Thursday Night - Friday Snow Station by Station

These are a few snowfall accumulation forecasts for tomorrow night through Friday morning from a few local Boston news stations. The first one is from WCVB News Channel 5. The middle one is from WHDH 7 Boston. This forecast is from Pete Bouchard. He generally is very good with forecasts, but he likes to side with extremes and has not done a very good job snowfall forecasting this winter. The last one is from Fox 25 News Boston from Kevin Lomanoawiz, sorry if I butchered his name, who is one of the best winter storm forecasters around these parts. He is usually very good with his forecasts and is not afraid to change his forecasts with dramatic changes in model runs and won't wait for the NWS statement, that most tv forecasters wait for. My forecast is on the next post and I like that one for now. I'm not afraid to change my forecast and if I have to, I will before the storm starts tomorrow.

March Roars in like a Lion

Another winter storm is coming towards all of New England at this time. Today will be a great day, no doubt about it. Highs will reach up all the way into the lower to mid 40's with lots of melting snow. Tomorrow will start out really nice with partly cloudy skies in the morning becoming overcast later in the day.

It looks like all snow will break out for all of SNE from Bridgeport, CT to southern NH on Thursday night. The snow will quickly change to a mostly rain situation in areas shaded in green, after accumulating about an inch of slushy snow, which will likely be washed away with 1-2" of rain that will fall.

Further north in the pink shaded region, the snow will hang on longer and not directly change to rain, but to freezing rain and sleet. Right now I am calling for a general 1-3" of snow with the most near the MA/NH border.

Futhern north into extreme northern MA and much of southern NH and VT, it will be a mostly snow event with heavy snowfall accumulations at that. My first call for this area is a solid 5-9" of snow accumulation with more in the northern mountains, starting just north of Concord, NH, where in excess of 1 foot may fall. A few mountain tops may wind up with closer to 2 feet of snow accumuation.

This situation could easily change because a change in the storm track by 50-100 miles would have a great impacts on how much snow falls and where. If the storm takes a more northern, or inland track, areas in all of SNE can forget about any type of snow accumulation with heavy rains and the Cape would see temperatures into the 50's. A track further to the ESE, or more offshore track, would push the heaviest of the snows out of the northern mountains and into Central New England and we would push that 5-9" accumulation closer to the coast and closer to the Boston metropolitan areas. We are now about 1 to 1.5 days away from the actual event happening, so we are starting to etch this in stone, but you know that these storms are always very finicky so keep tuned to this website and the NWS at weather.gov for the latest information on this storm and if any watches, warnings, or advisories get posted for this winter storm threat.

Stormy Weather on the Horizon...This Time not so White

Yesterday's little snowstorm caught me by surprise. I was not expecting Boston to wind up with 2" of snow or have Natick almost close in on 4". Where I live, we only managed about 1.5" of snow, but that was even more than the dusting I was forecasting. With today's temperatures into the upper 30's and lower 40's and with the high almost March sun angle, lots of the snow has melted away, especially in the sunny areas. Where the shade is, a little melting went on, but where the sun shines the longest, the ground is totally bare, at least where I live. There will be more melting tomorrow with highs getting back into the lower 40's once again with partly cloudy skies. Tranquil weather will continue into the first part of Thursday, before a total mess arrives at our doorstep on Thursday night.

Thursday night it looks like a wintry mix of precipitation will develop, snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain. North of the MA border, it may start as mainly snow and accumulate to the tune of a few inches with several inches over ski country. SNE will see a quick mix, but with the low taking a route somewhere around Long Island through Providence and out towards Boston, this will allow warm air to get enclosed into SNE turning any wintry mix into a sloppy rain. The rain could very well be heavy at times with nearly 1-2". This may pose a flooding threat in areas where there is still a fairly decent snowcover of saturated snow. Street, or urban flooding will be a major problem with many snow banks covering sewage drains and this will cause many ponds on the roadways. Soldiers Field Road in Brighton/Boston is infamous for late winter, early spring street flooding.

That will blow past our area on Friday night and end Saturday morning as a few widely scattered rain showers or even a few wet snowflakes, before the sun returns Saturday afternoon. The sun will soar the temperatures to around 40 degrees and we will generally stay around 40, give or take a few degrees through the period of the extended forecast. I will mention the possibility of a little light snow Saturday night with a little system coming out of the Ohio Valley, that may deposit a couple inches to the cities of Pittsburgh and State College and Philadelphia's northwest suburbs. That may bounce up in our direction, but it is still way to early to call. Lets just take it one storm at a time for now.

More on the Friday storm later.

For any readers out there, check "New England Weather" (www.sneweather.blogspot.com) as well for information on the forecast and Friday's storm as there is often great details of upcoming storms and more details for when I just can't get to a computer.

Thats all for now, enjoy the "warmth" the next couple days.

More Snow in the Forecast

Sorry for not posting in a while. I have been away to see family in California for the past week. It was a nice break for all thats going on around here. If you haven't heard already there is a little storm coming to SNE that will last from late tonight through much of Tuesday.

I have been watching this storm on the computer models for the past couple days and it now looks like the two best models, GFS and NAM are starting to come into agreement. Yesterday, the 18z GFS was really going gangbusters with this storm bringing a nice 6"+ of snow from BOS south. At the same time, the 18z NAM was barely giving any snow to the Cape and Islands. Well, the 6z models are in and they are not the most reliable, but they have come into better agreement. The GFS have backed off and the NAM is pretty much holding its ground. All that said, this is my first and possibly last call on this little storm. North of the MA Pike, don't expect much. Right now I am forecasting a dusting to one inch here. That may be pushing it too. South of the Pike from BOS points south to Hartford, Providence, and Plymouth, expect a general 1-3" by the time all is said and done by sometime on Tuesday. Further south I have forecasted a general 3-5" with possibly 4-8" in the darkest pink in SW CT. That is pretty much it with this one.

FIRST CALL CITY TO CITY FORECAST

MASSACHUSETTS

Boston 0.5"
Reading T
Worcester 1.5"
Plymouth 2"
Hyannis 3.5"

RHODE ISLAND

Providence 3"
Newport 2.5"
Pawtucket 3.5"

CONNETICUTT

Hartford 3.5"
Litchfield 4"
Waterbury 3.5"
Bridgeport 5.5"

Here is the extended forecast for SNE. Today, before the snow, will be quite nice with sunny skies in the morning that will bump temperatures into the lower 40's. Monday and Tuesday will feature temperatures in the 30's with light snow, especially over southern CT, RI, and southern MA. To end off the week, the sun will return and highs my be pushing the middle 40's by Thursday before the next mixed bag of a storm arrives in time for the weekend. More on that as we get closer.

VALENTINES DAY STORM OUTLOOK

Here is my second call for the Valentine's Day storm. EH Boston, I feel your pain. I think you will be able to take off Wednesday night for Italy. That is when we will likely be a the peak of the storm, but we could be seeing a mix of rain and sleet at this time. You should get off though, maybe a delay.

I decided to base my snowfall forecast more on the GFS because it is pretty much in the middle of the road between the NAM and the EURO. The NAM brings this storm very close to the coast and actually has it pass right over the cities of Providence and Boston. I don't think this will happen. There will be just too much cold air on the onset and the model isn't seeing this for some reason. The arctic front will be pushing through early Tuesday morning with perhaps a snow shower or snow squall. Then the cold air will be really getting entrenched and the cold front will basically become stationary south of New England. Storms like this love to travel along a stationary front and I don't see this one being the exception. If the NAM were to verify about 3/4 of the storm would be rain for HAR-ORH-PVD-BOS, with limited accumulations.

The GFS has a more offshore component, which I like. It, however, does throw lots of warm air off the Atlantic all the way past Route 128 and close to 495 for a change to freezing rain, sleet and rain. I like that but I think that with a position that the GFS is showing where the storm is, SE of Nantucket, the warm air from the ocean will not make it that far inland. We have had a very cold stretch the past 20+ days and that will help us. Ocean water temperatures one month ago were in the low to mid 40's. Now they are in the mid to upper 30's. That is much less heat energy to get involved and change over the storm for many. Usually the rain/snow line with these storms never gets past Burlington or Wakefield. Then it will collapse back to the SE and possible envelop the Cape as well with the last burst of snow.

The EURO shows a plain out BLIZZARD for all of SNE, except the Cape and Islands. If the EURO were to verify, all the snow accumulations would be way underdone. I would have to bump them up by 4-8" for most. However, if the NAM were to verify, I would have to move up the line of a couple inches all the way to BOS-PVD. As you can see, this forecast, like all, will eventually turn into a NOWCAST. We will see what we get.

Here are the basics....

Timing:

Tuesday Night: Snow overspreads the area for all of SNE. Progressively becomes steadier and heavier. A quick inch or two on the Cape before a change to rain occurs. It will start to mix with sleet south of Plymouth, MA. NW of here, it should stay as all snow with as much as 2-4" south of Boston to Plymouth and 3-6" by the Wednesday morning commute just NW of BOS-PVD.

Wednesday Early PM: Then it gets interesting. That line of mix to rain will gradually move up into PVD and the 128 corridor of BOS. This will limit accumulations in this area. I do however, expect it to stay all snow NW of Bedford, Lawrence, Hopkinton, and Hartford.

Wednesday Late PM: The mix/rain line gets as far north as it will get as outlined above and now heads back to the SE very fast. This will be the peak of the storm. Out in Worcester county and most of the rest of NH, VT...snowfall rates will be approaching 2-3"/hr. Combined with winds of 35-45mph sustained, gusting to 60mph, with near whiteout conditions, this is when interior SNE may achieve Blizzard of '07 criteria. Snow will start to accumulate again inside of Route 128 and head back to Boston and Providence.

Wednesday Night - Early Thursday Morning: Storm is winding down, precipitation moving from SW to NE. Pretty heavy backlash snows could be going on for NE Massachusetts in Middlesex, Essex, and Suffolk counties with perhaps rates of 1-2"/hr. before abruptly ending. NNE will wind up with about 1-2 FEET once all said and done from VT to NH to interior ME. Some places may pick up close to 30" in the mountains of interior ME.

Thursday Afternoon: Breaking in the clouds in CT and entering MA. Very windy and very cold with another arctic blast. Anything slushy will flash freeze and turn to cement. Heads up...get your shoveling done early.

SCHOOL CLOSINGS???

I do think there will be school closings across SNE. I would say that anywhere NW of Route 128 and west of Framingham, Natick, will see a close for Wednesday. Inside 128 and for interior MA and north of PVD, there will likely be delays with scattered closings. The Cape....school will be in session. Then for Thursday there may be delays in NW MA and southern NH. In fact if southern NH gets closer to 20", there may be closings again due to uncleared sidewalks.

PROJECTIONS FOR SELECTED CITIES

In Massachusetts....Boston 6"....Woburn 8"....Worcester 13"....Springfield 10"....Plymouth 4"....Cape Cod 2" (washed away)...Pittsfield 16"

In New Hampshire....Nashua 12"....Manchester....13"....Concord 15"....North Conway 19"....Keene 20"....Berlin 21"....Laconia 14"

In Connetticut...Hartford 10"...Litchfield 11"....Waterbury 6"....Norwich 4"

In Rhode Island....Providence 5"....Pawtucket 6"....Newport 2"....9 miles N of PVD 6"

In Vermont....Bennington 17"....Killington 24"....Middlebury 16"...Burlington 13"

Thats all for now, any questions or critisisms, I would greatly appreciate. Take care.

First Call Snow Map

Its late and I'm tired. I have been watching the models and their trends all day today and its looking good for a major east coast storm. Historic? Possibly, but this storm will be by no means a crippling snowstorm for a wide area.

Let me break down the snowfall map. The green area in southern Virginia is a plain rainstorm. Further north, the red area is the area of great concern for a fairly significant icestorm. Ice accumulations of 1/4" to 1/2" are possible here, but it would most likely be a sleet scenario. We now get into the pink area. This is the outlying area of snow around the heavier bands inland. Snowfall in this color will be light to moderate. I would expect a 3-6" snowfall in the southern areas of this color. In the north, northern New England, 2-4" is what I am thinking right now. This snow here would be a very fluffy type snow.

Now we start to get into the meat and potatoes. The dark pink/purple area is where moderate to heavy snowfall accumulations are probable. This area includes just north of DC, Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York City, Boston, and Portland, ME. Accumulations here look to be on the order of 6-12". Fluffiest snow with ratios of up to 20:1 will be away from the coast.

The next darker purple inside the other one is where a band of even heavier snow is likely. This is the jackpot area that will likely see the heaviest snow in this entire bonanza. A list of cities include York, PA, Allentown, PA, Hartford, Springfield, Worcester and Portsmouth, NH. A new are of this snow may occur in Downeast Maine. Accumulations here will range from 12-18" with isolated areas receiving up to 2 feet, especially in the white zone near York, PA.

Next Update tomorrow night.

12z EURO SHOWING SNE VALENTINE'S BLIZZARD!

Okay, this is just one run of the EURO, but its a mighty big one if you ask me. Taking this map above verbatim, SNE would be clobbered with heavy snow and wind with temperatures in the teens. Snow ratios would be around 20:1!

The newest JMA is also showing a pretty big Nor'easter along the entire I-95 corridor. We're all waiting for the 18z GFS to see what it will say.

Its getting interesting baby!

GETTING INTERESTING BY NEXT WEEK!

The quiet weather may be ending by early next week. Finally. There are now signs that early next week may introduce a period of extremely unsettled and stormy weather for the eastern seaboard. First storm threat will come Monday through Wednesday. The Mid Atlantic looks to be absolutely clobbered by this winter storm early next week. Easily, from Richmond, VA to DC to Baltimore to Philadelphia to maybe NYC, there may be some really heavy snow accumulating to possibly over 12 inches. There are signs that some spots in the Mid Atlantic may receive over 20 inches of snowfall.

What does this mean for us? Well, it means lots. If this storm archs up the coast, we will be looking at a monster blizzard from a direct hit with snowfall of easily 6"+. Even a graze with this storm would mean a nice couple of inches for SNE.

Believe it or not, just days after this storm, there is now another even bigger monster on many of the maps for all of the I-95 corridor from DC to Boston. One thing is for sure, crazy times are approaching and be sure to click back here in the coming days to know the latest.

STORM FREE PATTERN REMAINS

Well, there really isn't much to talk about. We are missing a pretty potent clipper right now as we speak. A fairly significant snowstorm has occured from Minneapolis to Chicago to Indianapolis and maxing out around Cincinnatti where 5-8" of snow is likely. The snow will likely fall in Washington DC as well, where 1-3" is possible. Thats by the wayside and we have nothing else to look forward to unless you call partly cloudy skies and highs in the 20's to around 30 weather. Thats it. A pretty monotonous forecast.

BRRRRRRRRR

Baby its cold outside. That will be the theme most of this week as we are going into the deep freeze. Remember the low 70's of one month ago. Well, isn't that an all too far distant memory now. Temperatures will bottom out Tuesday morning as much of Boston's suburbs will dip below to 0F mark for the first time in a couple winters. First we have to get through tomorrow morning and afternoon. Tomorrow will start in the low single digits, Boston around 10. There is a WIND CHILL ADVISORY for Worcester County points north and west. Wind chills here tomorrow morning will be in the -15 to -20 degree range. Outside of the advisory area, wind chills will be around 0 to -10. The cold maxes out on Tuesday morning with lows regionwide ranging from 0 to 5 in extreme SNE and urban centers. Lows of -10 to 0 will be found from southern NH to much of the rest of SNE. Wind chills may bottom out at -25F! Now thats cold. Highs will only rebound into the 10's once again.

Still want more cold? You got it. Highs will stay below freezing the rest of the week. By Friday, we may try to budge the 30 degree mark, but then another polar front will move through to begin the weekend and highs will be back into the mid 20's to start out the weekend. Through the entire period, I see absolutely NO SNOW. Not even a flurry. Much of the Northeast will remain dry through the period, except for downwind of the Great Lakes where areas south of Buffalo, NY and Watertown NY have been getting pounded with snow today alone. Snowfall accumulations just today have ranged from about 20-30" in Watertown, NY. Tomorrow they are slated for another one to two feet with more likely all week. It will be insane to see the webcams from that area in the next couple weeks before the Lakes close for the winter due to being frozen. Lake Erie will likely freeze over, cutting snowfall for Buffalo, but Lake Ontario may stay ice free and hammer northwest NY State.

A clipper may bring some snow to the Mid Atlantic Tuesday night through Wednesday, but accumulations even there look to be minimal and it would harmlessly head out to sea. So expect dry conditions through the period and just stay warm.

GO BEARS!!!

SNOW ON THE WAY

Here are the snowfall reports from this morning as the storm just moved close enough to throw in some brief, but intense wet snows to the South Coast and Cape.

FEBRUARY 2, 2007 SNOW REPORT

MASSACHUSETTS...

BRISTOL COUNTY...
NEW BEDFORD 3.7 830 AM 2/2 SKYWARN
NORTH DARTMOUTH 3.7 804 AM 2/2 PUBLIC
ACUSHNET 3.5 800 AM 2/2 SPOTTER...

PLYMOUTH COUNTY...
MANOMET 2.8 1206 PM 2/2 SPOTTER
WAREHAM 3.0 800 AM 2/2 MEDIA

RHODE ISLAND...

NEWPORT COUNTY...
MIDDLETOWN 3.5 1000 AM 2/2 SPOTTER
LITTLE COMPTON 3.0 705 AM 2/2 SPOTTER...

WASHINGTON COUNTY...
SOUTH KINGSTOWN 4.3 835 AM 2/2 SPOTTER
WESTERLY 4.0 1035 AM 2/2 SPOTTER
NARRAGANSETT 3.6 945 AM 2/2 UNIV OF RI

That is over and we are now watching snowfall move in from Pennsylvania at the present time. The snow in central PA, namely State College looks to be quite heavy right now. This looks to be pushing ENE and the heaviest part of the snow looks like it will be moving into south-central NH and southern Maine. Actually, all of Maine is under a Snow Advisory right now for a general 3-6", give or take, throughout the state. Southern and central NH is also under a Snow Advisory for moderate amounts of snow.

For SNE, I am thinking that snow will be heaviest the farther north you get. The opposite of this morning's snow, where it was heaviest on the South Coast where 2-4" fell, to my surprise. I'm thinking that southern NH will see the most snow in SNE and will generally see a widespread 2-4" of fluffy snow. There may be an isolated 5" amount. Further south, north of the Pike may see a fluffy 1-2", possibly 3" if we get real lucky. South of the Pike, a dusting to an inch looks possible. This will be a fast mover so once it starts snowing, or raining down on the Cape and then turn to snow, you will only have a window of about 4-6 hours of snow. 1-2 of those hours will feature snow with visiblities less than one mile. In southern Maine, snow may come down heavy enough to reduce visibility to under a 1/4 of a mile. The rush hour could become very tricky in Hartford, Providence, Worcester, Boston, and much of Maine. Drive with care and be safe.

Please report observations once the snow commences.

FINAL CALL

I did not really make any changes to my post last night. However, right now I am thinking that most of SE MA will see mostly rain out of this one. That rain line may sneek up all the way to Bedford by the time it ends. Where it does stay snow, there could be up to an inch, but that may be pushing it with the southern system. Areas to the north of the dashed line may get their snow Friday afternoon with an upper level storm pivoting through the area that may spark off a few snow showers that could add up to an isolated inch as well. This storm will help to "kick" the coastal low further out to sea. GFS and NAM still very divergent, but the NAM has been consistently showing this storm completely missing SNE for about 48 hours now and that has to be credited. So, there is a chance of a total bust and we all wake up to partly cloudy skies tomorrow morning, which wouldn't be that big of a deal as we have already gone through that yesterday morning. Don't expect much or you will be very sad tomorrow. Thats all for now. Next storm chance looked like Monday into Tuesday of next week, but all models have abandoned that solution and going with dry, but frigid conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.