tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21103587.post4969352002325539821..comments2023-10-30T04:24:15.488-05:00Comments on Southern New England Weather: Quiet Weather Dominates Into Next WeekUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21103587.post-8601036976494173892006-11-18T18:47:00.000-05:002006-11-18T18:47:00.000-05:00ERIC-My birthday's Dec. 18, will we have snow on t...ERIC-My birthday's Dec. 18, will we have snow on the ground? <br /><br />For the 24-25th?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21103587.post-14740850860232230882006-11-18T18:46:00.000-05:002006-11-18T18:46:00.000-05:00ERIC- Its finally cold out there. Are you buying ...ERIC- Its finally cold out there. Are you buying into the TV forecasts, Ray and Andrew of nearing 60 by the end of next week?<br /><br />No real cold till Christmas?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21103587.post-2428748160385584142006-11-18T18:04:00.000-05:002006-11-18T18:04:00.000-05:00Yup I agree with you....if I am not mistaken 2002-...Yup I agree with you....if I am not mistaken 2002-2003 was a setup similar to this one...and forecasts were similar to this year's and we wound up with 6 FEET of snow in Boston..with the President's Day Weekend Blizzard dropping 1-2 feet of snow from DC to Boston.E.H. Bostonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09768137219763251292noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21103587.post-19349680876154748632006-11-18T15:36:00.000-05:002006-11-18T15:36:00.000-05:00RAY- Andrew, el Nino is a GOOD thing for snow in t...RAY- Andrew, el Nino is a GOOD thing for snow in the east, of course there have been some years in which it became very strong and killed the winter, but that will NOT happen this year! 1)There has NEVER been an el Nino that developed as late as this one has and gone on to be strong! 2)Even if it were to become strong, which is possible but historicaly unlikely, the atmosphere would not experience strong el Nino conditions until the spring because of the lag! We will have a moderate el Nino this winter, not strong. In conclusion, warm ENSO events (el Nino) average more snowfall in SNE than ENSO neutral and cool ENSO events (la Nina), the only exception is in strong Ninos, weak and moderate Ninos are generally favorable. The only way that this winter will end up crappy is if the NAO averages very positive.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21103587.post-69613376385794049312006-11-18T11:08:00.000-05:002006-11-18T11:08:00.000-05:00But you have to agree that that warming off the So...But you have to agree that that warming off the South American coast is a tell tale sign of El Nino...<br /><br />We may not be getting directly affected by it now, but it will start to play a role in the L48 forecast if it does indeed gets stronger.E.H. Bostonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09768137219763251292noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21103587.post-59212943635262455512006-11-18T11:06:00.000-05:002006-11-18T11:06:00.000-05:00Yes, I agree with you...in the fact that the cold ...Yes, I agree with you...in the fact that the cold has not been able to penetrate southward because of this fast paced jet stream slamming into the PNW and I do believe that Seattle has had the wettest November on record so far, I'll check my sources, and this is forcing mild marine Pacific air across the nation, modifying any type of cold we do occasionally get from Canada. <br /><br />And yes, there is cold in Canada, and Alaska. They have been FRIGID with temps way below zero for a while. This cold is building and as I read on the Eastern WX Forum, this will likely come at us in Jan or Feb.<br /><br />We'll see.E.H. Bostonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09768137219763251292noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21103587.post-153837249550279102006-11-18T10:30:00.000-05:002006-11-18T10:30:00.000-05:00RAY- I meant once the EPO falls, not rises.RAY- I meant once the EPO falls, not rises.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21103587.post-32807703766052863862006-11-18T08:33:00.000-05:002006-11-18T08:33:00.000-05:00RAY- FWIW, the cold is not being "bottled" up nort...RAY- FWIW, the cold is not being "bottled" up north because of the el Nino, this is directly attributed to the Pacific fire hose inducing +EPO, once the EPO rises the warmth will abate. This is what happened last year, but the difference is that it happened in Jan as opposed to Nov, and this time around there IS cold in Canada and Alaska...last year there wasn't. The reason that it is quite folly to attribute this warmth to the +ENSO is that the damn thing isn't even effecting us yet, the PDO is negative and there is no split flow as of yet, the ENSO effects will likely commence in Dec once the lag runs its course. The rcord setting rains in the PNW this month are actually indicative of la Nina.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21103587.post-71740183219794593262006-11-18T02:39:00.000-05:002006-11-18T02:39:00.000-05:00RAY-Andrew, I concede the fact that warmth in Nino...RAY-Andrew, I concede the fact that warmth in Nino region 1.2 is not a good sign for a snowy winter, but I do not think that this will become a strong Nino, thus you not throwing in the towel is the prudent choice! I will take my chances on high latitude blocking returning the latter half of Dec provided the Nino does not become strong, 1.2 is very unstable and will probably cool relativley rapidly.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com