a one day cold snap and we are returning to normal or slightly above normal tomorrow afternoon with highs getting to between 55-60 degrees, warmest in the Route 24 corridor. We continue the warm up this week as we head into midweek with Tuesday and Wednesday getting real warm around these parts ahead of the next storm system. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will be getting into the lower 60’s easily and with enough sunshine, either of the two days, more likely Wednesday could get close to 70 degrees in some parts away from the coast, believe it or not. But then the rain and unsettled weather comes for later in the week with Thursday and Friday both being showery days with highs dropping back into the 50’s, but it will still be a warm airmass, so no worries of frozen precipitation even to the Canadian border with this one. It will be an all rain situation.

Outlooks way out into mid November suggest a return to a prolonged period of cold weather and storm chances, but that is so far out, let’s get through the first two weeks of November before we start thinking about the last two weeks. As the winter returns, I will be posting more and more often, so get ready, Winter 2008-2009 is nearly upon us.

Snow in the Forecast?!

Fall has really settled into New England this past couple of days. Today was a very blustery day with temperatures in the upper 40’s in the Worcester Hills to lower 50’s in the lower elevations. A stiff NE breeze gave a bite to the air in southeastern Massachusetts today with the ocean storm off our coastline today. We woke up to temperatures in the 30’s in suburbia with mid 20’s out past Worcester into SW NH. Tonight will be another chilly night with many areas in suburbia of Boston getting down into the upper 20’s to around 30 degrees. However, we will rebound nicely tomorrow with highs getting back to the mid 50’s and the wind will not be as strong as it was today. Ahead of the next storm system, the flow will turn SW which will allow us to warm up to around 60 degrees, believe it or not, on Tuesday afternoon before rain showers move in from the NW later in the day.
As the rain pushes through our area, an area of low pressure will start to develop off the Cape and strengthen rapidly, all the while, the temperatures will be crashing in Southern New England. At this time, areas in Central and Northern New England will likely already be seeing light to moderate precipitation with temperatures dropping through the 30’s, so they will see the rain mix with and change to an all snow event. Now the question becomes, will there still be precipitation falling on Wednesday morning here in the Boston metro area. If so, I strongly believe that the precipitation type will not be falling in the form of drops, but in the form of flakes. Areas in elevated locations, like the Worcester Hills and Manadnocks of SW NH will see a higher likelihood of snowfall, but even areas closer to Boston, like Boston’s immediate suburbs, could see some wet snow flakes if this materializes like it should. Regardless, Wednesday is going to be a COLD BLUSTERY day with highs staying in the lower to mid 40’s in SNE and NNE won’t get out of the 30’s! Some areas of the higher elevations of NH and ME may see an accumulation out of this. A couple to a few inches of snowfall is not out of the question on the highest peaks.

The temperatures moderate later on in the forecast, so it’s not all doom and gloom.

Indian Summer to Fall Chill

Enjoy the last few days of nice summery weather here in SNE. Tomorrow will be another day with highs in the upper 60's to around 70 degrees with abundant sunshine and we will only be warmer on Wednesday with highs getting well into the 70's. Overnight lows won't be as chilly Wednesday and Thursday mornings as most places will stay above 50 degrees. However, by the end of the week and into next weekend especially, we will struggle to match those nighttime lows for afternoon highs. Our transition day will be on Thursday with showers and moderate temperatures, highs in the 60's before we really start to cool down on Friday with highs staying in the 50's and then we really take a step down on Saturday with highs likely staying in the upper 40's here in SNE with overnight lows getting down into the 20's and 30's even here in SNE. Of course the valleys and sheltered regions will fall below freezing as many already have, but places that haven't seen that killing frost will get it this weekend. We will slowly start to moderate heading into next week, but the damage will have already been done for many of your plants outside as leaves will start to fall from the trees and we will introduce leaf raking season. Always fun.

The Red Sox/Rays game tomorrow looks very nice with temperatures in the mid 60's for the 7PM first pitch, and temperatures will gradually head towards 60 degrees by game's end. Hopefully we can have a better outcome tomorrow than what we had today. The Sox are down 2-1, heading into Game 4. Wakefield heads to the mound tomorrow to stop the bleeding.

Foliage Starting to Peak

The fall foliage is starting to peak across much of Central and now Southern New England. It has come on strong with the maples and birches here in eastern Massachusetts and is really starting to look amazing with peak conditions coming on strong and vibrant. SE Massachusetts is still only nearing peak, while everyone else will be passing peak in the next week or two with massive leaf drop likely. This is an amazing weekend for leaf peeping for those who went to the North Country to see amazing vibrant colors on the base of the mountains and snow capped summits. Its an amazing sight. Route 16 in NH is great this time of year. The peak colors will continue to head SE towards the coast and get the Cape within the next 7-10 days. The weather has been fantastic with highs in the North getting up into the 60's with highs in the South getting into the 70's the past couple of days. Tomorrow through Tuesday and Wednesday look to continue the cool nights and warm days theme with highs tomorrow and Monday near 70, while Tuesday will be into the mid 70's, before we start to cool off later in the week to near 60 by Thursday and then by the weekend, highs will be in the 50's it looks like in the Boston metro area with highs in the north likely staying in the 40's with overnight lows into the 20's North and 30's South. If you haven't gotten a frost yet, next weekend may be the time for you. It looks like many areas outside of the city of Boston will be experiencing their first frosts and possibly hard freezes by next weekend, say around Sunday morning perhaps. Until then, enjoy the warm October weather because long range outlooks chill us down big time by the end of next week and that cool to cold weather regime looks to continue through the rest of the month it looks like. So get out there and enjoy the warm sunshine while we still have it.

The Sun Returns...

The sun has finally returned to SNE after waiting days and day for its return. Last night an area of showers, locally heavy, moved through the South Shore of Massachusetts and left up to a quarter inch of rainfall in its wake and left the morning pavement wet across cities from Brockton to Plymouth, MA. That has moved offshore now and we will now be seeing the clouds start to break with the ground drying out after about a week of clouds and rain. Today will actually feature nice temperatures as well with highs getting right up to about 70 degrees. Normal for this time of year is about 67 degrees, so we will actually be a few degrees above normal for the date. Tomorrow looks like another dry and fairly mild day with highs getting into the upper 60’s to around 70 degrees. Then a front will move through our area from Canada and we will go into the coolest air of the season on Saturday and we really chill down by Monday with highs likely in the around 50 degrees on the hilltops and highest elevations of SNE, likely only 40’s for highs in NNE, and likely around 55 degrees in the city of Boston. Overnight lows with the longer nights will have a chance to really bottom out as we cool down the afternoon highs, so we will likely see a frosty Sunday morning here in many areas outside of the cities here in SNE, with more people getting into frosts and growing season ending freezes by Monday and Tuesday mornings. Monday will feel like a day more suitable for early to mid November here in SNE and could come as a shock to the system.

If you are looking for snow, there may be some of the white stuff in the Catskills of northern upstate New York tomorrow night which could push over into the Green Mountains of Vermont with the usual places like Mount Mansfield and Jay Peak likely getting a fresh covering of snow on their summits, yielding a Saturday with snowcapped mountains and nice foliage at the base. That could be quite the sight for leaf peepers. SNE will have to wait another 2 weeks before we get peak foliage into our area. The snow? I think we will have to wait a little while longer yet, but the first flakes are likely only a few short weeks away, climatologically.

October to Start Chilly

October is a month of transition here in SNE. We can start off the month with nearly summery conditions with temperatures into the 80’s, with the all-time record high at Boston’s Logan Airport at 90 degrees. It can also see winter like cold with the record low in the 10’s in suburbia to 20’s in the city of Boston. This is also the month where many see their first flakes as well. Actually, we usually see accumulating snowfall about one every three to four winters outside of the city, with the last accumulating October snowfall on October 29, 2005. That day featured a forecast for morning snow showers to rain that quickly grew intense and in the end, some towns in metro Boston picked up a thick coating to a couple of inches of water logged snowfall. October snowfalls don’t mean that you will have a blockbuster year, however. In October of 2001, Boston recorded its earliest flakes on record, October 8th, and Boston only saw about 17” of snow for the entire winter that year, with the majority of it falling overnight on December 8th, when a general 5-8” snowstorm blanketed SNE with heavy wet snow.

That said, our forecast is cooling down as we head into the weekend. Tomorrow will be a near normal day, maybe even slightly above normal with temperatures in the upper 60’s to around 70 degrees tomorrow. The sun will also make an appearance tomorrow after today’s storms around Boston. After six straight cloudy days, we could use some sun. Temperatures continue to decline going into Friday and Saturday with only highs in the low 60’s Friday, and around 60 on Saturday. We continue to drop in the temperature department on Sunday with a frosty morning out in suburbia, with lows getting down to the low and mid 30’s in places like Norwood, MA and Bedford, MA. That will lead to a day of temperatures maxing out in the upper 50’s. We continue the downward trend on Monday with highs likely staying in the lower 50’s in Worcester County and SW NH, with mid 50’s closer to the coast. Morning lows will be very cold as well with temperatures likely going below freezing for some time in suburbia and likely around 40-44 degrees in the city of Boston. Monday will be our coolest day of the next bunch with moderating temperatures later next week, getting back into the mid 60’s by midweek. Early call on Columbus Day weekend and its way too early to be speculating on this, but right now it looks like a mainly dry weekend with seasonably cool temperatures. If you had to peg me with numbers, I would say low 60’s in SNE with cooler temperatures in the mountains. Likely highs in the 50’s and lows in the 20’s and 30’s up North, with peaking color in Central and ‘northern’ SNE. The North Country will likely be past peak at this time with massive leaf drop at this time at the highest elevations. Still, its way too early to be looking out this far, so we will have to wait and see as we head into next week.

That is all for now, I will try to post more regularly as we head into the most fun part of the year, wintertime. Enjoy October, it's one of the best months of the year.

Hurricane Kyle Just Misses...

Hurricane Kyle will be missing SNE by just miles tomorrow morning as it passes closest to Nantucket as a minimal Category 1 storm with max winds of around 80 mph, with gusts to 100 mph as it heads into the Gulf of Maine and makes landfall somewhere in Downeast Maine or Nova Scotia as a minimal hurricane or strong tropical storm. Kyle will give some tropical storm force gusts to the Cape and Islands and likely some rain from its outer bands but that will be about it. The rain from the front will finally come to an end for the rest of eastern SNE later tonight after 48 hours of rainfall and rain amounting up to 5-6" in some spots with many spots receiving between 2-5" of rainfall since yesterday morning. If Kyle were to hit us, we'd be talking about an easy 6"+, but that will not be the case, so let's not even worry about it. Kyle leaves into the Canadian Maritimes later tomorrow night and that will allow for a brief warmup for Monday with temperatures into the low to mid 70's under partly cloudy skies.

Then we will start to cool down for the midweek when we will be watching for a Wednesday rainstorm again with cool temperatures and rainy conditions. This doesn't look like flooding rains that we have gone through this weekend, but enough to slow things down and just make it wet. A front will clear the area on Thursday morning and then the floodgates will open this weekend for some real cool fall air to arrive to SNE as we will have highs around 60 degrees on Thursday, but then we could be stuck in the mid 50's for a majority of next weekend with lows getting to frosty levels and the end of the growing season for suburbia; low 30's, even a few upper 20's in the coldest locals?

We'll have to wait and see on that. Until then, just one more so so day before some nice weather right in time for the start of the work week.

September Warmth to Chill

SUNDAY- Good morning to all of you readers. I know it has been quite a long time since I have posted, but I am back now and will be posting more sporadically, but will still post for the bigger weather events. I hope we all survived Hannah last night. The wind was pretty meager, but the rainfall was impressive with 3-6" of rain falling in a 6 hour timeframe. Now we look to the beginning of the week with more warm temperatures, into the 80's, before we start to cool off going into the midweek with temperatures falling back into the 60's with very chilly overnight lows. Tomorrow we are looking at highs in the low to mid 80's with partly cloudy skies before Tuesday we see clouds increase during the course of the afternoon and possibly see some scattered showers later in the afternoon and evening. Highs will still be quite warm on Tuesday, into the low 80's. Then those showers will bring in some nice cool air with highs in the upper 60's for both Wednesday and Thursday. Some places that radiate the best at night will see low temperatures Thursday morning around 40 degrees believe it or not, even after we had dewpoints in the mid and upper 70's with Hannah's moisture around yesterday afternoon.

Hurricane Ike, changing the topic, is moving through the northern part of Hispanola right now and heading for the eastern part of Cuba in the next 24 hours as a strong Category 4 Hurricane with max winds of 135 mph, gusting over 160. Cuba will rip this strong hurricane apart a bit, but it will enter the Gulf as a Cat 1 and be able to strengthen to possibly a Cat 3 or higher as it heads anywhere from western FL to Houston, TX. The latter part of this week could get interesting once again. Latest models show this storm getting close to New Orleans yet again as a strong Cat 3, but we are still in la-la land. Time will tell.

Fall Chill to Summer Heat!

MONDAY- Good morning. Its a warm Monday here in southern New England. As of the noon hour, many areas from the Cape to metrowest are coming up into the lower to middle 80's on our way to highs in the upper 80's to maybe knicking 90 degrees in a few towns. A front will be coming through tomorrow with the slight chance of a shower or storm before noon north of the Mass Pike with a greater chance of showers and storms between 11AM and 3PM on the South Shore and South Coast and Cape. This will help to keep our temperatures down into the 70's with partly cloudy skies with Canadian air north of the Pike to mostly cloudy skies south of the Pike and especially the further east you go. This front will deliver some fresh Canadian air for Wednesday and we will see deep blue skies with very low humidity and temperatures only getting into the low to mid 70's despite nearly 100 percent sunshine. It will be a crisp fall-like airmass over us. That leads us to a very chilly night tomorrow night and Wednesday morning. We could have lows drop into the mid 40's in suburbia for Wednesday morning with areas south of the Pike staying in the 50's to around 60 in Boston and on the Cape. But places like Norwood, MA and Bedford, MA may bottom out between 42-44 degrees as they usually radiate like crazy on a clear calm night. We have one more cold morning on Thursday but the afternoon will be warm with temperatures getting back into the low 80's even with morning temperatures falling down into the 40's once again in suburbia, but again, Worcester, Boston and the Cape with likely stay in the 57-62 degree range overnight. Then it is off to the races with very warm conditions coming in to end the week with temperatures nearing 90 once we get to Friday and Saturday with abundant sunshine. The heat will return. Unfortunately its when everyone is starting to go back to work and school. Figures.

Tropical Storm Faye is Born

TROPICAL UPDATE- Well, we officially have tropical storm Faye out in the Atlantic. She is a weak TS with max winds of 40 mph sustained with gusts up to 50 mph. She is moving W at 13 mph and is currently interacting with Hispanola which will not allow this system to really intensify much as it heads towards Florida. The computer models this morning showed a GA/SC hit to NYC to eastern New England, but this afternoon, many have shifted much further west, possibly heading into the Gulf of Mexico. It may even interact with the mountains of Cuba which could totally wreak havoc on this system and destroy it totally into nothing more than a disorganized area of thunderstorms and showers with some wind. I have outlined the most likely track for Tropical Storm Faye as of right now. I have moved it west, much further west than originally forecasted yesterday. Here is an update from the NHC.

...Tropical Storm Fay forms...sixth Atlantic storm of the season... Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that the low pressure area over the Mona Passage became a tropical storm as it moved into the eastern Dominican Republic.

At 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...the government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Dominican Republic for the entire north coast of the Dominican Republic and for the South Coast east of San Pedro de macoris. A Tropical Storm Warning is
also in effect for the north coast of Haiti from gonaives northward. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24
hours.

At 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...the government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the provinces of Guantanamo...Santiago de Cuba...and Granma.

At 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...the government of Cuba has issued a tropical storm watch for the provinces of Holguin and Las Tunas. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

At 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located near latitude 18.5 north...longitude 69.4 west or about 35 miles... 55 km...east of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic and about 395 miles...635 km...east-southeast of Guantanamo Cuba.

Fay is moving toward the west near 14 mph...22 km/hr. A general motion toward the west-northwest is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track...the center of Fay will cross Hispaniola tonight and Saturday...and pass near or over eastern
Cuba Saturday night and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...65 km/hr...with higher gusts...mainly over water to the north and east of the center. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 kmfrom the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb...29.77 inches.

Tides of 1 to 2 feet feet above normal can be expected in the warning area in areas of onshore flow. Fay is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over Hispaniola and eastern Cuba...with isolated maximu amounts of 12 inches. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Repeating the 500 PM AST position...18.5 N...69.4 W. Movement toward...west near 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds...40 mph. Minimum central pressure...1008 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 800 PM AST followed by the next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.