Southern New England Weather

Tomorrow's Snow

2010-02-15T15:31:00.001-05:00

Wet Snowstorm Threatens to Bring Power Outages

2010-01-16T10:43:00.004-05:00

FIRST CALL (1/16/10): Hello guys. I know I haven't posted since 1876, but I just had to throw out my ideas on this potential snowstorm for MLK Day. I have been watching the news and they are all out butchering this potential storm and not giving it any justice. This storm has been progged on the models for over a week and it started as a potential out to sea storm. However, since then, we have seen this become more of a changeover threat. The computer models did have this storm come very far north and bring the changeover line well into central NH, but since then, it has cooled considerably. Therefore, the heaviest snow axis is much closer to the big cities of SNE, including Hartford, Providence, and especially Boston. Elevation will help with this storm, but latitude is equally as important in this setup. I am being bold with my forecast totals, but I will stand by them.

HEAVIEST SNOW (6-12") - Area outlined in the darker blue. This includes the cities of Worcester, Lowell, Fitchburg, Nashua and as close to Boston as Cambridge. This is where I think we will see the heaviest QPF and coldest air for the duration of the storm. The 12" amounts are generally reserved for the higher elevations of ORH County, but I would not be surprised to see a lollie of 10-12" closer to the coast as well. The snow will be extremely wet, especially closer to the coast and unelevated areas. This brings the threat of power outages for most. All it takes is about 2-3" of heavy, wet snow to start breaking tree limbs and once the limbs start breaking, they can easily bring down some power lines. So, the power outage threat remains high in this outlined area.

MODERATE SNOW (3-6") - This includes the cities of Hartford, Providence, Brockton, and Boston. Central VT and NH are also in line for a moderate snowstorm as they are removed from the heaviest QPF. South, the snow will start as rain and then mix with snow towards midnight before changing to all snow overnight. Most of the accumulation will fall between 2AM-10AM.

LIGHT SNOW (1-3") - This includes the South Coast and Cape. Most of the storm will fall as rain (up to 1") and then they may squeeze out an inch or two at the very end of the storm as the rain/snow line collapses towards the SE. It won't be a major player down here and the plows likely will not be needed here. Wet roads should be widespread.

So, it starts around 4-7PM tomorrow night from southwest to northeast. It should start as a mix north of the Pike and NW of 95. South and southeast of here, it should start as rain, but soon turn to a heavy, wet thumping snow later in the evening. It should start as snow and end as snow in southern NH and VT, but you will see less precipitation, so lighter amounts are forecasted there. All of this wraps up from NW to SE mid to late Monday morning. We will likely see light snow and flurries until early afternoon Monday, but for the most part, the storm will be over.

That's all for now. Enjoy the 45+ degree weather we have out there today!

First New England Hurricane in 18 Years...Danny is Born!

2009-08-26T10:31:00.003-05:00

Danny is born! May we be talking about our first New England hit in over 18 years since the landfalling on Hurricane Bob in 1991? I think this is our best shot in a long while. We have been watching the progression of the ULL near the Bahamas waiting for it to get its act together since about Sunday and Monday and finally, at 10AM today, the NHC upgraded this area of convection to a Tropical Storm by the name of Danny with sustained winds around its exposed center around 45 mph. The above shows the preliminary track for Danny as we head into the weekend. As you can see, it is a big threat for the east coast, especially the Northeast and New England coasts. The NHC's track would bring 'Danny' up over SE Mass/Cape as a minimal hurricane, a hurricane rocketing to the NNE probably near 30-40 mph, if not more. Once it gets into the more northern lattitudes, 'Danny' will quickly start to lose its tropical characteristics and become a hybrid storm over Maine. However, it will still slam areas with hurricane force winds from Portland, ME to Augusta. Depending on the track...Boston could be very close to the 'eye' wall in the worst case scenario and see very damaging winds in the city itself (glass skyscrapers). We will have to monitor this situation very closely and really see if 'Danny' can get his act together in the next 24 hours because all the potential is there and the pattern is shaping up for a real New England special. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best. This could be one we are talking about for years to come!

Warmer Times Ahead

2009-04-11T23:00:00.003-05:00

EASTER SUNDAY - Happy Easter everyone! Hope you are all having a good holiday. I thought I'd do a quick post since I had a spare moment. Well, it looks like the Winter of 2008 - 2009 is finally over after today's wet flakes in eastern Massachusetts and northern Rhode Island with a little potent coastal storm this afternoon. I think that will be our last flakes for a while here in SNE. Now we are all about getting these temperatures up and greening the grass and blooming the trees. It does not look like tomorrow will feel like a real mid-April day with highs only in the low 40s in SNE regionwide. There will also be a gusty NNW wind as well which will make temperatures feel like they are in the 30s all day. It will feel downright cold tomorrow for all the holiday festivities. Thereafter, we warm up through the 50s on Monday and then into the low 60s by midweek and through late week. We will have to watch a storm system scooting down to our south through the Mid Atlantic late week and if that moves further north than what is currently projected, then you can forget about low to mid 60s for Thursday. Then we are talking around 50 with rain. A lot could change with the forecast that far out, so stay tuned, but I think that we are in store for some good weather soon. Just hold out another 10-14 days for the real warmth.

Get That Snowblower Out!

2009-03-08T22:22:00.002-05:00

FINAL CALL: Get your engines ready folks. We have got ourselves an old fashioned daytime snowstorm on our way for all day tomorrow. The model output this evening is really bullish for significant snows east of ORH-FIT. Oddly, eastern MASS will do appreciably better than western MASS because the cold air is draining in on a NNE flow and it gets to eastern sections before western sections. That is why by noon tomorrow it should be snowing moderately to heavily in the city of Boston, while Albany, NY may be raining or having a wintry mix. You may not think that a snowstorm is on the way with temperatures this evening near 50F in Boston and in the 40s in the suburbs. However, that cold air will advect by the time this gets going here in eastern MASS by sunrise. I wouldn't be surprised if this started as a little rain in many locations, but it will quickly transition to all snow in many areas NE of Worcester and north of say, Brockton. This is when it could come down at a pretty good clip, perhaps 1"/hour snows for a while tomorrow afternoon.

Snowfall amounts will be greatest the further north and east you go. For the Boston metro area, I'd guess that anywhere between 4-7" will be the rule with a few spot 8" amounts in SE NH. Down over SE MA and the Cape, it is more of a 1-3"/spot 4" amount of snow if that inverted trough squeezes out a couple more inches than projected, which is a known bias of this type of setup. That is why I would not be surprised if some towns come closer to the higher end of my ranges, but for now, to be safe, I'd go with the lower end of the ranges for snowfall amounts. This is going to be a changeable situation and it will turn into a nowcast event to see where that rain/snow line sets up and how long it takes to come through a given area. Here is a rule I am going to use. If it is snowing in the city of Boston with a temperature of 33F or lower, then you can bet your paycheck that Boston will see 3"+ tomorrow. One computer model has Boston getting around 7" of snow tomorrow, with its nearby NW suburbs (Burlington-Newton-Melrose-Wilmington-Reading) getting up to 8-9" of snow. I do not think this will happen, but it is a possibility that higher amounts are realized in the greatest area of convergence in NE MASS, where the inverted trough snows could be quite intense as this system wraps up and moves its precipitation offshore.

School delays/cancellations? There will not be any need for delays. It will be a closed call or no call. I'm going to side with SCHOOL IS SESSION for most as many news outlets are forecasts light amounts, not ready to pull the trigger on a real significant snowstorm after a weekend of mid 60s Saturday and 60 on Sunday. But it's New England! Some schools will realize their mistake tomorrow afternoon in say the North Shore of MASS and southern NH, looking out their windows to visibility under a 1/2 mile in moderate to heavy wet snow and then go "Shoot!" Then we will start to see early dismissals. That's my call. Our next chance of snow comes Tuesday night/Wed. AM as a warm front moves through and then the rest of the week looks chilly with highs in the mid 30s into the weekend. Winter is not over yet!

It's a Fickle Month

2009-03-07T23:07:00.002-05:00

Sorry for not posting in a while. I have been really busy the past couple of months, but thought it was prudent to post the snowfall map for Monday's potential snowfall around these parts after we had such a great day today with a high temperature in the mid 60's in my backyard, with near 70 degree temperatures down in Falmouth this afternoon before a few evening rain showers north of the Pike dropping temperatures into the mid 40s which is where I think we will stay overnight. This will be a good launching pad for tomorrow with the little sun/brightening we see with highs getting back into the mid to upper 50s in SNE before a backdoor cold front will move in from NE to SW during the day, which will drop temperatures into the low 40s along the NE coast by later in the afternoon.

This all sets the stage for another packet of moisture to move into our area tomorrow night and Monday morning with sleet changing to snow north of the Pike on Monday and this snow could come down at a pretty good clip for a time during the late morning hours of Monday morning, especially in southern NH and eastern MA. For this reason, I have outlined an area where I believe 2-5" of snow will fall, despite our nearly early May high temperatures this afternoon. Once you get further into NNE, amounts will drop off and further SW the cold air will be less deep in the atmosphere, so you will likely be rain for a while before even changing to a sleety mix. You too, however, should change to a couple hours of wet snow later on Monday as well which could allow for an inch or two of accumulation even in CT and southern RI to the Cape. We will have to watch the models and satellites tomorrow, but for now this looks like a light event, but enough to be a shock to the system after people were out in shorts and t-shirts this afternoon. That is why they call March the most fickle month of the year for weather in SNE. It can be 70 one day and the next day it can snow. This month is no exception.

Sunday's Clipper

2009-01-17T13:57:00.002-05:00

FINAL CALL (1/17/09 @ 2PM): Here is the final call for tomorrow's snowfall. We have a clipper coming out of the GL today and this will spread snow into New England between 3-7AM west to east tomorrow morning. Warm air is going to get involved BOS S&E as rain/mix will be the predominant precip type on the Cape where only a C-1" will fall before the changeover and temps max in the mid-upper 30s. Boston is good for 1-3" before marine influenced air infultrates the area, but only 5-10 miles NW of BOS should stay mostly snow and that is where a good 3-6" of snow will accumulate. Maine will get the storm in the GOM as it blows up and spits out the heaviest QPF in that area. This will lead to a good 6-9" from this clipper before we turn our eyes to a developing coastal near the Del Marva. Recent information now takes this storm further out to sea, but it is so close that we should keep an eye on it. At the very least, some rain and snow showers will be on the Cape with the second storm. But for now, it looks like a near hit, but not close enough for anything significant.

Dusk 'til Dawn Winter Storm

2009-01-09T12:49:00.004-05:00

FINAL CALL (1/10/09 @ 8AM) Overnight the models shifted north with this storm and it now looks like the heaviest of snow will be north of the Mass Pike. I narrowed the bands of snow as well, instead of going with a regionwide 5-10" of snow, I have southern ME to southern NH and parts of northern MA in the band of heaviest snow with accumulations of 7-10". This now looks to be a widespread 4-8" of snowfall from Plymouth, MA to northern New England. South of Boston the snow will be denser and somewhat heavier as mixing could get as far north as BOS-ORH-HFD. North of here, we should stay all snow, but we have to be weary of this coming a bit further north. The Cape and Islands may even change to plain rain for a time during the peak of the storm. This will limit accumulations here to a lighter 2-5" of gloppy snowfall. Still starts from west to east 5PM to 8PM. Ends tomorrow morning and early afternoon around 10AM-1PM. Thats all for now. Enjoy.

FIRST CALL (1/9/09 @ 1PM) Winter storm watches are already up for all of SNE this afternoon. I am tending to agree with the NWS call for a widespread 5-10" of snow across most of SNE. The only wild card is the Cape and the Islands. This is where some mixing with rain could occur, at the very least the lowest ratio snows would be confined to with temperatures in the 31-34 degree range, while areas north to around BOS would see temperatures overnight Saturday in the upper 10s to low 20s, which would provide for light fluffy snowfall. Ratios will likely be in the 12 or 15:1 range here. The snow growth does look fair, but not the type of snow growth we saw with the NYE storm where we had a good deal of easily accumulable dendrites falling from the sky. The winter storm watch will likely be converted to a winter storm warning by late tonight if not by tomorrow morning for all of SNE and maybe even southern NH. I like my 5-10" call, but I have to add that areas along the CT/MA and RI/MA border to the Mass Pike would be the areas that would see the most snowfall from this storm. Right now I have them for a good 8-10", but there is the small possibility we get really good ratios and a tad bit more QPF and then I wouldn't be surprised if someone came in with a foot of snow from this one. Closer to BOS, I think Logan will likely pick up between 7-9", maybe more if we get this CCB band to really get cranking over eastern MA.

TIMING? This looks to be roughly a dusk 'til dawn type of snowstorm with most of the snow falling overnight Saturday. It should be a fun enjoyable storm. The snow will be light and fluffy and easy to move around Sunday morning as it tapers off from west to east. The sun will go to work on Sunday afternoon and black tops should be visible again by later Sunday and cleanup by local cities and towns should be coming to an end and then you will be able to enjoy the snowscape. It should arrive in western SNE between 3-5PM and quickly become moderate to heavy at times. Further east, I expect it to arrive last in the BOS metro area between 5-8PM. Snowfall rates should get up to 1"/hr during the peak of the storm, so travel overnight Saturday is going to be tough to say the least. I advise that if you can have a nice night in, just do it. Lots of motorists had a bad night this past WED with all the glazed over roads in the BOS metro area, I know I did and we don't need more claims to go to our insurance companies. So that's it for now.

One last note is that true ARCTIC air is coming for next week and by next THU and FRI, we could be talking about temperatures that struggle to make 15 degrees on THU and then stay in the single numbers on FRI. Get ready! It's coming. Overnight temperatures below zero for a lot of SNE next week? You betcha!

Messy Wednesday

2009-01-05T12:09:00.002-05:00

Wednesday is going to be one of those days where forecasts will likely bust horribly. Right now this is what I'm thinking. We all will start as a brief period of snow snow early Wednesday morning (3-5AM) and it will gradually transition over to a wintery mix south of the Pike. A quick 1-3" is possible areas south of the Pike, including the city of Boston before the switch to sleet and then freezing rain, rain Boston. The area outlined in red slash marks for northern CT, RI, interior SEMA, southern ORH Co. to the Springfield area are all in line to see healthy amounts of ZR after the switch from snow. This is the area where Ice Storm Warnings may need to be issued and where a 1/2" or more of ice accretion is possible. This will be enough to do some damage to trees and power lines, so we will need to be aware of isolated to scattered power outages in this area. The good news is that the latest information is lessening our ZR threat and it looks like it could be more of a sleet issue, which would be a saving grace. NW of 128 and north of the Pike, the changeover will take longer, so 2-5" of snow is forecasted before a switch to sleet. North of Concord, NH to Keene will be areas that receive mostly if not all snow out of this one. Areas that do stay all snow will likely pick up a healthy 6"+ of accumulation. The ski resorts will welcome this with open arms with the last couple bigger storms being primarily SNE storms. Thereafter, we look to go into the ice box later this week and for the foreseeable future. Be sure to shovel this wet snow Wednesday because if you don't it will be cemented to your driveway for a few weeks at least.

Winter Storm Wednesday?

2009-01-04T18:06:00.002-05:00

Wednesday's forecast is looking very difficult to really pinpoint at this time. There will be a storm coming out of the OH Valley and moving towards BUF, deepening along the way, but it will not be able to just shoot up the St. Lawrence River Valley because of our blocking to the north. This will allow a secondary to pop out somewhere between LI and SEMA. This transfer of energy will likely keep the flow near the surface from the NNE, thus keeping surface temperatures near or slightly below 32F for the duration of the event, especially north of the Mass Pike and W of 495. However, midlevels will not stay cold enough for all snow in these regions and infact warm to levels where the snowflakes will switch to rain drops. If we can keep the surface layer of cold deep enough, then we would be looking at lots of sleet, but I think it is going to be a shallow pool of cold air in these places hit hard by the DEC 11th Icestorm, thus giving more freezing rain and ice to areas that do not need it. It looks like a quick inch or two south of the Pike before a switch to sleet then rain. But north of the Pike looks good for 2-4" of snow then sleet and then a half inch of ice NW of 495. It could spell trouble. I'll have a map tomorrow.

FINAL CALL: NYE Snow Blitz

2008-12-30T19:21:00.002-05:00

FINAL CALL (12/30/08 @ 7PM): I am making my final call on this one tonight. This storm looks mighty explosive once it gets south of Long Island and gets its toes wet in that December bathwater off our coastline (Lower 40s). This storm is going to explode all the while and be bombing out near ACK (Nantucket) going sub 980 in a short 3 hour time frame. This will allow for winds to crank in excess of 50 mph, if not higher gusts. There could be 2-3 hours of blizzard conditions on the South Shore and Cape later tomorrow afternoon and evening as this thing gets going SE of NE. A good analog for this one may be December 9th of 2005. If you remember that one, a low pressure took a similar path this one will take and bombed out near Newport, RI, giving the Cape 100 mph wind gusts. A 105 mph wind gust was reported on Block Island that day. That was accompanied with a nice CCB band of snow (backlash) that dumped snow at the rate of 2-4"+ per hour! I am not saying this will happen, but there sure are signs that at some point tomorrow afternoon around 1PM or so, snowfall rates could be exceeding 2"/hr. with winds gusting over 30 mph here in eastern Mass, creating near blizzard conditions. I have two bullseye areas for the heaviest of snow. One is for the BOS metro area where I think a solid 7-12" of snow will fall. Lower if we do not get those intense snow bands move in, but higher if we do. Down on the Cape is where I think true blizzard warning criteria snows/winds could occur along with the heaviest of snow. Right now, it would not shock me if some on the Cape came in will over 10" of snow, not fluffy snow as in BOS, but heavy wet snow that will cake onto most everything and likely cause some power outages, along with winds of 55+mph. We will have to see and NOWCAST this storm as it unfolds to see if we do indeed get that bombing right off our shorelines. If we do, WATCH OUT! It will be BRIEFLY INTENSE with near blizzard conditions and white outs all across SNE, eastern SNE especially. Keep atuned to the forecast tonight before bed. Start time on the snow is around 8AM for eastern zones, more like 6AM west of ORH. Enjoy the evening.

New Year's Eve Snowstorm

2008-12-29T16:09:00.002-05:00

FIRST CALL (12/29/08 @ 4PM) Well, what looked like a clipper bringing a light 1-4" across much of central and northern New England just a day ago, now looks to be something much more important. The computer models are now showing this storm getting its act together in a big way for New Year's Eve day just south of Long Island. We could have a low undergoing 'bombogeneisis' in the afternoon on Wednesday as many are thinking of heading into the city for First Night Festivities. It could be a big mess. Right now this thing looks to start sometime after the morning drive into work if you're going to work. This is my very preliminary snowfall forecast which is a regionwide 3-6" for much of SNE. I am thinking that eastern areas, including just east of Worcester towards Boston, Plymouth, and the Cape will get the best of the storm as it deeply intensifies off the Cape later Wednesday. This should provide for an intense period of snowfall for these areas and high snowfall rates with light fluffy snow and temperatures falling through the teens to perhaps single digits by the stroke of midnight. It is going to be a frigid first night this year, so bundle up and bring the snow pants if your are courageous enough to brave the elements. Further north in ski country, more removed from the storm, a light 1-3", more likely on the lower end of the spectrum, will fall. This looks to be a SNE event, a quick hitting high impact event too. It should provide advisories to be hoisted for much of SNE and parts of CNE, if not winter storm warnings for eastern areas of SNE, including Boston and the Cape. I will have more on this tomorrow as tonight's and tomorrow's computer models are digested. Keep in touch.

Record Highs Tomorrow (63F BOS)

2008-12-27T19:34:00.002-05:00

Strong SW winds and a sunny break or two will allow for temperatures to skyrocket tomorrow. Some places could see temperatures approach 70F if we see an hour or two of extended sunshine, but I do not think that will be the case. Instead, many places will average highs in the low to middle 60s, but a few areas like KBED, NOR, KTAN, etc. may see highs that reach into the upper 60s. Tomorrow record highs are within reach for many cities. Boston's record high for the 28th of December is 63 degrees, KORH is only 60 degrees. I think both cities have an above average shot at breaking these daily high records. We do cool off going into Monday and Tuesday, but only in the mid 40s on Monday and near 40 degrees on Tuesday. We have a clipper threat on Wednesday, but most of our guidance takes the brunt of the snow north of Concord, NH. North of there, a good 2-4" or 3-6" may fall. If this system were to travel south of BDL-PVD-PLY, then metro BOS would be looking for a 2-4" snowfall, but right now, a few snow showers looks all that we will be able to muster given the current pattern. Thereafter, it cools down some more on Thursday that may set the stage for a healthy storm sometime next weekend. That's all for now. Enjoy the your springlike Sunday.

Frosty gets Nuked on Sunday

2008-12-26T13:53:00.002-05:00

Good afternoon all. Yesterday I did a post about the long range storm probabilities for early January. That storm still looks like a legitimate threat (Jan 2-5th timeframe). But looking closer in the short range we have got ourselves an amazingly warm day upcoming this Sunday. First we get through tomorrow's transition day with rain showers and raw temperatures in the 40s, but lows overnight Saturday will stay in the 40s, which will be a nice launching pad for Sunday's 'heat.' Right now it looks like 60F is a guarentee away from the water on Sunday even if the skies remained overcast with early showers ending in the morning, but now it looks like we may break out into some sunshine by late morning and early afternoon. This will allow temperatures to skyrocket on Sunday well into the 60s even with a healthy 6-12" snowpack in much of SNE away from the Cape and South Coast. All of that snow will likely melt on Sunday to just a few snow banks by early Monday morning and we will continue the melting process on Monday and Tuesday before it starts to cool down again later next week, setting up storm possibilities for the New Year. Enjoy the warmth, it could rival December 15th warmth when temperatures regionwide in SNE got into the mid 60s. May someone hit 70F on Sunday? I wouldn't bet on it with a deep snow cover still, but mid 60s to upper 60s are a real possibility. Get out there and enjoy it in between football games. (Pats/Bills @ 4)

Rumblings of an Early January Major Storm...

2008-12-25T13:37:00.002-05:00

Merry Christmas to all those who celebrate it out there today. Happy Hanukkuah as well. Well, I am moving away from the short range this afternoon and gearing more towards the long range as the next 5-7 days look rather quiet, but warm on Sunday with a few showers and temperatures near 60 degrees. Now, in regards to this storm threat, it looks like all the teleconnections out there are aligning towards a potentially major widespread event along the eastern seaboard sometime in the beginning of the New Year. Later next week, the NAO will be tanking as well as the AO. These are two ingredients that we must attain in achieving a major east coast winter storm. Now, I have the upper air map from the GFS for around hour 200. This would put us roughly to the January 3rd timeframe. In red, I outlined the intense blocking over Greenland. This is vital to keep a storm from leaving the coast and jetting past Newfoundland. This allows storms to 'stall' along the coast as we see with our larger winter storms like in February 2003 and February 2006. Starred in red is the 50/50 low, but is not in the most ideal location as well. To be in the most ideal location, you would want to see it off the coast of Newfoundland as marked with the black 'x.' The only caveat to a major east coast winter storm is highlighted in the Pacific. If you look at that arrow in blue I drew, it shows how fast the flow is into the Pac NW. This pounding jetstream into the Pac NW will like to speed storms across the country and it makes it harder for a storm to develop along the coast and ride the coast delivering snows from DC to Boston. We need more of a ridge in the western third of the country to make this setup just right. There are indications on a few of the ensembles that a +PNA will develop. Right now I would say that the chances of a big east coast storm are above average for the Jan 2-Jan 7 timeframe and we may just do it. Many of our LR computer models (GFS, EURO..) are in good agreement about a storm and the most important thing is the blocking. If we get the blocking, there will most certainly have to be something that jumps off the coast and can only move up the coast because of the flow. Storms that are forced to sit off the coast will explode and this is how we get our big winter storms. This is a pattern that we have not seen since Feb '06. We may wipe the slate clean regarding snowcover in SNE later this weekend with temperatures in the 50s/60s, but we may replenish it sooner rather than later.

One Out, Another In...

2008-12-20T09:33:00.002-05:00

FIRST CALL (12/20/08 @ 9AM): Good morning to everyone out there in SNE. We have a little bit of shoveling to do this morning. We are now under ocean effect snows in eastern Mass that extends out to past Worcester and NE CT. Many areas did very well last night, with generally between 8-10" with a few 12" reports here and there. Peabody, MA got 12" by 11PM last night. In my backyard, I got about 9". Boston's Logan Airport got 10.5", bringing them to over 13-14" for the month and the year. More snow is here today with the OES. Many areas in eastern SNE could pick up another coating to an inch, but areas inside 128, near Boston and especially on the South Shore may pick up another 2-5" of fluffy snow today, believe it or not, so that will undoubtedly bring many areas over 12" for the storm.

Now we turn to our next storm for tomorrow. The snow begins sometime between 5-8AM from south to north. It will start as all snow for everyone, even the Cape, before an abrupt changeover to rain there where there will be little or no accumulation. It will take longer to changeover on the South Shore, but an inch or two of slush cannot be ruled out before a transition to sleet then rain. Boston will changeover as well before getting anywhere between 3-6". If the winds come from the SE quickly, then I could see Boston just getting an inch or two before the switch. NW of Boston in its immediate NW suburbs may get 4" to as much as 7" of wet snowfall before ending due to dryslot or changing over for a brief time. Outside of 128, this will be all snow and a healthy storm at that. Expect a general area of 5-10", likely many 6-7" reports. The Whites into ME will do the best with many locales likely coming over a foot for the storm with near blizzard conditions expected.

Going to the Pats game? Good luck. The ride down to Gillette will feature snow covered roads if you are coming down from the north. It should snow there until about 11AM - 1PM before a changeover. This may be a situation where CBS shows what it looked like early this morning with heavy snow falling, but the game starts with good visibility and light to moderate rain. There is an outside shot that it stays mostly snow this far removed from the storm's center which will pass from south of Long Island to over the Cape Cod Canal. Foxboro will get a few inches of snow out of this tomorrow.

That's all for now. Enjoy the snow today and this OES today should be light enough that you should be able to get Christmas shopping done today, so head out to the stores and spend wisely.

FINAL CALL: Dec 13th 2007 Redux?

2008-12-18T10:58:00.004-05:00

UPDATED FINAL CALL (12/19/08 @ 8AM): I had to do it. I was looking over the models last night and they still seem to be printing out more QPF than originally thought, so I knew I'd push that 10"+ a bit further north, but I now have that into the southern NH area. SNH looks to receive the lower ends of the 10-15" call, but I would bet that in and around Boston, 12" will be a common number. Someone either on the North Shore (Beverly, Peabody, Danvers) or the interior South Shore (Brockton, Mansfield, Foxboro) will pick up more than the widespread 12" and pick up closer to 14-15" of snow. Some places could even pick up a little bit more. Winds are calm this morning, but will increase this afternoon once this storm gets cranking and that is why you see a red area outlined along the North Shore and South Shore to the Cape where NE winds will range from 20-30 mph sustained later this evening with gusts frequently over 35mph. Combined with the heavy snow lasting until between 9-11PM, blizzard conditions could be realized in these areas. It is an outside possibility as the NWS was contemplating putting up Blizzard Warnings for eastern Essex, Plymouth and Barnstable Counties, but decided not to hoist them. Either way, its going to be windy, snowy, and cold. One thing I left out yesterday was that the wind chills will be below zero tonight, so you may want to postpone any shoveling until tomorrow afternoon. Tomorrow will feature light snow most of the day, especially in eastern Mass and an additional 1-3" cannot be ruled out to what we pick up today/tonight. Then we get to the Sunday storm. This one could be an all out blizzard in ski country this time as SNE will likely change to rain during the course of this one. Northwest of 495 and north of Route 2 in Mass, however, it looks to stay mainly snow. A preliminary guess would put them in the 6-12" range. Closer to Boston, a few inches cannot be ruled out before the change to rain. I will post my first call on that one later today. You ready? It's going to be a fun weekend in SNE. Be safe, but have fun.

FINAL CALL (12/18/08 @ 11AM): We have got ourselves a major winter storm coming to our area for tomorrow. The winter storm watches will soon be upgraded to warnings and the plows will be seen in large numbers tonight before the storm. This storm is eriely similar to the December 13th storm of last year. Remember that one? It's going to be a wall of snow that comes into our area. The snow will start light, but within a half hour, it will be coming down at a moderate to heavy rate. Last year it took 5 minutes from commencement to heavy. This one will be very similar. Okay, lets do it. I've got my final call up and lets get through all the dirty details.

Starting time: 9AM to 11AM in BOS
Snowfall Rates: 1-2"/hr during peak
Heaviest Snowfall: 12NOON - 7PM
Accumulations: Heaviest along and south of the Mass Pike, warning grade snows up to Concord, NH

Another interesting note is that there will be ocean effect snow Friday night keeping areas along the North Shore, South Shore and Cape in the snow through Saturday morning. There could be some intense snow bands that come off the water and could give an additional 2-4" of snow after the main batch of 7-10"+. Snow showers and flurries will stick in SNE through Saturday until early Sunday morning when the next storm moves in with its initial bout of heavy snow. The snow on Sunday should start mid morning. There is a Pats game at 1PM against the Arizona Cardinals, so that should be fun to watch on tv. I think it should stay snow until about the 3rd or 4th quarter before any changeover to sleet/rain is thought about. I think W and N of Route 495, this will stay mainly snow for you and another 6"+ is within the realm of possibilities. Let's get through tomorrow first.

FIRST CALL: Friday 12/19 Snowstorm

2008-12-17T12:33:00.003-05:00

FIRST CALL (12/17/08 @ 1PM): We get one storm done with and the next one is on its heels. Recapping this mornings snow/ice, many areas north of the Pike picked up between 2-3" of snow with a glaze of freezing drizzle on top of that. Groveland, MA picked up 4" being the jackpot. The freezing drizzle will taper later this afternoon and temperatures will hold steady in the lower 30s.

Now looking towards this one, it looks like a biggie. It will come out of the lower Great Lakes and travel south of Long Island. It will not be an intense low pressure, but it will be moisture packed and with cold temperatures, much of SNE will have very high 15:1 or 20:1 ratios, which will really add to the snowfall totals. In my first call above, I may actually be playing this storm down with a 6-12"+ call. Some areas by the looks of it this afternoon could wind up with between 12-18" of snowfall, especially in northern CT, NW RI. I will make my final call tomorrow morning/afternoon and will upgrade, or downgrade as necessary. That is all I have to say about this storm. It starts sometime during the morning on Friday and lasts until about 8PM with its heaviest snows, but light snows should continue through Saturday morning and the Cape could wind up with a couple additional inches Friday night and Saturday with ocean enhancement turning to OES. I will go out on a limb and say that is not at all impossible for someone to come in just shy of 20" with this one! Have a good day.

Stormy Times Set In

2008-12-16T13:57:00.002-05:00

I thought I would do a brief post this afternoon about the prospects of a very stormy and snowy time upcoming for SNE starting tonight. Snow is expected to develop late tonight after midnight and if you want to get the full details and amounts on this storm, just look down one post with a detailed map and main points about the storm in the blog post. After tomorrow's light bout with snow, we will have another storm come in after a break in the action of Thursday. Friday's storm looks to be rather important as snow will streak in from the Great Lakes and instead of turning into a Great Lakes Cutter, the low pressure will be forced south of SNE as an Arctic high pressure stands its ground. Right now it looks like this has the potential to dump a solid 6"+ regionwide on Friday. It would be a quick hitting intense snow storm, with mixing issues south of BDL-PVD-PLY. North of here, there could very well be 6"++ of snow on Friday. That leads us to a break on Saturday before another bout of snow on Sunday. We are going to take it one at a time, but it looks like Boston's prospects of a white Christmas are nearly at 100% this year.

UPDATED TO FINAL CALL: Dec 17th Snow/Ice

2008-12-15T19:14:00.003-05:00

FINAL CALL (12/16/08): Well, I hope you enjoyed your mid 60s today as we are going to be heading deep into winter in the next few days. There are three legitamite threats for snow in SNE during the course of the next seven days! The one I am going to talk about is the Wednesday morning commute snowfall potential. To give a little lead up to the storm, tonight a band of shower will push through the area as a frontal passage. Any leftover showers by tomorrow morning will leave a few snow showers about the area, especially south of the Pike, but do not expect any accumulation with these. The afternoon features a lull in the action before snow redevelops from south to north tomorrow night late into early Wednesday morning. It only looks like a short 6-8 hour period of snowfall for SNE, longer in CNE where snow amounts reflect this. Overall, the South Coast and Cape will have mainly rain, while areas along the Pike into BOS pick up a mix of sleet and snow turning to light rain later Wednesday afternoon for 1-2", maybe a spot 3" amount in the pink shading. N&W of here we will have a solid 2-4" event, just west of Route 128 and I-95. This could prompt an Advisory level event for many in the blue area, with the highest amounts of snow in the Lakes Region, where spot 5" amounts are possible.

TIMING: Early WED AM - Early WED PM, tapers from W to ENE.
DURATION: Short; likely only 6-8 hours max
DELAYS: Possible WED AM N&W of BOS, more likely 128 N&W
ROAD CONDITIONS: Wet SE, Slick NW

So, that is all for now. I am becoming pretty confident about this forecast and will upgrade this one to either my final call later tomorrow or if I need to make any changes after tonight's model runs, I will do so tomorrow. Enjoy the last few hours of mild December weather. It looks as if winter is finally going to make it into SNE.

Snow & Ice Concerns this Week in SNE

2008-12-15T12:31:00.005-05:00

We actually have the possibility of seeing some snowfall in SNE coming up tomorrow night and into Wednesday. The first threat of snow comes tomorrow as morning highs near 45 plummet into the lower 30s by the end of the afternoon towards evening. It looks like some areas may see their rain showers transition over to snow showers before the precipitation ends sometime tomorrow night. There could be a small accumulation south of the MA/NH border with tomorrow night’s light snow, but I wouldn’t go more than a skim coating at this point. Our next threat comes on Wednesday with another disturbance coming through. It looks like warm air may get involved in this one and change places south of the MA/NH border to rain/sleet and especially south of the Mass Pike. It looks like areas north of the Pike and west of Route 128 may actually pull out a 1-3” snowfall out of this one coming Wednesday morning lasting until the early afternoon hours on Wednesday. That will not be our only wintry type of threat this week as there will be another one on Friday. This one also looks to be a messy mix in SNE as warm air will get infiltrated into the storm as it heads toward BUF before redeveloping somewhere south of the Pike and moving either between PLY-BOS-POR. A further southerly track would yield more snow and ice north of the Pike as a track to POR would change a brief bit of snow over to all rain, even with the Arctic high over us in southern Quebec. Right now I would say that there is the threat for light accumulating snows north of the Pike with this one as well, likely changing to all rain S&E of Route 495, while turning to sleet and freezing rain in areas that do not need any more ice. This would not be a crippling historic icestorm like last Thursday’s, but it would be enough to create a mess on the roads. There is still plenty of time to iron out those details, so until then enjoy the 60+ degree weather we are experiencing this afternoon.

NOTE: I will be posting a snowfall map later this afternoon/evening regarding the snow/ice potential coming up for WED AM. Like I said, areas north of the Pike are fair game for a couple inches, while areas in southern and central VT/NH/ME may wind up with several inches.

Awful Pattern!

2008-12-14T15:51:00.002-05:00

Well, if you like snow and cold, do not look at this thread. It is going to be downright April like come tomorrow with highs getting into the upper 50s to around 60 with clouds developing later in the afternoon. Then we will see rain shower develop from south to north on Tuesday. Some of these rain showers may bring a little sleet/freezing rain to areas north and west of 495 later Tuesday is what the areas hit hard by the ice storm Thursday night do not need. It does not look like a lot of ice, but enough to be a pain. Then a warm front goes through and we warm up for all rain here in SNE on Wednesday with any snow confined to NNE. We keep rain and showers and mild temperatures through until the end of the week when one final storm will cut north of the Great Lakes and bring in some mild air for all. Right now it looks like we could be pushing 50 with rain on Friday. There could be some low level cold air around because of a HP parked in northern Maine on Friday, so we could have areas north of the Pike stuck in the 30s with some ice confined to higher elevations. South of here, it could be pushing 60 degrees once again. Again, this is a miserable pattern for snow in SNE and it looks to continue.

Winter's One Day Return then Springtime

2008-12-11T22:08:00.003-05:00

I am going to make a short post this evening and say that our rainstorm will finally come to an end tomorrow morning and early afternoon. Temperatures will be a dozen degrees warmer tomorrow with highs in the 40s. We have a one day bout of ARCTIC air on Saturday with highs around 20, staying in the teens west with lows in the single digits. We warm up on Sunday before a high moving off the EC pumps in the warm air on both Monday and Tuesday. Highs will be well into the 50s to around 60. Snow? Well parts of Louisiana to MS picked up 4-8" today, New Orleans got an inch, Boston will continue to wait. None for at least the next week.

Another Close Call for SNE

2008-12-10T11:04:00.003-05:00

It seems like SNE cannot catch a break this winter season. It seems as if a storm will move too far out to sea or it will travel too far west to keep the cold air in for the duration of a storm system. Tomorrow we will have the latter. A storm will travel right over SNE and instead of todays mild rains in the 60s, we will have a very cold rain with highs likely staying in the 30s. Outside of Route 495, there will likely be some freezing rain that could prompt the NWS to issue Ice Storm Warnings for as far east as Worcester County. Some places may see ice accretions of greater than 0.5", which can do some serious damage. Closer to the coast, we will have a cold rain in the lower to middle 30s. If you want to find snow, you will have to travel very far north and west. Even where it is totally cold enough to snow, we will only have limited QPF in these regions, so snowfall to the tune of a few inches is all that looks possible. A few areas may wind up with closer to a half a foot or a little bit more, but they will be the exception rather than the rule. After this storm system which wraps up on Friday as a chilly rain in SNE, some snow in the mountains, we will return to seasonably cold weather with highs in the mid to upper 30s for Saturday and Sunday before we warm up well into the 40s to near 50 for most of next week it appears. Any snow chances look to remain outside the 10-14 day time period, so this winter is dragging its legs in getting started once again here in SNE. For many areas, it has been nearly 10 months since we have seen a snowfall of 3"+. It looks like that streak will continue some more. Sadly, if January forecasts turn out to be right, we could be getting close to one year without a storm delivering 3"+. It seems absurd, but the pattern just doesn't look like it wants to set up for snow in the East this year. Maybe March can pull us through, but by then, who really wants snow to begin with?

Lots of Rain This Week!

2008-12-09T10:07:00.002-05:00

This week will feature two washout days. The first one is coming tomorrow. The temperatures tonight will actually spike after sunset and we will only have morning temperatures tomorrow morning in the mid 40s for lows. That will allow for afternoon temperatures to really skyrocket into the upper 50s to perhaps low 60s over southeastern Mass. Right now in regards to rainfall, I am thinking that many areas will come in just over one inch of liquid from this one before pushing out later tomorrow night. It will drag in some colder air for Thursday as highs will only manage the mid-upper 30s, but don't let that one day of cold fool you. The cold will be short lived as another storm will move west of our area and bring warm air all the way up to Maine once again. Right now it looks like Friday will be warmer than tomorrow and if you asked me last night what the forecast was for Friday I would have told you cold and heavy snow. Just goes to show how quick to change the computer models are this time of year. So, for now, I am going for low to mid 60s with heavy rain, amounting to two inches or more on Friday. I am thinking that the further NW you go, it will get colder, but I do not think that anyone sees snow out of this one here in SNE, maybe at the very onset we will see a brief period of snow/sleet, but it would all be washed away by such warm temperatures anway. That pushes through on Friday night and that leads us to a chilly but manageable weekend with highs in the mid 30s on Saturday warming to around 40 degrees on Sunday. In the long range, next week looks to be mighty mild with some sunshine this time. I am going for afternoon highs to soar well into the 40s with some sunshine Monday next week and we may squeak out some 50 degree readings or better by midweek next week. So far, this winter has been pretty tame.

Clipper Storm Brings Light Snows to SNE

2008-12-06T12:53:00.002-05:00

Good Saturday morning to all. We have a clipper storm that is pushing through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley this morning and will be developing a secondary off the northern NC coast, but will move too far out to sea to deliver a knock out punch to SNE. It will however, bring an inverted trough into the area that will set off some snow showers and periods of light to occaisionally moderate snowfall starting very late tonight and early tomorrow. It brings in enough snow to whiten the ground and cause some slick driving in spots. The first snows will start when temperatures are in the upper 20s in SE MA, and mid 20s in NE MA. So you can expect the snow to start sticking the roads, so be careful if you are out driving way late tonight and early tomorrow morning, between 3-5AM. The snow will be heaviest in the morning hours, if you want to call snow falling with visibilities ranging between 1-3 miles, occaisionally coming under 1 mile. Overall, on the South Shore, excluding the Cape, expect about a slushy inch when all said and done. Futher north in towards the 128 belt out to Worcester, expect a good 1-2", but there may be a spot 3" amount in northern Essex county and SE NH. The heaviest of the snow will fall in Downeast Maine, where they will get a more matured storm and this will deliver a healthy 3-6", but a few places especially near the tip of Downeast Maine may see a spot 6"+ amount. I wouldn't be surprised to see a local 8" or 9" amount up there. Then into Canada, they will get slammed with 1-2', blizzard conditions. That's all for now. I will try and come up with a five day later on this afternoon/evening. Have a good day.

"It's a Clipper Skipper!"

2008-12-03T19:32:00.003-05:00

Good evening everybody. I am writing this post tonight with the news that snow is back in the forecast for real, for SNE. We have been watching this threat of a clipper redeveloping, alla Miller B, for Sunday. Well, after on and off again model runs yesterday, all things are starting to align for at least a light to moderate snow event for much of eastern LI and SNE, heading into ME for the end of this weekend. Above, I have posted a printout of what the 18z GFS ensembles were showing. They are much more robust and dig the H5 pattern much more so than the OP 18z GFS run. That is a red flag in our business for the OP runs to start shifting west, which is good for more QPF and snow in our backyards. The other computer model we look at religiously is the EURO. This computer model has been showing a pretty good to solid SNE hit for the past few runs since yesterday. It is looking more and more likely like our forecasts will start turning much snowier come 11PM tonight, if not by 12 NOON tomorrow for our Sunday storm. It is still a little far away to peg snowfall amounts, but preliminary amounts would throw a few inches of snow for much of SNE into Downeast Maine. A few inches can mean anything above 2" and less than 6". We will have to watch and see if the trend stays our friend tonight at 00z on both the GFS and the EURO and I do not see why it would not. We are starting to enter the EURO's hammertime range and its been locking this storm in since the get go. We just need the GFS to jump on board (QPF wise) as it started with the placement of the H5 low at 18z. Now we just need it to go fully come 00z tonight. With the EURO, we just need it to stay status quo and by Friday afternoon, this site will be throwing up snow maps for snowfall that will actually fall in our backyards and not 500 miles away.

Welcome to December!

2008-12-01T14:34:00.002-05:00

Welcome to meteorlogical winter folks. You wouldn't know it by the temperatures out there this afternoon. Highs across much of SNE this afternoon are in the upper 50s to low 60s with abundant sunshine. The mild weather is going to stick around for the next few days, but we will not be as warm we are today. How about upper 40s to around 50 degrees with sunshine both tomorrow and Wednesday. Then we notch up those temperatures some more on Thursday with highs getting back into the mid 50s, but the tradeoff will be some rainfall. I am not expecting a washout Thursday by any means, but there may be a few scattered light rain showers later in the afternoon and evening here in SNE. These showers will usher in some real cold air for later in the week. By Friday we will only have highs in the mid 30s and by Saturday we will be struggling to get out of the upper 20s for highs in Worcester, and struggling to reach 32 degrees in the city of Boston. Snow chances still look minimal, but yesterday many of us saw the first flakes so we do not need to worry about being shut out going into the first and second weeks of December.

So what can we expect during the month of December? The average December brings Boston an average of 6.6" of snowfall. Last winter Boston nearly broke the December snowfall record with 26.9" of snow for the month of December alone. You do not need to go back too far to see a rather unimpressive December as in 2006, Boston only recorded a measely 0.4" of snow. In '98 and '99, Boston did not even record more than a trace of snow. Most winters will feature snowfall in the 4-7" range. Boston's NW suburbs do better, likely 6-10" on average. Temperatures average in the mid 40s early on in the month, dropping into the mid 30s by the end of the month. This December looks to be colder than normal (-3 to -5 dept) with equal chances of precipitation. Overall, I think Boston will see average snowfall for this month, but all it takes it one good storm and we are well above normal. That is why long range snowfall forecasting is so unprofessional, in my opinion. That's all for now. Enjoy the April like weather we have this afternoon.

Snowfall Potential 11/30 to 12/1, Not for SNE

2008-11-29T18:44:00.002-05:00

Another winter storm is taking shape this weekend and should deliver a healthy dose of wintery precipitation for a large portion of the country starting tomorrow. Snow will break out across Chicago to Detroit and up into Ontario all the while NNE will start as a brief period of snow (1-3") before changing over to a mix and eventually all rain. Here in SNE, we may have a few sleet pellets mixed in at the onset around 4PM tomorrow afternoon, but that will quickly go to rain and on Monday we will actually be quite warm with temperatures soaring into the lower to middle 50s. The snow will be confined well to our west and northwest. The big winners with this one look to be Chicago up through Lower Michigan and into southern Ontario. Here a good 3-6" of snowfall, with isolated amounts of 6"+ are possible, especially in Ontario. We will have to wait our turn here in SNE. Long range still looks pretty poor for snowfall potential, FWIW. It will happen eventually though.

Perfect Weather Day for Thanksgiving

2008-11-26T17:39:00.003-05:00

Turkey Day still looks like a winner, weatherwise. Morning temperatures will be coming up through the 30s and then be around 40 for 10AM football games. Highs tomorrow afternoon should get into the mid 40s here in SNE, colder north. It should remain totally dry as well. That leads us into Black Friday and there will be no weather issues trying to get to the mall for good deals. You'll need a winter coat with temperatures in the 40s but it won't be brutally cold. Rain should hold off until after midnight as a few wet snow flakes may be mixed in north of Route 2 and in the Worcester hills and SW New Hampshire. We stay mild through the weekend, and then our attention turns toward another storm developing in the South and see how it interacts with a trough developing over the east and see exactly where this thing wants to track. Right now, I would favor an inland track with may the initial stages of the storm starting as a brief wintry mix here in SNE, but quickly turning over to rain and with a southerly flow we will get back to around 50 degrees during the peak, very much like the situtation yesterday. We will have to wait and see how that works out, but right now it looks like another SNE rainstorm. Areas North that saw snow yesterday could see another wet accumulating snow again before any changeover. It's still 4 days away so there is time to change, but this is trending towards another rain maker. Warm at that.

Thanksgiving Day Forecast 2008

2008-11-25T10:15:00.002-05:00

Hello all. We are just a couple days away from Thanksgiving! This year has flown by. Christmas music has already taken over two Boston radio stations and we are only a few days away from the official start of the Holiday shopping season, Black Friday. It does not look like any weather problems are in store for Turkey day or even Travel Day tomorrow once we get through today's heavy rains and gusty winds. After our 1-3" of rainfall today, then it is clear sailing to the holiday. This Thanksgiving is going to feature seasonable temperatures for late November, not too cold nor too warm. Last Thanksgiving had temperatures in the 50s to around 60, but this one will feature temperatures mainly in the 40s. If you are heading to your local town's high school Thanksgiving Day game, expect temperatures to be in the low 40s for 10AM kickoffs. We will warm into the mid and upper 40s by the time you sit down to eat your turkey feast and then slide back to around 40 for your afternoon nap and football watching activities. The weather is going to be nice and calm so it won't be the reason for a bad Thanksgiving. We stay quiet for the long holiday weekend with maybe a storm threat for the end of the period around Sunday, heading into December 1st. That is so far out, I won't go into any detail. Let's just get through today's rain and our Thanksgiving holiday. I hope everyone has a nice, restful, happy Thanksgiving!

It's Snowing Somewhere; Just not Here

2008-11-23T21:59:00.002-05:00

Another winter storm is about to take shape over the eastern part of the country and give a widespread area of snowfall, just not spreading any of this snowfall into SNE or even CNE for that matter. There is a large swath of a light 1-3" of snowfall from southern WI through southern lower MI into western NY. It will be all rain here in SNE as we will be on the warm side of the storm, but rainfall of 1-2" or more is quite possible. Winds will also be strong close to home with gusts of up to 55 mph possible on the Cape on Tuesday morning and even as high as 45 mph in Boston. It's going to be a stormy time of it here, but it should clear out for the busy travel day on Wednesday. Maybe a flurry later Tuesday night before that, but nothing major here. There are rumblings of a storm later next weekend, but you guessed it, looks like another warm one.

Record Cold to Rain...Wouldn't have it any other Way

2008-11-22T10:33:00.002-05:00

Today, Saturday is going to be the coldest day since last winter here in SNE. Highs will struggle to get into the upper 20s to around 30 and yet in just a couple short days we will be seeing rain. We start to moderate tomorrow with highs getting back into the upper 30s which will feel warm after today with wind chills in the 10s. We moderate more on Monday which is a generally dry day, but cloudy with highs in the 40s before rain moves up into our area from the south and gives us a nice 1-2" soaking on Tuesday morning before ending sometime in the early afternoon. Then the storm tries to cutoff from the main jet stream and wander around for a few days eventually exiting off our coast later next week. By around Thanksgiving it tries to organize an area of snow showers into New England, but most look to stay in CNE and NNE. I kept the threat of a few flurries in the forecast, but SNE will not see any noteworthy snow unless that cutoff redevelops offshore and brings in some snow off the Atlantic, which looks highly unlikely. No big threats out there yet, but soon.

Bundle Up!

2008-11-19T17:57:00.002-05:00

The forecast is staying unseasonably cold for the foreseeable future with storm chances starting to enter the picture as well. The next four days (Thu - Sun) look to be cold and dry with the coldest day being Saturday. Dress warmly if you are going to the tree lighting ceremony Saturday night at Fanueil Hall. It now looks colder today than it did yesterday for Saturday night. By 6PM, temperatures could be falling into the mid 20s after afternoon highs that struggle to reach 30 degrees. Winds will be quite active as well with wind chills in the teens most of the day with windchills likely falling into the upper 0s by the end of the tree lighting ceremony in Boston. It is almost going to be dangerously cold, so if you are going, be sure to dress extremely warm with multiple layers.

Now we get to talk about the storm threat for early next week, the busiest travel week of the year for Thanksgiving. Right now models are hinting at some type of storm somewhere in the in the eastern third of the country. Where this storm sets up is still a question. Yesterday models were taking this storm up through the Great Lakes, but have pushed that storm track further east with today's models runs. One model the GFS keeps the storm heading into western NY as a decaying storm that never transfers its energy to the coast, so it stays in the form of rain up and down the East Coast, with a band of heavy rain that abruptly ends before WNW winds usher in some colder air. The other reliable model, the EURO, brings the storm right off the NJ Shore, but the trough is so negatively tilted that it ushers in warm air from the Atlantic to give all of New England a SE flow that turns any frozen precipitation over to all rain, even in Caribou, ME! Both scenarios look pretty suspect to me. Right now I like the EURO better, but the fact that it gives Philadelphia to NJ a snowstorm, while keeping Caribou, ME all rain through the entire storm is a bit suspect to me. That means we will have to see what the models bring tomorrow. Right now this is a threat that is 5-6 days out, so we should have a better handle tomorrow, and especially Friday afternoon. Check back in then.

Coldest November Stretch Since 2000

2008-11-18T20:33:00.003-05:00

A little research was done and we have found that this particular cold stretch that we are going to go through is the coldest since November 22-25, 2000. That was 8 years ago! Just for your information, that winter was a mighty cold and snowy winter for SNE, so that could be a little prelude to what may come later on. To discuss this pattern, we are still in for a very cold stretch with the cold 'peaking' right around Saturday with highs struggling to get over the freezing mark. The tree lighting at Fanueil Hall is Saturday night so I'm still thinking you should dress in layers and prepare for temperatures in the 20s during the festivities. We start to moderate going into the end of next weekend with a clipper type system that may try to get its act together off the coast, so right now we could get some rain/snow showers into SNE later Sunday into Monday, but for now I am going for a small chance (20 percent) with the possibility of something more important developing for that time period. The computer models have been abomidable so far this year, so best way is to play everything conservative until we start to see some agreement with our major computer models. (GFS/EURO/UKMET/GGEM to name a few) Right now there are all on their own with next week's storm possiblity with one saying no storm, another saying a Great Lakes cutter with warm showery rains, and another bringing some significant snow to parts of New England. So, again, I am going to play this forecast conservative and not get excited about an event until it is more like 3-4 days out, not 6-7, I learn that lesson the hard way every single winter. This year, lesson learned in mid November, usually doesn't happen until mid December. We are off to an early start.

Snowfall Map for Tomorrow 11/18

2008-11-17T14:24:00.003-05:00

I thought I would post a little map for the season's first flakes for a few of us. Usually I will not dedicate a whole post for flurries, but since I've got the new mapmaking program, I would give it a shot. Expect snow flurries up to say just SE of Hartford, Providence and up to Taunton/Brockton to the coast. No accumulation, but the outer Cape (Chatham) and maybe even Nantucket may see a skim coating, perhaps. Nothing big, just had time to create this map. Hopefully I will be getting tired of making maps later on this winter. We can only hope.

Cold and Dry through the Week

2008-11-17T13:30:00.002-05:00

The cold is still on, but there are no snow chances this week. Well, there are a few minor slight miniscual snow threats to our region, but most of us won't even see a flake. The first chance comes from a clipper storm that tries to get its act together off our coast later tonight and tomorrow. As it tries to develop close to the coast, heading SE all the way, it may try to bring some snow flurries up to the Cape and the Islands. I am just talking about a scattered flurry or two, by no means accumulating snow or even a period of light snow, just a five minute, hey look if you squint hard enough, its snowing! That kind of snow. Then that clipper brings in some even colder air for Wednesday and Thursday through Friday and Saturday, with SNE bottoming out in the low 30s on Friday with highs likely struggling to get over the freezing mark. Saturday will feature a few more clouds, but will be another dry and cold day for the tree lighting in Fanueil Hall with the festivities starting around 5:30PM. An early look at that shows temperatures in the mid 30s for 4PM, likely falling to around freezing by 6PM, then falling through the 20s, likely only in the mid-upper 20s in Boston by 10PM Saturday night. The 'burbs will be getting really cold the end of this week with overnight lows getting down into the lower 10s in the colder areas to upper 10s in many other suburbs away from the urban centers. We got the cold, now we just need the snow to get into the holiday mood, just my opinion. No snow threats out there, yet.

Right to January-like Cold, Bitter Winds

2008-11-16T10:17:00.002-05:00

Last night around 8PM, Boston reached a steamy 70 degrees ahead of the squall line that drenched many that were out and about last night around midnight. I know I was soaked. But that August like weather is now over and we are going to be getting more like January now. This is the first 5 day where I put 30s across the board. If I didn't know any better, I would think that this is a forecast in early January or February. But its a mid November forecast. Tomorrow will be a cold day with highs right around 40 degrees, with the hills staying in the mid-upper 30s for highs. Worcester, that's for you. Then we step down a little bit for Tuesday and a clipper will head to our south, decaying along the way and likely only get some clouds up to the Pike and maybe a few flurries on the Cape, but that would be about it. After that there is no real chances for snow/storms as most looks to head out to sea in the fast flow and develop too little, too late for SNE.

There is another clipper that looked good last night on the computer models, namely the 00z GFS, which had a stripe of a couple inches of snow in NW NJ through NYC, but this morning has totally lost it. That would have barely scraped the South Coast with a few snow showers, so its not that big of a loss for us. The good thing is that we are going to stay in this below to much below weather pattern (temperature) for at least the next 45 days! We will have a day here and there that spikes up to around 50, but for the most part, we are in this for the long haul. Enjoy!

Rainy, Mild Weekend Leads to Cold and Snow Early Week

2008-11-13T18:18:00.002-05:00

I hope the title didn't frighten you too much with the mention of snow into the forecast for Monday night and Tuesday of next week. I am only talking about a few flurries, but the first flakes of the season for metro Boston always deserve their own headline. To get there, we are going through a few showers tonight with rising temperatures for the Pats v Jets game tonight at 8:15. Temperatures should rise from the mid 40s to upper 40s through the course of the game with morning temperatures coming up to over 50 degrees in Boston early tomorrow morning. Tomorrow morning will feature lots of clouds and a few showers, but if that sun breaks out, we are off to the races in terms of high temperatures tomorrow. Right now we are easily talking about upper 50s for much of SNE, but if that sun breaks out then we are easily talking about low to mid 60s tomorrow afternoon in much of SNE. We all will rise into the mid 60s on Saturday with a gusty southerly wind and rain, heavy at times. All said and done, we are looking at perhaps up to an inch of water out of this storm system for Saturday before it clears out overnight on Saturday. Sunday will be a much cooler day, but temperatures will fall 15-20 degrees only to return to more normal temperatures. The shoe drops early next week temperature wise with highs not getting out of the upper 30s all the way to the coastal plain on Monday with a few flurries in the air. Most look to be over western New England as blowoff from the Lakes' snows, but a few lonely flurries may make it into the greater Boston area on Monday night, but we have a slightly better chance to see our first flakes here in metro Boston on Tuesday. I am not talking about accumulating snow, but just a few flakes in the air to get us into that Holiday spirit as the Fanueil Hall Christmas tree lighting is on the 20th I believe. Believe it or not, Thursday night has the slightest chance of seeing some snowfall as well, so wouldn't that be nice to get us all into that Holdiay spirit. It will definitely be very cold next week and the winter parkas and warm weather gear will be needed most definitely. More on this changing weather pattern tomorrow and our chances of our first snow next week.

Winter's March Southward Toward Lower 48 Marks Cold Next Week With Snow Chances?

2008-11-12T21:27:00.002-05:00

After we get past tomorrow night's cool rain and Friday morning's showers, and then finally one last push of mild rain on Saturday afternoon into early Sunday we will be introducing ourselves to the coldest air since last winter into SNE. We are talking about temperatures later next week that will be featuring Decemberlike cold. Early in the week, Monday and Tuesday, temperatures will likely range from the mid 40s on Monday to low 40s on Tuesday before we dip into the 30s here in SNE, and even Boston on Wednesday and we could stay in the 30s to around 40 for about a 7-10 or more day time period before we slowly warm up for a brief time before the motherload of cold air and storminess moves in the first week of December, as it looks right now. First, we have tomorrow. Tomorrow looks like it starts off dry with maybe some early morning sunshine before it fades with afternoon temperatures in the mid 40s. Then the rain will move in tomorrow night and it will stay raw with temperatures holding steady in the upper 30s to lower 40s before we warm up on Friday into the 50s and could be into the 60s on Saturday and perhaps 50s on Sunday before cooling down bigtime later next week for the long haul.

There are also a few storm chances in this period. The first is with a clipper trying to redevelop offshore, but looks like it will be too little too late with most of the storm over the fishes. This would be in the day 6-7 time period, namely Nov. 18-19th. Then our second storm chance comes on the Nov. 20 to 22nd time period that would be a coastal type of storm. However, these are so far out in the future, I am not even going to get into any detail. All I will say about the Nov. 20-22nd storm is that there has been a signal for a coastal storm in the time period for a few days now and has not backed off, yet. So...as always, stay tuned for further updates. One thing is for sure, wintertime cold is only a few days away and real snow threats for SNE are starting to pop up and they are no longer in fantasy range.

Chilly Week Ahead, Not Cold Enough Though (White)

2008-11-09T21:02:00.002-05:00

Our Sunday turned out to be a great day with mostly sunny skies and highs getting up to near 60 degrees in much of SNE. However, we will start to cool down now and this week is just a subtle preview of what we could be dealing with in about two weeks. Tomorrow we will return to seasonable weather with highs around 50 degrees, which will feel chilly after having the last few days in the 60's, since last Wednesday or Thursday I believe. We will continue to bottom out going into Tuesday and Wednesday with highs only in the mid and upper 40's. The one consolation with this will be the sunshine, but the sunshine this time of year is really becoming weaker and weaker and by 2pm, it feels like we are already starting to get dark around here, even though I know the sun doesn't set until about 4:20pm. We bottom out on Thursday ahead of the next storm system that will cut to our west and bring in some milder air for next weekend after Friday's rain showers. Thursday will be tough to get temperatures out of the upper 30's in Worcester with low lining areas staying in the lower 40's or right around 40 degrees. Our next storm system moves in Friday with RAIN showers as we warm up with SW flow. We will warm back into the 50's for next Saturday, but this warmup will be even briefer than the one we just went through. We are only about 10-14 days away from seeing some of the coldest air since last winter. Computer models this afternoon brought highs in the upper 20's to lower 30's for around Thanksgiving week, starting on Monday and continuing the cold regime, but it does look dry.

Rainy Weather

2008-11-07T23:50:00.002-05:00

Alright, I have switched the background to our 5 day forecast from fall to winter. I think it is about time and maybe this new background can jump start our winter here in SNE. Parts of New York state, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania have already seen heavy accumulating snows so far. Some parts of NY, NJ, and PA saw over a foot to 18"+ of snowfall last Tuesday. Worcester got their first flakes of the season last week as well. Then we saw temperatures soar into the mid to upper 60's early this week only to have a muggy time of it today and going into this weekend with cloudy skies and drizzly weather. Tomorrow will feature another day of scattered showers and mild temperatures, as well as Sunday before we start to cool down in a big way going into Monday when highs will be in the upper 40's in the hills to around 50 near the coast. We continue to cool down going into Tuesday and Wednesday with highs staying in the mid to upper 40's on Tuesday and likely holding in the mid 40's on Wednesday with a slight chance of a few wet snow showers later Wednesday night as a warm front moves through the area. It would be very light and right now it is just the slightest chance of actually seeing this verify. That leads us going into next weekend as a storm system will cut to our west and draw in some unseasonably warm air and rainy conditions once again before we really start to cool (cold) down going into mid month and latest indications are that we could be going into the Deep Freeze for Thanksgiving week. That's way out there so more on that later on this month. Luckily there is only about 19 days left until Thanksgiving. Where does time go?

Mild Week Ahead, Prospects of Prolonged Cold (& Snow) Long Range

2008-11-02T14:16:00.001-05:00

I hope everyone had a good Halloween this past Friday night. We got some great weather for the trick or treaters and for the party goers as well. Now we are into the month of November and the frequency of cold shots and snow chances will start to increase with each passing day. We start the month with average highs in the mid to upper 50’s, but by month’s end, average highs will be falling into the lower to middle 40’s, heading into December. We are starting off the month chilly with highs only getting into the mid 40’s today here in SNE. Worcester could have a tough time coming over the 38-42 degree range this afternoon. But, this is a one day cold snap and we are returning to normal or slightly above normal tomorrow afternoon with highs getting to between 55-60 degrees, warmest in the Route 24 corridor. We continue the warm up this week as we head into midweek with Tuesday and Wednesday getting real warm around these parts ahead of the next storm system. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will be getting into the lower 60’s easily and with enough sunshine, either of the two days, more likely Wednesday could get close to 70 degrees in some parts away from the coast, believe it or not. But then the rain and unsettled weather comes for later in the week with Thursday and Friday both being showery days with highs dropping back into the 50’s, but it will still be a warm airmass, so no worries of frozen precipitation even to the Canadian border with this one. It will be an all rain situation.

Outlooks way out into mid November suggest a return to a prolonged period of cold weather and storm chances, but that is so far out, let’s get through the first two weeks of November before we start thinking about the last two weeks. As the winter returns, I will be posting more and more often, so get ready, Winter 2008-2009 is nearly upon us.

Snow in the Forecast?!

2008-10-19T21:30:00.002-05:00

Fall has really settled into New England this past couple of days. Today was a very blustery day with temperatures in the upper 40’s in the Worcester Hills to lower 50’s in the lower elevations. A stiff NE breeze gave a bite to the air in southeastern Massachusetts today with the ocean storm off our coastline today. We woke up to temperatures in the 30’s in suburbia with mid 20’s out past Worcester into SW NH. Tonight will be another chilly night with many areas in suburbia of Boston getting down into the upper 20’s to around 30 degrees. However, we will rebound nicely tomorrow with highs getting back to the mid 50’s and the wind will not be as strong as it was today. Ahead of the next storm system, the flow will turn SW which will allow us to warm up to around 60 degrees, believe it or not, on Tuesday afternoon before rain showers move in from the NW later in the day.
As the rain pushes through our area, an area of low pressure will start to develop off the Cape and strengthen rapidly, all the while, the temperatures will be crashing in Southern New England. At this time, areas in Central and Northern New England will likely already be seeing light to moderate precipitation with temperatures dropping through the 30’s, so they will see the rain mix with and change to an all snow event. Now the question becomes, will there still be precipitation falling on Wednesday morning here in the Boston metro area. If so, I strongly believe that the precipitation type will not be falling in the form of drops, but in the form of flakes. Areas in elevated locations, like the Worcester Hills and Manadnocks of SW NH will see a higher likelihood of snowfall, but even areas closer to Boston, like Boston’s immediate suburbs, could see some wet snow flakes if this materializes like it should. Regardless, Wednesday is going to be a COLD BLUSTERY day with highs staying in the lower to mid 40’s in SNE and NNE won’t get out of the 30’s! Some areas of the higher elevations of NH and ME may see an accumulation out of this. A couple to a few inches of snowfall is not out of the question on the highest peaks.

The temperatures moderate later on in the forecast, so it’s not all doom and gloom.

Indian Summer to Fall Chill

2008-10-13T19:37:00.004-05:00

Enjoy the last few days of nice summery weather here in SNE. Tomorrow will be another day with highs in the upper 60's to around 70 degrees with abundant sunshine and we will only be warmer on Wednesday with highs getting well into the 70's. Overnight lows won't be as chilly Wednesday and Thursday mornings as most places will stay above 50 degrees. However, by the end of the week and into next weekend especially, we will struggle to match those nighttime lows for afternoon highs. Our transition day will be on Thursday with showers and moderate temperatures, highs in the 60's before we really start to cool down on Friday with highs staying in the 50's and then we really take a step down on Saturday with highs likely staying in the upper 40's here in SNE with overnight lows getting down into the 20's and 30's even here in SNE. Of course the valleys and sheltered regions will fall below freezing as many already have, but places that haven't seen that killing frost will get it this weekend. We will slowly start to moderate heading into next week, but the damage will have already been done for many of your plants outside as leaves will start to fall from the trees and we will introduce leaf raking season. Always fun.

The Red Sox/Rays game tomorrow looks very nice with temperatures in the mid 60's for the 7PM first pitch, and temperatures will gradually head towards 60 degrees by game's end. Hopefully we can have a better outcome tomorrow than what we had today. The Sox are down 2-1, heading into Game 4. Wakefield heads to the mound tomorrow to stop the bleeding.

Foliage Starting to Peak

2008-10-11T16:02:00.002-05:00

The fall foliage is starting to peak across much of Central and now Southern New England. It has come on strong with the maples and birches here in eastern Massachusetts and is really starting to look amazing with peak conditions coming on strong and vibrant. SE Massachusetts is still only nearing peak, while everyone else will be passing peak in the next week or two with massive leaf drop likely. This is an amazing weekend for leaf peeping for those who went to the North Country to see amazing vibrant colors on the base of the mountains and snow capped summits. Its an amazing sight. Route 16 in NH is great this time of year. The peak colors will continue to head SE towards the coast and get the Cape within the next 7-10 days. The weather has been fantastic with highs in the North getting up into the 60's with highs in the South getting into the 70's the past couple of days. Tomorrow through Tuesday and Wednesday look to continue the cool nights and warm days theme with highs tomorrow and Monday near 70, while Tuesday will be into the mid 70's, before we start to cool off later in the week to near 60 by Thursday and then by the weekend, highs will be in the 50's it looks like in the Boston metro area with highs in the north likely staying in the 40's with overnight lows into the 20's North and 30's South. If you haven't gotten a frost yet, next weekend may be the time for you. It looks like many areas outside of the city of Boston will be experiencing their first frosts and possibly hard freezes by next weekend, say around Sunday morning perhaps. Until then, enjoy the warm October weather because long range outlooks chill us down big time by the end of next week and that cool to cold weather regime looks to continue through the rest of the month it looks like. So get out there and enjoy the warm sunshine while we still have it.

The Sun Returns...

2008-10-02T09:17:00.001-05:00

The sun has finally returned to SNE after waiting days and day for its return. Last night an area of showers, locally heavy, moved through the South Shore of Massachusetts and left up to a quarter inch of rainfall in its wake and left the morning pavement wet across cities from Brockton to Plymouth, MA. That has moved offshore now and we will now be seeing the clouds start to break with the ground drying out after about a week of clouds and rain. Today will actually feature nice temperatures as well with highs getting right up to about 70 degrees. Normal for this time of year is about 67 degrees, so we will actually be a few degrees above normal for the date. Tomorrow looks like another dry and fairly mild day with highs getting into the upper 60’s to around 70 degrees. Then a front will move through our area from Canada and we will go into the coolest air of the season on Saturday and we really chill down by Monday with highs likely in the around 50 degrees on the hilltops and highest elevations of SNE, likely only 40’s for highs in NNE, and likely around 55 degrees in the city of Boston. Overnight lows with the longer nights will have a chance to really bottom out as we cool down the afternoon highs, so we will likely see a frosty Sunday morning here in many areas outside of the cities here in SNE, with more people getting into frosts and growing season ending freezes by Monday and Tuesday mornings. Monday will feel like a day more suitable for early to mid November here in SNE and could come as a shock to the system.

If you are looking for snow, there may be some of the white stuff in the Catskills of northern upstate New York tomorrow night which could push over into the Green Mountains of Vermont with the usual places like Mount Mansfield and Jay Peak likely getting a fresh covering of snow on their summits, yielding a Saturday with snowcapped mountains and nice foliage at the base. That could be quite the sight for leaf peepers. SNE will have to wait another 2 weeks before we get peak foliage into our area. The snow? I think we will have to wait a little while longer yet, but the first flakes are likely only a few short weeks away, climatologically.

October to Start Chilly

2008-10-01T19:03:00.003-05:00

October is a month of transition here in SNE. We can start off the month with nearly summery conditions with temperatures into the 80’s, with the all-time record high at Boston’s Logan Airport at 90 degrees. It can also see winter like cold with the record low in the 10’s in suburbia to 20’s in the city of Boston. This is also the month where many see their first flakes as well. Actually, we usually see accumulating snowfall about one every three to four winters outside of the city, with the last accumulating October snowfall on October 29, 2005. That day featured a forecast for morning snow showers to rain that quickly grew intense and in the end, some towns in metro Boston picked up a thick coating to a couple of inches of water logged snowfall. October snowfalls don’t mean that you will have a blockbuster year, however. In October of 2001, Boston recorded its earliest flakes on record, October 8th, and Boston only saw about 17” of snow for the entire winter that year, with the majority of it falling overnight on December 8th, when a general 5-8” snowstorm blanketed SNE with heavy wet snow.

That said, our forecast is cooling down as we head into the weekend. Tomorrow will be a near normal day, maybe even slightly above normal with temperatures in the upper 60’s to around 70 degrees tomorrow. The sun will also make an appearance tomorrow after today’s storms around Boston. After six straight cloudy days, we could use some sun. Temperatures continue to decline going into Friday and Saturday with only highs in the low 60’s Friday, and around 60 on Saturday. We continue to drop in the temperature department on Sunday with a frosty morning out in suburbia, with lows getting down to the low and mid 30’s in places like Norwood, MA and Bedford, MA. That will lead to a day of temperatures maxing out in the upper 50’s. We continue the downward trend on Monday with highs likely staying in the lower 50’s in Worcester County and SW NH, with mid 50’s closer to the coast. Morning lows will be very cold as well with temperatures likely going below freezing for some time in suburbia and likely around 40-44 degrees in the city of Boston. Monday will be our coolest day of the next bunch with moderating temperatures later next week, getting back into the mid 60’s by midweek. Early call on Columbus Day weekend and its way too early to be speculating on this, but right now it looks like a mainly dry weekend with seasonably cool temperatures. If you had to peg me with numbers, I would say low 60’s in SNE with cooler temperatures in the mountains. Likely highs in the 50’s and lows in the 20’s and 30’s up North, with peaking color in Central and ‘northern’ SNE. The North Country will likely be past peak at this time with massive leaf drop at this time at the highest elevations. Still, its way too early to be looking out this far, so we will have to wait and see as we head into next week.

That is all for now, I will try to post more regularly as we head into the most fun part of the year, wintertime. Enjoy October, it's one of the best months of the year.

Hurricane Kyle Just Misses...

2008-09-27T23:17:00.005-05:00

Hurricane Kyle will be missing SNE by just miles tomorrow morning as it passes closest to Nantucket as a minimal Category 1 storm with max winds of around 80 mph, with gusts to 100 mph as it heads into the Gulf of Maine and makes landfall somewhere in Downeast Maine or Nova Scotia as a minimal hurricane or strong tropical storm. Kyle will give some tropical storm force gusts to the Cape and Islands and likely some rain from its outer bands but that will be about it. The rain from the front will finally come to an end for the rest of eastern SNE later tonight after 48 hours of rainfall and rain amounting up to 5-6" in some spots with many spots receiving between 2-5" of rainfall since yesterday morning. If Kyle were to hit us, we'd be talking about an easy 6"+, but that will not be the case, so let's not even worry about it. Kyle leaves into the Canadian Maritimes later tomorrow night and that will allow for a brief warmup for Monday with temperatures into the low to mid 70's under partly cloudy skies.

Then we will start to cool down for the midweek when we will be watching for a Wednesday rainstorm again with cool temperatures and rainy conditions. This doesn't look like flooding rains that we have gone through this weekend, but enough to slow things down and just make it wet. A front will clear the area on Thursday morning and then the floodgates will open this weekend for some real cool fall air to arrive to SNE as we will have highs around 60 degrees on Thursday, but then we could be stuck in the mid 50's for a majority of next weekend with lows getting to frosty levels and the end of the growing season for suburbia; low 30's, even a few upper 20's in the coldest locals?

We'll have to wait and see on that. Until then, just one more so so day before some nice weather right in time for the start of the work week.

September Warmth to Chill

2008-09-07T11:46:00.004-05:00

SUNDAY- Good morning to all of you readers. I know it has been quite a long time since I have posted, but I am back now and will be posting more sporadically, but will still post for the bigger weather events. I hope we all survived Hannah last night. The wind was pretty meager, but the rainfall was impressive with 3-6" of rain falling in a 6 hour timeframe. Now we look to the beginning of the week with more warm temperatures, into the 80's, before we start to cool off going into the midweek with temperatures falling back into the 60's with very chilly overnight lows. Tomorrow we are looking at highs in the low to mid 80's with partly cloudy skies before Tuesday we see clouds increase during the course of the afternoon and possibly see some scattered showers later in the afternoon and evening. Highs will still be quite warm on Tuesday, into the low 80's. Then those showers will bring in some nice cool air with highs in the upper 60's for both Wednesday and Thursday. Some places that radiate the best at night will see low temperatures Thursday morning around 40 degrees believe it or not, even after we had dewpoints in the mid and upper 70's with Hannah's moisture around yesterday afternoon.

Hurricane Ike, changing the topic, is moving through the northern part of Hispanola right now and heading for the eastern part of Cuba in the next 24 hours as a strong Category 4 Hurricane with max winds of 135 mph, gusting over 160. Cuba will rip this strong hurricane apart a bit, but it will enter the Gulf as a Cat 1 and be able to strengthen to possibly a Cat 3 or higher as it heads anywhere from western FL to Houston, TX. The latter part of this week could get interesting once again. Latest models show this storm getting close to New Orleans yet again as a strong Cat 3, but we are still in la-la land. Time will tell.

Fall Chill to Summer Heat!

2008-08-18T10:35:00.002-05:00

MONDAY- Good morning. Its a warm Monday here in southern New England. As of the noon hour, many areas from the Cape to metrowest are coming up into the lower to middle 80's on our way to highs in the upper 80's to maybe knicking 90 degrees in a few towns. A front will be coming through tomorrow with the slight chance of a shower or storm before noon north of the Mass Pike with a greater chance of showers and storms between 11AM and 3PM on the South Shore and South Coast and Cape. This will help to keep our temperatures down into the 70's with partly cloudy skies with Canadian air north of the Pike to mostly cloudy skies south of the Pike and especially the further east you go. This front will deliver some fresh Canadian air for Wednesday and we will see deep blue skies with very low humidity and temperatures only getting into the low to mid 70's despite nearly 100 percent sunshine. It will be a crisp fall-like airmass over us. That leads us to a very chilly night tomorrow night and Wednesday morning. We could have lows drop into the mid 40's in suburbia for Wednesday morning with areas south of the Pike staying in the 50's to around 60 in Boston and on the Cape. But places like Norwood, MA and Bedford, MA may bottom out between 42-44 degrees as they usually radiate like crazy on a clear calm night. We have one more cold morning on Thursday but the afternoon will be warm with temperatures getting back into the low 80's even with morning temperatures falling down into the 40's once again in suburbia, but again, Worcester, Boston and the Cape with likely stay in the 57-62 degree range overnight. Then it is off to the races with very warm conditions coming in to end the week with temperatures nearing 90 once we get to Friday and Saturday with abundant sunshine. The heat will return. Unfortunately its when everyone is starting to go back to work and school. Figures.

Tropical Storm Faye is Born

2008-08-15T16:37:00.004-05:00

TROPICAL UPDATE- Well, we officially have tropical storm Faye out in the Atlantic. She is a weak TS with max winds of 40 mph sustained with gusts up to 50 mph. She is moving W at 13 mph and is currently interacting with Hispanola which will not allow this system to really intensify much as it heads towards Florida. The computer models this morning showed a GA/SC hit to NYC to eastern New England, but this afternoon, many have shifted much further west, possibly heading into the Gulf of Mexico. It may even interact with the mountains of Cuba which could totally wreak havoc on this system and destroy it totally into nothing more than a disorganized area of thunderstorms and showers with some wind. I have outlined the most likely track for Tropical Storm Faye as of right now. I have moved it west, much further west than originally forecasted yesterday. Here is an update from the NHC.

...Tropical Storm Fay forms...sixth Atlantic storm of the season... Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that the low pressure area over the Mona Passage became a tropical storm as it moved into the eastern Dominican Republic.

At 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...the government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Dominican Republic for the entire north coast of the Dominican Republic and for the South Coast east of San Pedro de macoris. A Tropical Storm Warning is
also in effect for the north coast of Haiti from gonaives northward. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24
hours.

At 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...the government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the provinces of Guantanamo...Santiago de Cuba...and Granma.

At 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...the government of Cuba has issued a tropical storm watch for the provinces of Holguin and Las Tunas. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

At 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located near latitude 18.5 north...longitude 69.4 west or about 35 miles... 55 km...east of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic and about 395 miles...635 km...east-southeast of Guantanamo Cuba.

Fay is moving toward the west near 14 mph...22 km/hr. A general motion toward the west-northwest is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track...the center of Fay will cross Hispaniola tonight and Saturday...and pass near or over eastern
Cuba Saturday night and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...65 km/hr...with higher gusts...mainly over water to the north and east of the center. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 kmfrom the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb...29.77 inches.

Tides of 1 to 2 feet feet above normal can be expected in the warning area in areas of onshore flow. Fay is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over Hispaniola and eastern Cuba...with isolated maximu amounts of 12 inches. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Repeating the 500 PM AST position...18.5 N...69.4 W. Movement toward...west near 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds...40 mph. Minimum central pressure...1008 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 800 PM AST followed by the next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

Invest-92 Posing US Threat?

2008-08-14T14:23:00.002-05:00

TROPICAL UPDATE- I thought I'd update the situation on Invest-92 this afternoon. Right now it is really starting to get its act together north of the Windward Islands and is quickly gathering steam as it heads in a WNW motion at this time. We could have a tropical depression by 5PM and a tropical storm soon thereafter. I have outlined the area in red where this storm is possibly going to track over. As you can see it will be heading generally in a NW motion north of Hispanola and Cuba. It will be going over the Bahamas as a strong Tropical Storm or even Category 1 Hurricane. Then it will come very close to South Florida before heading due north it looks like by the computer models. It looks to be off the SE coast sometime early next week and then head N and eventually NNE and NE heading away from the mainland United States. It looks to recurve out into the open Atlantic Ocean. This is still a developing situation and one that will have to be checked back with in the coming days if you live anywhere from the Keys to Maine at this point in time. The greatest chance of a direct impact from this not yet named storm would be from the central coast of Florida to the Carolinas. I would say at this point there is a low probability of SNE seeing anymore than just indirect effects from this tropical system. More on this developing weather situation later on. Watch out for the thunderstorms and downpours today and more rain tomorrow. Another washout?!

Summer to Return

2008-08-13T08:42:00.002-05:00

WEDNESDAY- I am here to say that summer will be returning to SNE. Today, Wednesday is a beautiful day with temperatures getting up to around 80 under mostly sunny skies. But we have more rain and thundershowers to get through tomorrow and Friday. Some of this rain will be locally heavy tomorrow afternoon (mainly after 2PM) which could cause some street flooding in some areas. Interesting to note is that 30 day rainfall totals north of the Pike for the past thirty days have been anywhere from 8-15". More rain tomorrow and Friday before summer really returns on Saturday and beyond. No more cool and cloudy weather for SNE at least for an extended period. Tomorrow and Friday will not be real cool, just slightly below normal with highs in the upper 70's on both days. Lows have been falling into the upper 50's in suburbia the past couple of nights and I think that will continue the next couple of mornings. A crisp feel when you wake up in the morning and head out to work or get ready for the beach. Then Saturday a few showers will be exiting off of the Cape with mostly sunny skies developing NW of here with highs getting back to seasonable levels, low 80's. Sunday through Tuesday we will stay dry and continue to turn the thermostat up as we go along. We are talking low 80's Saturday, mid 80's Sunday, and near 90 on Monday. We can go ahead and call that hot. The pattern looks to change for a warmer and drier regime as we head toward this weekend and beyond, right in time for school to start.

The tropics are heating up now as well with two areas of disturbed weather formally classified as Invest 92 and Invest 93. We could have TDs by the end of today. Other than mentioning them, I won't go into too much detail because they may not even form today.

Lots of (MORE) Rain

2008-08-09T13:16:00.002-05:00

SATURDAY- I'm here to tell you that more and more rain is on the way to SNE. We aren't talking light rain, but gully washers here. After a nice dry Saturday with temperatures in the 70's we are going to have heavy to strong storms move through our area tomorrow afternoon and evening that will consolidate into one shield of heavy rain for early Monday before more scattered heavy showers on Monday afternoon. These storms will be hit and miss and the rainfall will vary widely from town to town, but many areas are fair game for at least one inch of water. Parts of western Massachusetts by Springfield and Amherst have already seen between 4-8" of rainfall in the past five days and more looks likely. I am going for a SNE regionwide totals of 1-3" by the time its all said and done. Some spots will get more and others not so much. Right now it looks like western SNE will get the most (again) with widespread amounts of 2" or more. Flooding will become another possibility here in SNE.

That all clears out by Monday and we actually get a Tuesday that is similar to today, partly cloudy and warm with temperatures in the 70's. The only reason we won't make it into the 80's is because the ground is so wet. That is why we woke up to so many clouds here in SNE this Saturday morning. Tuesday could be similar. Then we go back for more showers and storms come Wednesday that will linger right through the end of next week unfortunately. That's all for now, check back later.

The tropics are eriely quiet.

Dry Saturday, More Storms/Flooding Early Next Week

2008-08-08T10:32:00.002-05:00

FRIDAY- Good afternoon everyone. We are actually seeing some sunshine around this noon hour today here in SNE. Don't get used to it because this midday sunshine will only increase the instability of the atmosphere as another spindle of energy rotates through the area later this afternoon with more showers and heavy thunderstorms. Some spots yesterday in western New England saw possible funnel clouds, golf ball sized hail, and heavy flooding rains. Some spots in the West saw between 2-5" of rainfall with yesterday's storms. Here in eastern New England, SNE, we were spared with the heavy rains and strong thunder as the marine influence helped to negate the instability. Today we will not be so lucky. The sun is out and the temperatures arer rising into the mid to upper 70's as of this noon hour. Expect showers and thunderstorms to spindle through our area by about 2PM in WNE and continue eastward around 5PM. A few pop up storms could develop in any given area at any given time today, so be on the lookout.

The storms should taper tonight and lead to a clear overnight with cool temperatures dropping into the 50's in the suburbs. A few spots will drop into the mid 50's, including Bedford and Norwood. Saturday will be a generally dry day with warm temperatures. Any showers will be confined to northern New England and even there will not be a great chance. Sunday the storms will arrive again, as a strong line of storms moves through our area and then stall off our shores on Monday as the front gets held up with a low pressure spinning off it and we get a stormy near washout day on Monday with cool temperatures. If we stay in the clouds and NE breeze, high temperatures will be in the mid 60's, but for now I'm going optimisticly lower 70's. We'll see. That gets us a dry Tuesday before more showers midweek. That's the pattern we are in and it looks to stay entrenched.

We Can't Break this Pattern

2008-08-07T08:36:00.003-05:00

THURSDAY- We have been in this pattern for nearly two months now. Lots of showers and storms each and every afternoon and it looks like this pattern will be sticking with us for at least the next few days. We could get a break early next week only to go right back into a showery and cool pattern once again. Today and tomorrow will be the coolest of the next bunch with highs today getting up to the lower 70's away from the coast, to upper 60's to around 70 degrees right on the coast. Rain showers, some heavy, will move into our area later this afternoon and continue overnight through tomorrow morning as well. Tomorrow we will have some morning showers and thunderstorms exiting off the eastern shores of SNE and by midday we will be stuck in that bright overcast and damp feeling kind of day with very cool temperatures. Tomorrow will be stuck in the mid to upper 60's along the coast to near 70 inland. Western New England could see the sun by late afternoon with highs responding into the 70's to perhaps near 80 degrees, west of the CT River Valley. All and all, we are looking at a half inch to inch of rain with this storm system, or next spindle of rain for overnight tonight and early tomorrow morning.

The weekend will feature more of the same with showers and thunderstorms a threat each afternoon, but they will become fewer and farther between as we move along through the weekend. We could actually have a total dry day around here by Sunday with more sun than we usually see this summer and temperatures getting up to near of slightly over 80 degrees regionwide. If we can't do it Sunday, we can have a better chance at it on Monday and again on Tuesday. I think both days will be mostly dry and sunny with very warm temperatures getting back to slightly above normal once again. The normal high for this date is right in the lower 80's.

After Tropical Storm Edouard's landfall north of Houston earlier this week, there is not much else to talk about in the tropics at this time. Signs are that it could get pretty active in the August 15-25 time period, but we will have to wait and see about that.

Showers and Storms Rule

2008-08-06T12:48:00.003-05:00

WEDNESDAY- It's been a very cool day this Wednesday afternoon in early August. Sorry for the long delay in posts since late July. I've been away down the Cape for the past week and got great weather down there while areas around Boston have been in the showers and clouds for most of the past week and have been dealing with cool temperatures. Today's highs will likely stay in the mid 60's along the coast and may approach 70 degrees in metrowest. Showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast for today as well through the evening hours. A line of strong storms will come through Boston's immediate suburbs from the NW out of NH later this afternoon between 4-6PM and these storms will provide strong winds and heavy rain.

Tomorrow's forecast is more of the same with showers and thunderstorms and more cool weather with temperatures in the low 70's. Friday is another wet day before we start to dry out by Saturday and Sunday which leads us to a nice and dry Monday with warm temperatures into the 80's once again before the shower threat arrives once again on Tuesday.

Last Days of July Coming with no Surprises

2008-07-26T20:55:00.002-05:00

SATURDAY- As we say goodbye to July 2008, we will have very typical weather for this summer to endure. Tomorrow will be one of those days here in SNE this summer where we start off with some sun and hazy skies and quickly shoot up to the mid 80's, before afternoon showers and thunderstorms develop and bring a nice dousing of rainfall to many areas. Tomorrow's threat for severe weather looks greatest in western New England, mainly west of Worcester where there could be some severe storms that dump heavy rain, possibly large hail, and strong winds. Frequent lightning is always a risk with thunderstorms, severe or not, so be aware tomorrow. The atmosphere isn't conducive for tornadoes tomorrow like early this past week, so we won't have to worry about that. We will likely see watches go up tomorrow late morning and continue to say 5-8PM.

Thereafter we dry out for Monday and Tuesday with seasonable temperatures in the mid 80's before we return to a more unsettled period for Wednesday and heading into the new month of August on Friday. Temperatures will be cooler into the 70's, but I think we avoid the heaviest of the rain here in SNE as most of the energy will be confined to central and northern New England where locally heavy rain is possible come Wednesday night into Thursday. It looks to be unsettled heading into next weekend though, so just be aware for making plans.

The tropics are very quiet tonight and will likely be quiet for a while as the winds have become unfavorable for any development near any sort of landmass. So, that's good news. Maybe the Red Sox will be able to salvage one game tomorrow at Fenway?

Sultry Saturday...

2008-07-25T21:52:00.002-05:00

FRIDAY- It's the weekend again. It looks like we have got ourselves a pretty good weekend here in SNE. We won't be as hot as last weekend when we saw highs in the mid 90's, but tomorrow will be in the upper 80's with lots of humidity and abundant sunshine. Humidity will be on the rise tomorrow afternoon here in SNE. This will lead to a few showers Sunday afternoon and evening as a disturbance will kick off a few showers and thunderstorms. Most will be north of us for the evening hours. Temperatures will be in the seasonable level through Monday and Tuesday with highs in the low to perhaps mid 80's, right on target for this time of year and seasonable overnight lows in the low 60's outside of the city to upper 60's in the cities.

Our next threat at some rain looks to be about midweek next week with heavy rain and wind slated for Wednesday afternoon and night as an energetic packet of energy swings through SNE from the Great Lakes with an unusual potent little storm that could bring periods of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms that could renew flooding? Let's hope not. Yesterday this looked to hit the PHI-NYC corridor, but today, it looks like its slated for the NYC to Portland, ME corridor with the heaviest right in the Springfield to Worcester to Boston corridor. We'll wait and see how this pans out. It's still a ways out there.

Finally Drying Out

2008-07-24T21:52:00.002-05:00

THURSDAY- After seeing rain everyday since Sunday, SNE is going to finally dry out after tonight's rains move off the Cape and Islands around or after midnight. We have had a rainy couple of days around here in SNE. Many spots saw between 1-2" of rainfall yesterday, plus another 1-3" of rainfall today. That makes us a two day total of 2-5", with rainfall since Sunday of over six inches. It is about time we started to dry out and tomorrow we will. We had a waterspout in Barrington, RI yesterday with minimal damage, but today we saw a more pronounced severe outbreak in Epsom, NH where between 50-100 homes were damaged or destroyed by a possible tornado. The pictures coming out of this small NH town are simply unbelievable. It looks more like a small town in KS, rather than a small New England town. Tomorrow the NWS team will survey the damage to see whether or not this was a tornado or straight line winds. From eye witness testimonies, this seems to be a tornado, that of an EF-2 or possibly EF-3. The damage is pretty awful.

More rain comes back in on Sunday, but we will not see inches upon inches of rainfall. In fact, it looks like most of the energy with this storm system will be up in western and northern New England. SNE could be spared with just scattered thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall, not widespread heavy rain and thunderstorms. The North Country could see another 1-2" of rain, locally heavier and locally less all due to where the cells set up shop.

We clear out again to start next week, before we watch a packet of energy come out of the Lower Great Lakes with a pulse of heavy rain and thunderstorms, some severe, shoot out towards to Mid Atlantic and Northeast. For now, it looks like most of this heavy rain and thunder will stay to the south of us, south of New York City, but the potential is there for more heavy rainfall, looking like it stays south of us this time. This has another 1-2" of rainfall associated with it, so if we can miss it, I don't think many will be all that devastated.

Flooding July Rains

2008-07-22T23:43:00.002-05:00

WEDNESDAY- I'm posting very late tonight, but I thought I'd break out the usual snowfall map for some pretty hefty rainfall totals that we will be seeing over the next couple of days. If you thought that we weren't able to get a half a foot of rain in July by anything other than a tropical cyclone, you were mistaken. All you need is a stalling out front and a whole heck of a lot of moisture riding up that front with a gusty southerly breeze. Today, Wednesday, will feature most of the storms in western New England and the Mid Atlantic. They will eventually migrate eastward by tomorrow night and especially Thursday. It will gradually weaken as it moves eastward saving metro Boston from inches upon inches of rain. You want to talk a lot of rain, then look into the western part of our area. Worcester on westward, including Hartford, will see a good 2-3" of rainfall, locally more in heavy slow moving thunderstorms. Where the mountains help to squeeze out every available drop of moisture, in the Berkshires and Green Mountains, expect a good 3" or more of rainfall with locally as much as 6" of rainfall. I wouldn't be surprised if someone in the Northeast from PA to western VT picked up locally 8-10" of rainfall in the next 48 hours.

As you move to Boston, we are dealing with a soaking 1-2" of rain with locally heavier and lower amounts. The Cape gets kind of jipped with this one as they will be left with less than one inch, but if we can get a batch of thunderstorms down there, you could easily see 1-2" with Boston as well. This is where we really could use the rain and hopefully we can get it down into SEMA. We should clear out by Friday with mostly sunny skies and temperatures back into the mid 80's after having 70's for Wednesday and Thursday, but with dewpoints in the upper 60's to low 70's at times. It's going to be a muggy, rainy, nasty couple of days. Check for basement flooding in the west.

Unsettled Times, Tropics Ignite- THREE Storms Active in Atlantic

2008-07-20T23:57:00.003-05:00

SUNDAY- We were greeted with showers and storms to end off this weekend, one of the last ones of July. Severe storms cut across Boston and metrowest today with some wind damage and heavy rainfall. More storms moved through eastern Mass around midnight with frequent lightning and torrential heavy rains which prompted a Flood Advisory by the NWS. Some spots saw between 1" to as much of 3" locally. Tomorrow is going to be more of the same. Overall tomorrow is going to be another wet day and very humid as well. There will be dry periods, but on the overall picture, we will have bouts of heavy rain and thunderstorms. Again, some spots could stay mostly dry tomorrow but other spots could see another 1-2" of rainfall in heavy storms.

Tuesday we will dry out with a slight risk of an afternoon or evening thunderstorm before we get real wet around here on Wednesday and Thursday with heavy rains that could extent from Virginia to Maine and persist for a couple of days. Latest computer model guidance is suggesting that anywhere between 2-5" of rainfall is possible, heaviest in western New England. I don't think we will see this much rain, but a good widespread 1-2" soaking is possible out of this.

The tropics are active right now as well. We got Bertha that is still a strong Tropical Storm with winds around 60 mph. It is exiting stage right and heading towards Iceland. It is no threat to the US. Cristobal is looking healthy tonight after looking lackluster all day today. It has really blossomed nice convection tonight and winds are up to 50 mph. However, its not going to hit land and is already heading harmlessly out to sea. It is just a problem for shippers at this time.

The last one is Tropical Storm Dolly. She is formerly known as Invest 94 which developed this morning and is now in the western Carribean and heading towards the Yucatan. It's developing a northern LLC right now and will likely scrape the NE most point of the Yucatan which will do little to weaken this system. Once it heads into the GOM, it will set its eyes of extreme northern Mexico all the way up to Houston, TX. It will take about 2-3 days to travel westward over 80-85 degree water, which will no doubt fuel Dolly to a Hurricane by possibly this time tomorrow night. Currently, she has 50 mph winds, but could be nearing hurricane status by tomorrow night or Tuesday. We could easily be talking about a Cat 2 or major Cat 3 storm barreling across the GOM if this thing avoids weakening tomorrow. We have seen storms really explode in the GOM.

Did anyone say $170/barrel of crude oil (sweet)? CRAP!

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL FORMS

2008-07-19T13:40:00.002-05:00

SATURDAY TROPICAL UPDATE- Tropical Depression 3 has just been upgraded at 2PM/July 19 to a tropical storm, taking on the named Cristobal. A weak storm, packing winds of only 40 mph, Cristobal will still pack quite the punch to areas along North Carolina's Outer Banks. This is the projected storm track that Cristobal should take and as you can see, it heads harmlessly out to sea south of New England. We are not expecting rapid development with this particular system. Cristobal may strengthen to have winds of around 50 mph once it heads well SE of Nantucket. Latest guidance takes this storm even futher east of where they were showing its expected track earlier, so this is quickly becoming of little concern other than for shipping interests along the East Coast. Even where Cristobal makes a direct hit over, conditions will be similar to a glorified wintertime Nor'easter with wind gusts of 40 mph and heavy rainfall. The Outer Banks could see between 2-5" of rainfall with this storm system, which I am sure many of them will take, as they are in one of the driest periods in history right now. They will take every drop of water that that can get.

So, once again, this does not pose much of a threat for us here in New England, other than shipping interests and more heavy surf at the beaches. But when Cristobal passes SE of New England, we will be dealing with a storm system of our own moving through that will lead to a stormy and wet Monday anyway, so there won't be too many people at the beaches anyway. That said, be safe if you head into the water early this week, it will be rough out there. You know the drill now though, after having Bertha out there for a week building up New England's surf along the coast. Interesting enough, Bertha is still out there and is currently a hurricane again with max winds of 75 mph as she heads towards Iceland of all places and could hit them as a strong tropical storm or even minimal Category 1 Hurricane believe it or not. Bertha is breaking all the records.

Severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon here in SNE as we are under a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. These storms are developing in NNE as we speak and will be heading into SNE between 4-6PM, which has prompted the NWS to issue the watch until 9PM EDT for all of SNE, even the Cape. So if you see the NW sky darken this afternoon and hear thunder in the distance, head indoors and be safe. We got ourselves one more scorcha tomorrow with highs getting back to that 90-95 degree category with more severe weather tomorrow evening.

TD 3 Forms, High Heat Saturday, Unsettled Week Ahead

2008-07-18T22:48:00.002-05:00

FRIDAY- We have got lots to talk about today. We have got ourselves a full plate to deal with. Tomorrow will be a very hot and humid day with heat indexes up to over 100 degrees! I am advertising heat up to the mid 90's tomorrow in much of SNE, while some spots will stay in the low 90's. Again, like today, there could be a random shower here in SNE. I was a bit surprised at the severe storms and torrential flooding rains in NNE today, and a few of those made it into SNE, giving Gloucester and Rockport a good storm as well as the Cape. A storm formed over Worcester County and moved east weakening as well, but tomorrow's storms will be few and far between. Most places will stay dry. I only give it about a 20 percent chance of any one town getting wet tomorrow. Then we are all fair game on Sunday and Sunday night especially when most will get wet with some showers and thunderstorms.

Then all eyes have to be moved to the south as the frontal system on Sunday could be the focal point and track for a developing tropical cyclone developing off the GA/SC coast tonight that just got named to TROPICAL DEPRESSION #3. Latest indications are that this could reach tropical storm status within the next couple of days and graze the NC Outer Banks and head up the coast. If anything, this will wring out all the water out of the air early next week, namely Monday and we could get a good soaking, whether or not we get the gusty winds from the TC, will have to be determined and ironed out in the next 36-48 hours. At the very least, next week looks to be quite unsettled.

That said, be safe tomorrow with the high heat and humidity. By now, you know the drill. Keep hydrated, wear cool clothes, and limit your time outdoors during the peak heat hours, 10AM-4PM. Have a good weekend and I'll have updates tomorrow on TD 3.

HIGH HEAT

2008-07-17T21:21:00.002-05:00

THURSDAY- We have got ourselves some high heat on the way for tomorrow and Saturday. Don't let the low to mid 90's fool you though. That may seem hot, but just wait until you figure in the humidity with dewpoints of 70-75 later tomorrow and Saturday. We could be talking about real feel temperatures of 100-105 degrees. It will be really uncomfortable to be outside and for the sensitive groups, it could get downright dangerous. I would suggest that if you have to get your jog in the next couple of days or have to work outside, try and do it before 10AM or after 7PM. If you have to be outside tomorrow, be sure to have on lots of sunscreen and have bottled water with you at all times. It is very easy to get dehydrated and it is really important to wear a hat and light clothing if at all possible.

Thereafter, we get into some storms on Sunday that will likely continue into early next week before we start to see some clearing later next week, but temperatures still look to be very warm through the period as summer is really settling in here in New England. Enjoy it now because this really sultry weather day in and day out is really going to become less and less as we head through the next 4-5 weeks. Enjoy it now if this is your type of weather.

The tropics are busy, but nothing looks too important at this time, so no worries, yet.

Classic Summer Weather in New England

2008-07-15T22:44:00.002-05:00

TUESDAY- You don't get more of a summery looking forecast here in SNE. We are quickly coming upon the dog days of summer and the next several will feel every bit of the mid summer feel you can get. The humidity is on the way up, up, up. We have been enjoying the past couple of days with dewpoints in the upper 50's to low 60's. That will soon be a thing of the past because we will notice an increase in the humidity tomorrow with dewpoints getting back into that 'sticky' range, into the mid 60's. The Cape by days end will likely see dewpoints getting to around 70 degrees. That is downright tropical and makes you sweat nearly as soon as you head out the door. The heat really gets turned on Thursday and then especially Friday and Saturday as temperatures will soar over 90 degrees.

Thursday will likely be around 90 degrees, but be just shy of 90 in Boston, Logan Airport proper. This will likely keep this from going down in the record books as an official heatwave because Sunday could be another day where the coast will only get to 86-89 degrees. But, inland locations will likely see official heatwaves. Places like Bedford, Nashua, Norwood, and Taunton will likely see at least a three day stretch of 90+ this week.

We really cool things off on Monday with highs in the 70's and the threat of some scattered showers, but that is so far out into the future, we won't be worrying about that quite yet. The tropics remain active, but not overly so. The same entities remain in place that we talked about yesterday, but will very little change. Bertha is still a TS, but could regain hurricane strength tomorrow and Invest 94 is still very haggard and will likely not develop into anything in the near future. Other than that, we are all quiet, which is a good thing, IMO.

High Heat On the Way....

2008-07-14T16:25:00.002-05:00

MONDAY- Today's cloudy and muggy weather will be a thing of the past once we get to tomorrow and through the rest of the week and towards the weekend. Tomorrow will be the last real tolerable day of the week with temperatures in the low to mid 80's with fairly low humidity. Wednesday we will see some more humidity with increasing temperatures coming up towards 90 degrees before we are in the 90's for Thursday, Friday and Saturday. We could be talking low 90's on Thursday, mid 90's on Friday, and mid to upper 90's on Saturday with high humidity. Even Sunday could come close to 90 degrees, making it possible that Boston could see its second 4-day heatwave of the year. You will notice that the overnight lows won't be that low as well. We are talking about lows only making to around 70 degrees in suburbia and low to mid 70's in urban centers. If you don't have air conditioning, you may want to contact your local mayor's office and see whether or not cooling centers will be opening in time for this extreme heat and humidity. Real feel temperatures during this peak of the heat will be coming up over 100 degrees, most likely. It's nothing to fool around with.

In the tropics, Bertha is still hanging around, giving Bermuda some wind and rain with max winds of 70 mph ATTM. As it heads NE away from Bermuda, it could go back to a Category 1 Hurricane. This will allow for the surf to build up along our beaches, but that is the most we will see with this one. Rip currents could be dangerous as well, so just a word to the wise. We are still watching that area of disturbed weather east of the Windward Islands as well as it has developed a tropical low pressure system and all we need is some convection to form around the area of low pressure and we will be talking about TD 3. This could happen in the next day or two.

Bertha Whanes; Cristobal Looms

2008-07-13T15:01:00.002-05:00

TROPICAL UPDATE 7/13- We have got ourselves busy in the tropical weather center these days. Right now we have three (3) areas of concern in the Atlantic at this time. First, we have got ourselves Bertha. Yesterday, she remained stationary southeast of Bermuda and basically suffocated itself. We saw drastic loss of cloud coverage and a general decaying system. We saw it drop from Category 1 Hurricane status to a moderate Tropical Storm with max winds of 65 mph at the 11AM EDT hour. It will gradually head northeast, not affecting Bermuda other than some large swells and breakers along the beaches. It will head northeast and gradually decay and get caught into a frontal system and gradually turn extratropical as it heads east back over the North Atlantic and into the graveyard.

Our second area of concern is east of the Windward Islands at this time. An area of convection has developed into an organized area of low pressure overnight and is continuing to strengthen and organize some more today. The NHC has classified this system as Invest 94, meaning that tropical cyclone formation is quickly becoming likely. Winds with I-94 are now 30 mph, just a few mph shy of reaching tropical depression status. If it were to develop as most computer models are forecasting, it would be our third named storm of the season and would take on the name Cristobal. Forecast tracks with this system are all over the place right now as outlined in the image above, so we will have to wait and see how this area of disturbed weather develops over the next 24-48 hours to have a better handle on things.

Our last area of disturbed weather is about 120 miles southeast of Charleston, SC. It is a developing area of low pressure along an old frontal boundary that is slowing up and stalling just off the Southeast Coast. An area of low pressure is slowly developing here and tropical cyclone formation does not look likely at this time, but it is worth watching nonetheless. Anytime you have a low pressure system developing over 80 degree water this time of year, you always have to be weary. It's hurricane season. This does not have any classification at this time, so just throw its existence into the back of your mind. Needless to say, most cyclones that do develop in this area usually travel northeast away from the mainland, so they are of little threat to the East Coast anyway. Just something to think about.

That's all for today. A quick update on the forecast calls for showers tomorrow afternoon with a few thunderstorms too. Nothing at this point looks like it will reach severe criteria, but there are always a few that do become severe, so just beware. After that, we clear our and really start to heat things up. We are talking low to mid 80's with low humidity on Tuesday before the humidity pumps back into SNE and the temperatures soar late week. We could be talking about low to mid 90's here on Friday and Saturday, maybe even beyond. Western New England from CT on SE down the I-95 corridor including NYC, PHI, BAL, and DC could be in line for a 5-8 day stretch of temperatures into the 90-100 degree range with high humidity. Electricity will be at a premium this week, that's for sure.

Perfect Sunday for Late Weekend Cookouts

2008-07-12T18:25:00.002-05:00

SATURDAY- Tomorrow will be a perfectly good day for a cookout here in SNE. We will be ahead of our next storm system that will not affect us until really late tomorrow night and Monday. Tomorrow will be a day that features more humidity and higher temperatures, mid and upper 80's. Clouds will start to develop later in the day and lower overnight and rain and thunder will commence for a general washout of a day on Monday. We will see tropical dewpoints into the 70's. We won't see inches of rain, but it will be a damp and cloudy day not worthy of the beach. It will have all the feel of a Monday. However, just wait a little bit and we will have days of sun and warmth Tuesday onward. By the end of the week, temperatures could be getting back into the 90's.

Hang in there.

Hope Everyone had a Good Fourth...Tropics are Heating Up!

2008-07-05T23:18:00.003-05:00

SATURDAY- Hey guys. I hope everyone had a good Fourth of July holiday yesterday. For the most part the weather cooperated with cloudy skies, but it was mainly dry. It was a little cool along the coast with temperatures in the 60's, but hey, we'll take what we can get. Today was the first day in a while without substantial thundershowers and was nice. It was mainly cloudy here in SNE, but hey, a day without pouring rain is a good one in my book, nowadays. Tomorrow will be similar to today, but with higher temperatures. Tomorrow should be about 5-10 degrees warmer than this afternoon, but the coast will still likely stay a little cooler with a feeble wind off the ocean. That front will waver up from NYC a little bit which will get the South Coast and the Cape a little wet. A few of those showers may make it into Boston by later tomorrow afternoon as well. Then we get into a hot and hazy and stormy stretch for Monday through Wednesday and even Thursday could be a hot day, as the humidity decreases. We are talking about highs pushing 90 degrees on Monday with afternoon thunder.

By Tuesday and Wednesday we are well into the 90's and will see highs in the mid 90's here in SNE with afternoon thunderstorms still possible. It could get so hot that the atmosphere forms a cap on Tuesday that would limit thunderstorm growth, but on Wednesday there will be a cool front that goes through the area that will trigger thunderstorms, locally severe, about the area. This will lead to one more hot day in Thursday before we start to cool down later in the week.

I thought I would talk about TROPICAL STORM BERTHA as well. I promised that I would give you the latest after the Fourth about the possible development of a cluster of convection near the African coast a few days ago. Well I am here to tell you that it has indeed developed and is strengthening and will continue to strengthen as it heads towards land. Right now it is a moderate tropical storm with max winds of 50 mph and steady pressure of 1000 mb. This is expected to strengthen though in the next few days and we could see this storm approaching hurricane status by later Tuesday and Tuesday afternoon with winds coming up over 75 mph. With the placement of our Bermuda High pressure system staying in place, this is a good setup for a storm to be steered north of the Bahamas and curve towards the Carolinas or even make a swipe at the Northeast and New England. This is starting to nerve forecasters in our area and with good reason as this is turning into a good setup for a New England strike and it's been a long time. We are due.

We will talk more about Bertha in the days to come as it sure will start to make BIG headlines on CNN, MSNBC, and FOX in the coming days. By midweek, this should be lead stories across all of our media outlets if it is still a threat to the US, which is what it should be if current forecasts hold true.

That's all for now. Weather should be fine for outdoor BBQ's for Sunday afternoon.

Unsettled Forecast into the Holiday Weekend

2008-07-02T17:51:00.002-05:00

WEDNESDAY - We have ourselves some really weird weather going on here in SNE. Every single day for what seems like the past month we have been fair game for showers and thunderstorms here in the SNE area. Every single day there is the threat of some severe weather and we got it today. Yesterday's severe weather was more confined to areas further west of the city out past Worcester and into CT, but today we were ground zero here in eastern SNE. Boston got pounded with storms between 2-3PM this afternoon with ponding on major roadways in and out of Boston that were flooded to the point where motorists had to leave their stranded cars. There are unofficial reports of nearly golfball sized hail just north of Norwood, MA this afternoon with a cell that moved from the southern part of the I-495 belt and moved northeastward slowly up past Weston/Waltham and up towards Medford and Stoneham and eventually hit towns like Lynn, Saugus, Reading, and exited off of Rockport, MA this afternoon. There were severe storms all over SNE this afternoon, with the most concentrated area from Worcester eastward to Boston and down on the South Shore to the North Shore and even parts of southern/central NH and ME.

After today's severe weather, we have another substantial shot at severe weather tomorrow afternoon, later in the afternoon this time, say starting in western New England after 2-3PM and not getting into eastern New England until after 4-6PM. This will allow temperatures to really get warm here in SNE. Some parts of our area will get into the low 90's, Boston is fair game for this type of heat, with 80's out in Worcester. This will be all the fuel needed for a cold front to spark off a line of severe thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon as it charges through our area. These storms will get stalled on the front that makes it just past Long Island, but kind of stays there all day on the Fourth.

This leaves us with a tricky Independence Day forecast. Right now I would say that if you are off of the South Coast and the Cape then you will likely stay dry for the entire Fourth and into fireworks time. But areas near that stalled front could be threatened by some showers and thunderstorms. It all depends on how far north that front is. If its further north, we could get showers and thunderstorms possibly up to Boston and its suburbs. However, right now, I would go with a low chance of precipitation on the South Coast and Cape Cod with basically a slight to zero chance north of the Pike, including Boston. This could turn out to be our driest day of the next bunch because after that, the front will come back north and we will be back into the pit of showers and thunderstorms every afternoon, after suffering through sweltering mornings and early afternoons where you can almost see the humidity. It seems the Summer of 2008 has picked its theme for SNE and we better get used to the threat of thunderstorms and severe weather almost every afternoon. It is in the forecast for the next week.

Also, interesting to note, in the tropics, there is something to watch that came off the coast of Africa that just caught the attention of some forecasters that it could form into our second named storm of the season, which is noteworthy since we are still a little over a month into Cape Verde season, where we see depressions develop off the African coast. This one could defy the odds and develop, so we will have to wait and see, but it is so far away from the lower 48 at this time, it is still 1.5 to 2 weeks away from posing any type of threat to landmass. So just throw it in the back of your mind and just check up on it in a few days to see if it developed. It's no big deal at this time.

That said, I hope you all have a good Fourth holiday and I will likely post again following the holiday and have an update as to when this stubburn showery pattern may finally come to an end and to see if we have something to be worried about in the tropics. Yeah, and the Rays are in first by 3.5 games on the Fourth!?

Summery Week Ahead

2008-06-28T22:50:00.002-05:00

SATURDAY- We have got ourselves a steamy, warm, and wet couple of days ahead for SNE. It seems we have been stuck in an unsettled regime with constant threats for showers and thunderstorms nearly every single day and it looks like we will continue this summer of '08 theme for a little while longer. Tonight there is heavy rain and embedded thunder in southern NH and VT up towards northern New England where some spots could pick up a quick inch of rainfall tonight. This will only contribute to the steam heat tomorrow through Tuesday before Wednesday finally clears out with some drier weather. As we say goodbye to June, we will have more afternoon thunderstorms tomorrow with a frontal system moving through our area that is giving parts of PA some severe weather overnight tonight. Tomorrow there will be severe weather from PHI to NYC to BOS and much of New England. Tomorrow's main threat will be strong winds and torrential flash flooding rainfall. There could be some small hail associated with some of the bigger storms, but that will be more localized that the general rule. Monday will feature the same and Tuesday there could be some more strong to severe thunderstorms before we finally dry out on Wednesday with dewpoints getting back to more reasonable levels.

So far the Fourth looks to be very nice and comfortable with any showers and thunderstorms ending overnight Thursday night. By Friday night, the weather should be fine for all BBQ's and fireworks displays. Temperatures should be perfect for a mid-summer's night, mainly in the 70's to near 80, gradually slipping down later at night. We could wake up to cool mid 50's early Saturday morning in the 'burbs, so bring a sweatshirt if you plan to pull an all-nighter. We'll iron out those details as we get closer.

C's Going for it All Tonight!

2008-06-17T16:41:00.002-05:00

TUESDAY- Tonight is a big night in Boston sports history, game 6 of the NBA Finals for the Celtics and LA Lakers. Boston is up 3-2 on the series and tonight the Celtics will look to end the series at the Garden for the first time in over 20 years. Bringing back the glory. This afternoon there were a few thunderstorms around, none severe and there could be a few more in the coming hours, but they should dwindle down soon. Temperatures really weren't that bad today with highs getting right around 80 degrees once again with mostly sunny skies where I live today. There were a few storms that hit Worcester, Route 2 near Littleton, and Brockton to Providence. Tomorrow will be another day with sunny breaks, clouds, and showers. Tomorrow should be the coolest day of the next bunch with highs in the upper 60's, but eventually we will warm up as we head towards the weekend. Thursday through Friday will be more of the same, scattered showers and thunderstorms with cool temperatures.

This weekend looks nice with temperatures in the upper 70's on Saturday and then around 80 on Sunday before a coastal storm, believe it or not, pulses up the eastern seaboard to affect us on Monday and Monday afternoon with some heavy rains and some wind with cool temperatures. Monday looks like it has the potential to be a total washout. No washouts until then and again, GOOD LUCK C's!

Not a Washout...

2008-06-16T09:28:00.002-05:00

MONDAY- The next few days will not be washouts by any means, but they will not be the best days to have off as well. This afternoon there is a chance, a good chance, of showers and thunderstorms here in SNE. Some of the storms could be locally strong to severe, especially in western New England; western CT, MA, and VT. The storms should weaken as they enter the more stable environment here in eastern New England. These storms will produce vivid frequent lightning, heavy rainfall, strong winds in excess of 55mph, and large hail. We will repeat this again tomorrow, but the thunderstorms will likely not reach severe levels, although it is still possible especially in western New England once again. Wednesday will be our cool day, not as cool as our Sunday here in eastern New England when temperatures struggled to get over 60 degrees here yesterday. I am talking about upper 60's to around 70 cool on Wednesday. Thursday will be our last showery day before we dry out for the weekend and warm up by Saturday and Sunday into the 80's, which is right about normal temperature-wise this time of year here in SNE.

Why are we seeing so many showers this week?

The reason we are seeing so many showers this week is because there is an upper level low pressure system spinning up over and north of Northern New England. This counterclockwise spin keeps the atmosphere is a state of instability that will spark showers and thunderstorms. Since upper level lows are cold systems, there will always be the chance of very strong winds associated with these storms and small hail, penny sized, is always possible. They will be small potent, quick hitting storms. Some may get up to severe levels, as they could this afternoon.

Unsettled Times...

2008-06-13T12:01:00.002-05:00

FRIDAY- Today is one more day of perfect weather. Then we will start to get into unsettled times for what seems to be for at least a week. First tomorrow will be a day that features sun in the morning and temperatures that will rise to around 80 degrees. A line of thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to severe, will move through our area later tomorrow night, similar to Tuesday night, and then we will see the cold front stall out on the shore early Sunday morning that will allow for rain showers to train over SNE much of Sunday morning. Eastern New England has the best chance of rain early Sunday morning for Father's Day. Temperatures will be quite cool with highs in the mid 60's along the coast to around 70 inland. Some places on the Cape will struggle to get up to 60 degrees on Sunday. Then we have to look towards an unsettled stretch for quite a period...showery and cool weather for days.

This will all be courtesy of an upper level low in eastern Ontario that will keep the atmosphere unsettled and cold aloft and coupled with daytime heating will always bubble up some instability showers and maybe a thunderstorm through the period. The afternoon hours will be the cloudiest and for this, afternoon temperatures will struggle to come up over 70 degrees Tuesday through the end of the week. Overnight temperatures will be chilly and allow us to rest the air conditioners for a while, which is a good thing in my point of view.

I'm seeing indications that we could stay cooler than normal for about the next two weeks before we heat up again in the last days of June and heading into the Fourth of July holiday.

A Couple More Days...

2008-06-08T12:08:00.002-05:00

Day 2 of the heat. Boston hit 93 degrees yesterday around 6PM and has already hit 90 as of the noon hour today, Sunday. Tomorrow will make it an official heat wave for Boston, three consecutive days of 90+. Tomorrow there will be no question that we will soar well into the 90s. I am thinking that today, Sunday, we will be in the 92-97 degree range for SNE, with scattered thunderstorms cooling us off later this afternoon and early evening. If we get some good showers later this afternoon, we will easily see dewpoints that are currently around 70, spike to the mid to perhaps upper 70s. Either way it's mighty oppressive out there today. Tomorrow I am going for a high in SNE of 95-100 degrees, going for 97 as a region average. Tuesday will be a degree cooler, but still very warm and oppressive with thunderstorms moving into our area late afternoon and overnight that will finally put an end to this oppressive air. By Wednesday we will fall back to around 80 degrees will low humidity and then we will see nice refreshing breezes from north of the border later this week as temperatures will be in the 70s with lows getting back to levels where we will be able to open up the windows.

An interesting side note, Boston's low temperature last night was a steamy 77 degrees. That is some 3 degrees warmer than our average DAYTIME high temperature for this time of year. I thought that was kind of cool. Boston will likely stay in the mid to upper 70's overnight tonight and tomorrow night into Tuesday morning, low temperatures may stay right around of slightly over 80 degrees, for an OVERNIGHT LOW! Don't worry though, by Friday morning, our suburbs could fall all the way back into the 40s overnight. I wouldn't mind that right about now.

The Heat is On!

2008-06-07T09:25:00.002-05:00

We are really starting to heat up this Saturday morning. The sun is shining and the temperatures are quickly rebounding from the low 60's of this morning. We will see them continue to come over 80 degrees by midday and then we will flirt with 90 by later this afternoon. The only thing that could stop many from surpassing 90 today would be building clouds and the threat of a few afternoon thunderstorms developing, mainly north of the Pike and along the Pike. A few of these storms may be severe, but the main threat will just be heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds. Not everyone will see these storms, so don't go canceling outdoor plans, but just keep an eye to the western sky. Look out for some darkening clouds. Tomorrow will be a much better day with highs in the low 90's and no threat of thunderstorms. The humidity will be up to oppressive levels, so that high of 91 will feel more like 97 tomorrow in Boston. Our big hot day will peak on Monday as highs will be in the mid and upper 90's. Tuesday will be one more day of hot 90 degree weather before cooling thunderstorms bring the cooler weather in for later in the week. Highs on Wednesday will cool into the low 80's before we further drop into the 70's by the end of the week and high pressure will be moving overhead to allow for cooling sea breeze. Boston and along the coast will likely stay in the low 70's for both Thursday and Friday.

Dangerous Heat Wave Hours Away

2008-06-06T10:27:00.002-05:00

Get that A/C in right now! That is what I would suggest to anyone who has yet to put their A/C in. You will definitely need it the next several days. We are going from 50s/60s straight to middle 90's tomorrow afternoon. Tomorrow I am going for a high of 94 degrees in the city of Boston. The Cape will be cooler, as through much of this heat wave, as they will be in the upper 70's to low 80's throughout this first official heat wave for SNE. So, if you want a place to escape the heat, go to the Cape and the Islands because they will get use of natural air conditioning, but they will not be able to escape the humidity that will skyrocket after tomorrow's strong late afternoon storms. Everyone is fair game for a thunderstorm and downpour tomorrow afternoon say after 5PM. It may actually consolidate into a line of thunderstorms that could produce heavy rainfall, strong gusty winds, and vivid lightning. That will pass to allow for a stuffy night tomorrow night. Lows will have a hard time getting out of the upper 60's to low 70's.

Sunday is more of the same with highs getting into the middle 90's once again. It may be a degree or two hotter than Saturday as there will be less of a chance to cool from clouds and thunderstorms, but the threat will still be there, just minimized. The humidity will be high on Sunday and once again we will not cool down overnight. Low temperatures will hover in the middle 70's in Boston and around 70 in the suburbs.

Then we will have the hottest day of the past couple of summers. I am going for an all out 100 degrees for a SNE average. Some of the latest guidance has come back from this extreme heat idea, but I am still going for it unless we continue to see evidence to reduce these numbers. However, for now, I am going upper 90's to around 100 degrees in Boston, metrowest will likely come between 98-102 degrees. Again, escape to the Cape where they will be 'cool' into the middle 80's. I do not think we will see thunder because the air above us will be so warm that there will be no instability, just one uniform HOT airmass forming a 'cap.' This 'cap' will save us from afternoon thunderstorms. We will probably just stay sunny and baking all day long. Tuesday is the last real hot day, middle 90's, before late afternoon thunderstorms, likely severe, move across SNE to bring back some more seasonable air.

Last words, put in that air conditioner tonight!

Heat Wave Looms

2008-06-05T11:31:00.003-05:00

After the past couple of days with highs in the upper 50's to low 60's with persistent drizzle and light rain on a northeast wind, we are finally going to see the sun again and warmer temperatures. It will be a gradual step up for tomorrow with a return to the sun and temperatures back up to seasonable levels, mainly the low 70's along the shore and mid 70's inland. There is still the chance of a scattered shower here tomorrow, but they will be few and far between. Tomorrow will be a day where you will likely wake up to a few morning clouds and then have mainly cloudy skies in the afternoon as a warm front will try to move through the area later tomorrow evening and overnight. That is when we could see a few scattered showers and thunderstorms, but warm fronts do not usually have severe weather associated with them in our area due to the marine influence and the fact that we are going from marine air to warmer air. To get the big thunderstorms all the way to the coast we need extreme heat and humidity and a massive cold front coming from the WNW to get us with our big boomers. The ocean usually saves us from seeing the big storms like we see in the Midwest.

The heat wave starts on Saturday as we will get into the low 90's just away from the coast, probably mid-upper 80's for Boston and the immediate shore. We will all go into the low-mid 90's on Sunday and Monday even to the coast and the humidity will come way up as well. Early indications suggest that we could see dewpoints come up between 65-70+. That could push heat indices all the way to 100 degrees by Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will bring the less humid, yet still warm conditions for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Rainy Wednesday before the Heat Turns WAY UP!

2008-06-03T15:50:00.002-05:00

TUESDAY UPDATE: Are you enjoying today's warm temperatures? Today, highs got into the mid and upper 80's for much of SNE with low humidity. That is all about to be replaced with cooler weather with the chance of rain showers tomorrow before we really start to heat way up for this weekend and into early next week. We have the beginnings of what could be an extended intense heat wave on the way to the eastern part of the lower 48. We could be talking about a real heat wave with temperatures getting well into the 90's for three or more consecutive days. We could be talking mid and upper 90's by the time we are all said and done by early to the middle part of next week. First, tomorrow we will have some rain showers to contend with. The rain will begin in earnest after noontime and we will see a general rainfall with a few embedded heavier downpours. That should come to an end later in the evening and overnight to yield a partly cloudy, yet cool Thursday with onshore winds. Highs will be in the mid 60's for eastern SNE with low 70's well inland. Friday is the day before the real heat, around 80, before we get baking for the weekend. Low 90's by Saturday and mid 90's as we head into the latter half of the weekend and into early next week.

If you haven't put in that A/C yet, I suggest you get it in in the next couple of days. It's going to be dangerous heat and humidity this weekend. Only a few more days to get prepared.

Great End of Week, Shaky Weekend for Graduations

2008-05-28T21:04:00.002-05:00

WEDNESDAY UPDATE...

We have ourselves a very nice couple of days coming up for Thursday and Friday. We will see totally sunny skies and temperatures warming up to near 80 degrees after our cool day today with temperatures staying in the mid and upper 60's in SNE. Tonight will be a chilly night with mid to upper 30's in the coldest valleys, but rebound some 30 to 40 degrees to make it to tomorrow's high temperatures. Friday will be slightly cooler, but still a knock out day, sunny and mid 70's with low humidity. Then we get a little shaky for Saturday as we will have some scattered thundershowers that could become a general period of light rain. That should come to an end early Sunday morning, but we could still see a shower on Sunday, with mostly cloudy skies and a wind off the water, keeping temperatures coolest at the coast, low 60's, while areas in the CT River Valley could get as high as 70 degrees or higher. Monday is one more day of coolish conditions with the chance of a few showers and highs in the mid 60's. Then we should start to warm up and see highs rebound back into the 70's to get into the middle part of next week.

Memorial Day Weekend, Start of Summer

2008-05-24T13:36:00.002-05:00

Happy Memorial Day weekend! Can you believe it? We are already half way through this 2008 calender year and are now entering the 'unofficial' start to the 2008 summer season. I don't know how many of you went off to the mountains or beaches this holiday weekend with gas prices up over $4.00/gallon, but if you did, you picked a winner. Today, Saturday is a little bit cloudy, but still nice temperature-wise, with highs getting to around 70 degrees. Tomorrow and Memorial Day Monday will be absolutely perfect with highs getting up into the mid 70's tomorrow, maybe around 70 on the eastern facing shores right on the beach, with upper 60's on the south facing coasts, but on Monday we will all bake with a one day stand of sunny skies and highs getting into the mid and upper 80's metrowest and eastern facing beaches, but low 70's on the Cape and mid 60's South Coast. The transition day will be on Tuesday with a few showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon as a cold front comes through to return us to below normal temperature wise for the second half of this shortened workweek. We are back into the 60's for Thursday and Friday, but with the high sun angle, you will still get burned and standing in the direct sunlight with no wind, it will feel every bit as hot as an 88 degree day in July. Overnight lows get to comfortable levels, mid 40's, which will feel refreshing after perfect early summer days.

More later and I hope you all have a relaxing first weekend of 2008. Many more BBQ's to come. GO CELTICS!

Rain and Lots of it on the Way...COLD too.

2008-05-08T19:46:00.003-05:00

Its been over a month since I last posted on this site, but I came out of spring hibernation this week because there is some crazy weather that is going to affect our area starting tomorrow and continuing into next week. If you take a look at the temperatures for Monday and Tuesday of next week, your eyes are not deceiving you. Those say that the highs will be in the low 40's on Monday and only around 40 degrees on Tuesday as a coastal bomb gets going SE of southern New England. First we get to tomorrow's storm. Expect a coastal storm to develop south of New England with rains developing during the morning here. Rain will become heavy during the afternoon hours and continue to fall moderately to heavily through the overnight hours. The rain will not let up until early Saturday morning. The winds will come off the ocean and allow temperatures to get into the mid 50's before the rain starts and then during the afternoon, temperatures will cool down to the upper 40's to around 50 here in eastern New England as that is what the ocean temperatures are. Then we get a one day reprieve on Sunday with highs actually getting up to around 70 degrees with a little bit of sunshine. That is all we need this time of year, just a little bit of sun and we are pushing 70 degrees.

That is what makes it all the more remarkable for what could happen early next week, Monday and Tuesday. A coastal storm will cut itself off from the jet stream and sit off the coast with a cold pocket of air developing over the New England area. It will be a mighty cold system with even low elevations having temperatures in the low 40's with heavy windswept rains. Up over 1000-2000' here in SNE, there may actually be some wet snow mixed in with the rain in these elevated locations. Its still way too early to get into specifics with snow in May, but the big story is that its going to be very cold.

We get another brief break midweek next week before another rainmaker moves in late week with cold conditions. Its a poor outlook for outdoor activities and sports. Sorry.

Raw Sunday Leads to Springlike Week

2008-04-05T23:43:00.002-05:00

Sorry for not posting for a while, but it looks like our generally uneventful weather pattern will persist into this second week of April. Temperatures will start off very cool for this time of year tomorrow with a raw NE wind, as SNE is sandwiched in between a massive high pressure to the north and a low pressure missing us to the southeast. The 'squeeze play' will allow a NE wind to funnel in the marine influence right into SNE and against the Berkshires. Tomorrow will only be around 40 degrees along the shore to the mid 40's past Springfield. To add insult to injury, there will be bouts of drizzle dampening the ground tomorrow, especially along the coast and Cape, with a few embedded heavier showers. Don't expect much rain, just enough to wet the pavement perhaps. Winds will be out of the NE at 10-20 mph. Monday brings in some sunshine, so areas away from the coast by say 20 miles will likely get to near 50 degrees, while areas near the coast suffer from the sea breeze and stay in the low 40's. It's the time of the dreaded sea breeze. This will last through the rest of the spring and summer, but you will love it once we get water temperatures near 70 so we can get the occasional break from the heat and humidity. Right now the water is a numbing 38 degrees, so we have a ways to go still.

We will warm up by midweek and have a decent Fenway opener on Tuesday, albeit, cool at the Park with highs in the 40's. Gametime temperatures will be in the mid-upper 40's. Then we warm into the 60's later this week, with the coastline the only wildcard, but i think all of us will warm into the mid 60's on Thursday with a stronger SW wind before we all cool down going into next weekend with the possibility of more rain.

Straight from Mid-Winter to Early June

2008-03-29T12:49:00.002-05:00

Yesterday, much of SNE just missed out on what would have been a big snowstorm. The storm headed north last minute and gave SNH the heavy snow as we here in SNE got a rainy, snowy mix, accumulating no more than a coating to an inch or two. Parts of SNH came in with between 6-8" of heavy wet springtime snow. Today is a frigid mid-winter day with highs only getting to between 32-37 degrees this afternoon with a biting NW wind bringing down some flurries and wind chills down into the low 20's all day. We will wake up to a frigid morning tomorrow morning with many suburbs falling to between the lower and middle 10's, while urban centers stay in the low 20's. With less wind tomorrow, the mid 40's will feel a whole lot warmer than what the thermometer reads. Then we have a transition day on Monday with afternoon showers before the floodgates open Tuesday and we break in some sun and highs respond well into the 60's and even low 70's here in SNE. Winds will be screaming out of the SW to clear out coastal sections and keep away any cooling seabreeze, so I could see Boston being the hot spot with highs coming to between 70-75 degrees, believe it or not!! Talk about going from mid January to early June in only the matter of a couple of days!

We cool off later next week, but the damage will be done and all the snow will melt that had fallen yesterday. The warm temperatures on Tuesday should let more flowers and buds start to show on the trees come out and make it feel more like spring. What a way to welcome in April. More on this forecast tomorrow.

Winter's Last Hurrah

2008-03-27T17:03:00.002-05:00

Didn't have time to make my own snowfall map, but here is the one from newscenter five, as they have done a nice job outlining the threat for tomorrow morning through late evening. Rain and snow will develop overnight tonight and when you wake up tomorrow, there could be moderate snow falling north of Route 2 and a snowy mix south of there with marginal temperatures in the 34-36 degree range. South of Route 2, I think roads will stay all wet through the entire day. North of Route 2 is a different story where some plows may have to come out. The Boston corridor and metrowest will likely see 1-2" of sloppy wet snow that sticks to the grass. More like 2-3" in Worcester County in the highest elevations. Once you get to northern ORH Co. and southern New Hampshire where there is a WINTER STORM WARNING at this time, more like 4-5" of snow will fall with some 6-7" lollies in the SW part of NH and highest elevations.

After this snow, we have a frigid Saturday with highs in the mid 30's with biting winds, making it feel more like the mid 20's all day. But we should warm up later next week and I think we could be pushing 60 degrees by midweek next week and we may be pushing 70 degrees by next weekend. Details to be determined. We always have to be weary of backdoor cold fronts and sea breezes this time of year.

A Quiet Week for Once

2008-03-22T19:29:00.004-05:00

After getting days and days of stormy, windy weather here in SNE, it looks like we will finally be rewarded a break this week with some fair weather. I do not see any extremely windy or wet days in the next several. Tomorrow, Easter, will start off mighty frigid with temperatures in the upper 10's in suburbia and 20's in the cities. Temperatures will respond to the strong late March sun, into the mid 40's. The sunny conditions will remain into Monday with a tad cooler day, mainly in the low 40's after chilly morning temperatures in the 10's and 20's. Then we start off dry on Tuesday and may get a few showers in here after dark overnight Tuesday and early Wednesday morning here in SNE. They will be very light showers, generally under a quarter of an inch of liquid. It may be cold enough overnight in NNE for a couple inches of snow overnight Tuesday and early Wednesday morning with the passage of this clipper system. That will clear out early Wednesday and then we will return to fair weather for the rest of the week.

Thursday and Friday will be dry days with mostly sunny skies and moderating temperatures. The good news this week is that there will not be any extreme wind events like we have had to endure for the past several days, causing scattered intense damage to trees and power lines. None of that this week thankfully. Just a quiet regime, for now. More later this week.

Wednesday Morning Snow/Mix

2008-03-17T18:35:00.001-05:00

Here is a quick first call on the snow that will come down late late tomorrow night and early Wednesday morning before any kind of change to rainfall. Most of Mass north of the Pike will see some accumulating snowfall early Wednesday morning before the changeover with the hills of Worcester Co. and SNH that fare the best with snowfall. Even there it will not be all that heavy, but it will come down at the worst possible time, right at the beginning of the morning commute. Most of the snow will have fallen by 7-9AM and will be turning to a cold rain by this time. In the green, it could start as a few wet flakes and pellets of sleet before switching over to rain quickly with no accumulation, but once you move into the blue area is where you could pick up a quick coating to one inch of snow. I would bet that Boston sees some big wet flakes accumulate to a coating on grassy surfaces early Wednesday morning. The suburbs could pick up closer to an inch before his is washed away with the suburbs of Worcester picking up perhaps closer to 2" of snowfall with any heavier amounts reserved for Keene, NH and on to Concord and once you get up to North Conway, up to 2-5" of snowfall will accumulate before the switch to rain/IP and then you may switch back to snow for an additional light (1-3") accumulation later tomorrow night. Thats all for now. More later.

Quiet Tuesday, Wild Wednesday

2008-03-17T14:06:00.002-05:00

The weather and temperatures will be doing ups and downs this week. Today we are on the downside of the roller coaster, but we will be back up tomorrow with afternoon highs in the upper 40's. However, clouds will thicken tomorrow night and we will see some snow move in after midnight for the entire region, even down to the Cape. The snow will quickly transition to sleet and then sleet and rain to all rain by early morning on Wednesday, maybe allowing for a slick, icy Wednesday morning commute from Worcester points east into Boston. The warm air will be slowest to erode in the eastern areas, but it will eventually. There may even be a small snow accumulation above 500 feet, on the order of an inch and once you get above 1000' and especially 2000', you will see snowfall on the order of 1-3" in SNE. Parts of NNE will fair better snow wise with a snow to rain to snow situation and some spots will receive over six inches of snow. In SNE we will start as a mix change to rain and then have drying NW winds clear us out to have a nice, yet windy, Thursday with highs in the upper 40's to around 50 leading into the long weekend for many.

This weekend will feature mainly quiet conditions for the six state region, but it will be very chilly on both Saturday and Easter Sunday. Early morning services on Sunday will be mighty cold with temperatures in the 20's. Bundle up. Storm threats look minimal past Wednesday's storm, however. Dry and cold to round off the workweek and head into the weekend.

A Short Work Week with Lots of Weather

2008-03-16T17:26:00.003-05:00

There are no real warm temperatures on the offing for our area as we officially end winter this year. Temperatures will not be really cold, but just cool enough to make outside baseball practices a little miserable. That's March baseball in New England though. Tomorrow is the kickoff to the spring sports season here in the greater Boston area and lots of practices and tryouts will be taking place outside tomorrow afternoon after school. Tomorrow will feature cool conditions with highs generally in the low to mid 40's, but will be under the sun, so as long as you stay in the sun, it will feel quasi warm outside. The only thing that will put a spring bite to the air will be the biting NW winds associated with the monster ocean storm that we just missed today. Winds will be in the 20 to 30 mph range, making temperatures in the low 40's, feel more like 30 degrees. Tuesday will be another day where the sports teams will be able to get outside on the fields and with less wind and abundant sun in the afternoon, it won't be all that bad. Highs should get to between 45-50 degrees across the SNE area and with the sunshine and little wind, it will feel some 10 degrees warmer.

Then we will have to deal with the rain. In fact, as clouds thicken on Tuesday afternoon and lower Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning, it may actually start as a brief period (2-4 hours) of snow that mixes with some sleet and gradually changes to rainfall in the BOS metro area by midmorning Wednesday. I don't think there will be any accumulation in the lower elevations, but I would not throw out the possibility that up to 1-2" of snowfall falls in the elevated areas of Northern Worcester County up through the Manadnocks in SW NH. Further north in the White Mountains and NW Maine, I wouldn't be surprised if 2-6" fell before any kind of changeover. After the changeover in the BOS metro area, we will see heavy rain through the mid afternoon hours. All said and done, I would expect 0.75" to 1.50" of RF through the entire event that comes to an end on Wednesday night in SNE. The rain may actually change back to snow in extreme northern VT and NH and NW ME as they get some upslope snows as the low departs through the GOM. An additional 2-5" of snow is possible after the change to rain. I would not be surprised if some come close to 6-10" of accumulative snowfall in the highest mountains once this comes to an end up there in NNE.

Then we welcome in Spring here at 1:48 AM with breaking clouds and mild temperatures with a gusty NW wind. Highs should get into the upper 40's to around 50 on Thurdsay before we start to see the cold air in Canada move back into the New England region and we cool down dramatically to end off the workweek, or start the weekend, on Good Friday. Highs on Saturday will struggle to get out of the 30's and we continue to stay chilly right on into Easter Sunday. Highs look to only be around 40 degrees for early Easter dinners and will be in the upper 20's to low 30's for early morning services. The egg hunt may be a little chilly as well. You may want to move it inside this year. That's what happens when we have early Easters in March.

That is all for now. After Wednesday's storm, it looks quiet going into Easter weekend, but weather likes to change quickly around here, so stay tuned for more updates and a snowfall map for the Wednesday storm that should be posted sometime tomorrow or Tuesday. (NNE)

"Grazed"

2008-03-15T15:23:00.002-05:00

FINAL CALL 3/15 @ 4PM: The "on again, off again" storm is partially on again. We will by no means see a direct hit, as the storm will go well south of the area, but will throw some snow/rain into the southeastern part of the region. Here to the right is the worst case, snowiest scenario and its not that snowy. Worst case scenario is that we see some morning snow showers in the Boston metro and Worcester metro areas that could make it up to Nashua, NH. You will need to travel south of Brockton to see some snow accumulate. We will see coatings of snow that melt away once it stops, quite common in the darker blue region, but in the absolute worst case scenario, up to 1-2" of snow, wet gloppy snow (mashed potatoes) could accumulate. This region includes Providence, Warwick, Attleboro, Taunton, Plymouth, and down to the Bourne Bridge. Boston and northwest will be lucky to see a trace to a skim coating on the grass. It will be a borderline situation as temperatures will generally be in the 33-36 degree range for the duration, so getting this to accumulate on the roads will be all but impossible. That is all for now.

Weekend Storm a Miss; Bring on Spring!

2008-03-12T13:56:00.002-05:00

The models have put another spin on things and now we aren't looking at a good sized storm for later this weekend. In fact, there won't even be a storm for the Mid Atlantic. It looks like the blocking that would have kept this storm from heading harmlessly out to sea is not going to set up in time and we will not see the storm ride up the coast and give New England a wind plastering snowfall. Yesterday at this time, I would have gone with a moderate to heavy snowstorm, but today, I think we will just see some gusty winds and partly sunny skies. Obviously, any slight change in the track and we are right back in the game, but it doesn't look good for the storm ATTM. Sunday will be the cool day with highs in the 30's, but looking towards next week, we warm up to the mid 40's on St. Patrick's Day and are surging into the mid 50's for Tuesday and that will be good news for all the baseball and softball coaches who want to get their teams onto the fields. It looks like the fields should be dry enough to go right out next week.

Stormy Weekend?

2008-03-11T20:53:00.002-05:00

I have been watching the potential of a storm around these parts for later this weekend, right before St. Patrick's Day. The computer models have been pretty much all over the place. I really do not think that we will have a good grip on this storm until maybe 24-36 hours from now as all the elements start to come into the lower 48 and we can see how this thing wants to work out. For now the GFS and several other models that are very reliable are showing a storm affecting our area later this weekend, namely Sunday. Now this graphic from Accuweather shows the storm as it streaks across the country and they do a great job at showing this storm at the worst. It will be a fairly sizable storm system that could blow up as it nears the East Coast. This graphic shows an ominous picture of what could possibly happen. I am not going to go out on a limb with this one, because there are just too many variables right now. I don't think these variables will start to work themselves out until Thursday or even Friday afternoon.

Lastly, I should say that a few flakes will be falling from the sky. Expect some light snow falling in western Mass spreading east as it deposits a quick coating to 1/2" in some elevated areas of Worcester County. Closer to home, in eastern Mass, we will see some wet flakes to begin and then see the flakes switch to drops that will barely be enough to wet the pavement. By tomorrow afternoon, highs will be in the 40's, so no worries.

FLOOD WATCH

2008-03-06T20:57:00.002-05:00

More flooding rains are in the forecast for SNE. We have ourselves quite the storm coming at us tonight that will arrive tomorrow night and early Saturday. This storm has brought Dallas/Ft. Worth a 3-6" snowstorm this Thursday and its heading through Arkansas and the southern Ohio Valley with snowfall of 6-12" before we get to Cleveland and into Ontario where 12-24" of snow is forecast. Don't worry about snow here in SNE. We will be on the warm side of the storm, so all we have to worry about is rain. Here in SNE we will see a good 2-4" of liquid, rainfall through Saturday. Just with that we will see flooding of streets and small streams. The rain will come in two batches. The first batch will be associated with the first low pressure system tomorrow night that will feature rainy conditions with temperatures in the middle 30's overnight tomorrow. Temperatures will shoot up into the upper 40's on Saturday morning before the second knockout punch hits us late morning Saturday and early Saturday afternoon with temperatures in the 50's with heavy rain, winds, and thunderstorms rumbling through. This batch will give rain even to CNE, where 3-5" of rain is in the snowpack, so that could flood the rivers heading into the great Merrimack. Something we will have to watch.

Overall, I think catastrophic flooding will remain low because the North will likely start out as snow and wintery mix on Friday night-Saturday AM, before transitioning to rain late AM, before switching back to accumulating snow later. Portions north of North Conway-Burlington-Bangor will likely see a net gain of snowfall this weekend with accumulations likely in the 6-10" range, with snow to ice to rain to snow; a nasty layer cake that will wreak havoc on roofs and backs shoveling. The disaster will be postponed to a later date.

Thereafter, we cool down and as soon as we get temperatures cold enough for some snow, there goes the storm every other day pattern and we go sunny dry and quiet with temperatures eventually moderating. We start off awfully chilly next week with highs in the 30's for Monday, but by midweek, we are already pushing 50 once again with a storm that looks to be stalling and heading to our west by late week, which should flood the East with warm air and rain once again by next weekend? You know the pattern by now.

Flooding Rains on the Way...

2008-03-05T16:00:00.003-05:00

More rain and more rain is on the way for New England. This morning was wild with wind swept rain with a few rumbles of thunder around 7:30 AM in the Boston metro area. However, that has cleared out and in its wake we have temperatures falling from around 60F this afternoon into the 30's overnight with large puddles in our lawns. Tomorrow will be a day with light winds, but still warm with highs in the 50's. Then we look for our next storm coming in on Friday afternoon and this one will be a wet storm as well with lots of water to boot. This could be a wet storm all the way into CNE and NNE. Snowpack as close a Concord, NH is around 20" and in North Conway, we have a snowpack exceeding 50"! Water equivalencies in this astounding snowpack is over 10" of water! Once we get this to melt, there is going to be MAJOR problems to life and property. Its a disaster in the making, basically. It may not unfold this weekend, but we will just be delaying the inevitable. This weekend's storm will have between 2-4" of RAIN associated with it. Most of this rain will be absorbed into the deep snowpack up north, but its getting to the point where measures will be needed to be taken to insure life and property. Thereafter we cool down back into the 30's heading into the second full week of March and the last full week of winter.

Melting Snow

2008-03-02T15:53:00.002-05:00

March came in with a bang yesterday with snow and wind, but today the sun is out and the wind is blowing, but it doesn't feel that bad and hey the sun doesn't go down until after half past 5. That ain't too bad. We had some melting snow today with highs getting around 40, but we will start to have bare spots in SNE tomorrow, especially eastern SNE as highs will rocket to the lower 50's, under partly cloudy skies. Then we need to talk about some rainfall. We see the rain move in Tuesday afternoon. The residual snow will stop the warm front from making it past NYC Tuesday afternoon, so most of the day will be in the upper 30's in interior SNE, while the south coast and Cape will see temperatures shoot up into the 50's by late evening. That warm air will erode the fog with a southerly wind Tuesday night in the Boston metro area and this will lead us to a warm and wet Wednesday with highs in the 50's, and mid 50's at that. Rainfall will come down very heavily for the first part of the day on Wednesday and when all is said and done, about 1-3" of rainfall will fall, totally obliterating the snowpack here in SNE. We will postpone the inevitable in NNE as there it will be a very cold rain that gets absorbed into the snowpack or it will be more snow added to the 'fire.' We'll save the problem for another day.

That storm passes through on Wednesday night and we return to seasonable weather on Thursday with highs in the mid 40's. We shoot up to the 50's for a one day stand on Friday with a clipper heading to our NW, which will allow for downsloping winds on Friday, which will shoot SNE into the 50's, while far NNE will see a couple inches of snow. Then we cool again by Saturday.

A Bust for Many Last Night

2008-03-01T15:13:00.004-05:00

Well, that forecast did not really work out for eastern Massachusetts last night and this morning. That pesky coastal front left all the good snow and lift out in Worcester County, leaving eastern parts warmer and with less QPF. Generally in eastern Mass we saw between 2-3" of snow with a few 4" amounts north of Wilmington. Out in Worcester we had many reports of 6-8" of snowfall, where it was colder and had more precipitation. Now it is wrapping up with a few snow showers going through the area with temperatures in the mid 30's, so there will be no sticking. Now we look to tomorrow and the rest of the upcoming week. Tomorrow will feature breezy conditions with winds gusting over 30 mph, but temperatures will rebound into the low 40's with a high March sun angle, it will feel warm. We warm up even more on Monday, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures getting up to 50 degrees.

A storm will cut to our west and we will see a rainstorm with very mild temperatures on Tuesday with rain moving into the area in the afternoon and becoming heavy later in the evening and nighttime. We could see areas pick up between 2-3" of rainfall in SNE, while the northern mountains of Maine will see over a foot of snow. Like they need it. Many spots in NNE picked up 8-14" with this last storm that busted in SNE this morning. Temperatures on Tuesday will push in the mid to perhaps upper 50's with maybe somebody nudging 60 degrees.

We will cool off on Wednesday, back into the 40's, but the damage will have already been done here in SNE and all the snow will be all but gone in our backyards. Later in the week, we have to watch a storm to our south that could come up the coast, but latest indicationns are that it will head just out to sea, barely grazing the South Coast. This will have to be monitored, but doesn't look like a major threat ATTM.

'The Little Clipper that Could'

2008-02-28T14:48:00.003-05:00

FIRST & FINAL CALL 2/28 @ 3PM: Here is my first call for the clipper that could. This clipper will come near the coastline and really get its act together upon hitting the above normal water temperatures. We will have a legit bomb go off once the storm starts to pass Boston Harbor and head into the GOM, where it will absolutely whallop Downeast ME with well over a foot of snow. Further down south we will still deal with a fairly significant snowstorm. For areas in southern CT, RI, and SE MA; some mixing will get into the snow and warm air will flood the midlevels where it will change snow over to rain, after a start to snow. Here is where I think a general 1-3" of snow will fall from this in the beginning of the storm before most of it will actually get washed away overnight Friday into early Saturday morning. Further north you will get into a general swath of 3-6" of snowfall with a heavier band of 5-10" of snow that will encompass Worcester, Middlesex, and Essex counties. I would not at all be surprised to see of few lollies of 12" or more in this 5-10" band that extends into the Lakes and White Mountains of NH and into ME before you get to that area in DEM which could see closer to 12-18" of windwhipped snowfall that could qualify as a blizzard. You guys just can't catch a break up there. Tuesday night many areas saw 6-12" up here in NNE and then saw another 2-4" with yesterday's 'Norlun' event and now we are adding up to another 10-12" of snow on top of everything else. Amazing. Beware of snow on the roofs because we could get some heavy rains for all of New England early next week which will put a large strain on the roofs caked in snow.

BOTTOM LINE....

WHEN: Starts from SW to NE. First in western New England around 7-9PM and quickly spread east into the BOS metro area anytime between 8-10PM. It will move into NNE later after midnight. It lasts until early to mid morning on Saturday in SNE, ending around noon as a few flurries in BOS metro and later in the afternoon in ME, but DEM could see snow linger past dark, with whipping and blowing snow as well up there.

WINDS: Winds will not be the big deal in SNE, but once that storm starts to get going in the GOM, winds will be breezy after the storm departs Saturday PM in SNE, but ME will see heavy snow and wind to create near blizzard conditions in DEM. Winds could gust over 40 mph here during the peak of the storm.

IMPACT ON TRAVEL: HIGH...travel later Friday night should go downhill, but the evening commute should be fine with the snow starting after the commute in Boston, but may start in the latter part of the commute in Hartford. Late night driving and overnight and wee hours of Saturday morning will feature horrible driving condtions, barring the Cape where it will have changed to mostly rain.

CITY TO CITY FORECAST

In Massachusetts: Boston 5", Worcester 8", Acton 8", Springfield 5", Plymouth 3", Hyannis 2", Nantucket 1", Methuen 8", Lowell 7"

In Connecticut: Hartford 4", Tolland 6", Shelton 2"

In Rhode Island: Providence 3", Warwick 4", Newport 1"

In New Hampshire: Concord 7", Manchester 8", Nashua 7", North Conway 10", Laconia 9"

In Maine: Portland 8", Bangor 12", Augusta 12", Princeton 16", Caribou 10"

That is it for now...Watches should be going up at any time, probably north of the Pike later this afternoon. Something to watch for.

Snow on the Way...

2008-02-27T14:30:00.002-05:00

More snow is on the way for SNE and all of New England to round off this week. First we have to get through today's scattered snow showers and flurries, which could amount to 1-3" in the mountains of VT, NH, and ME. Further south, just a few flurries will be spotted from town to town. This will usher in some mid wintertime type cold as tomorrow will stay in the 20's for highs. Morning temperatures will be around 10 above tomorrow and in the single digits on Friday morning ahead of a 'clipper' type system moves by our area later on Friday afternoon and evening, which will deposit a quick 1-4" across the area. The ocean may try to enhance the snowfall along the coast, east of Worcester and that may make snowfall accumulations more widespread in the 4-6" range, with 6" reserved for the North Shore and Merrimack Valley. Thats a long shot, but still possible. We will actually warm up on Saturday and heading into Sunday we really start to warm into the 40's before we get a very mild Monday with highs in the mid 50's ahead of a rainstorm that will cut to our west.